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370 comments on DrumBeat: June 16, 2008
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370 comments on DrumBeat: June 16, 2008
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Most compacts and subcompacts could and probably evntually will be converted to EVs. Most owners won't be able to afford many batteries, so their range may be limited to only a few miles per day. Even that might be enough to continue to provide a lot of people with at least a little bit of mobility - enough to get to the grocery store or nearest mass transit node and back in bad weather, at least. These will have to do for a lot of people until enough affordable NEVs and other small vehicles per above become available.
Sounds like you think we are going to get through this. What about other such problems like spare parts, lubrication, no job to go to, no food at said grocery store etc.
No. It sounds like he thinks there are some possibilities out there. BB's remember?
"We'll get through this.." accuses him of concluding that 'Everyone' will, and perhaps that it should be relatively easy or painless. But he never said any of that. Some will, some won't, your mileage and your luck may certainly vary. He did say 'most', but cut him some slack, eh? Hyperbolic assumptions turns so many of these threads into wide-eyed "oh yah?"-fests.
If I can pull off an EV conversion, it probably won't serve just as a typical private car or van/pickup truck (one of my hopes..), but will be in service more likely as a taxicab, shared use for the extended family, or as a rental/delivery vehicle.
As far as parts and lubrication, EV's are reputed to have much lower maintenance needs, and as they will probably travel far fewer miles, the tires and grease and such needs will likely be lowered as well.
Bob
(Responding also to WNC Observer)
The problem with electrifying a normal car, even a subcompact, in the future years is going to be battery supply. It takes A LOT of batteries to get a fairly meager range. A retrofitted civic using lead-acid will have much of its cargo space devoured by batteries, and only have maybe a 50 mile range. The Sparrow/NMG can get that kind of range from 13 PbA's (and they're not really high Amp-hour either). Super390 did some calculations on what it would take to equip the VW 1 liter with batteries for a decent range and the result was pretty low. The more efficient the vehicle the fewer batteries are necessary. This has double impact in not only reducing initial cost, but operating costs (fewer batteries to replace, less electricity needed)...but perhaps the greatest effect is by using fewer, there are more to go around - 'cause you know there are going to be shortages.
As an aside, I think one of of the biggest things that killed the Corbin Sparrow was that it only had one seat - not room for even a single passenger. Gas being dirt cheap was probably not good for it either. Initial pricing was about $14,000. It's now, under Myers Motors, something incomprehensible (like $30,000 or such).
The shops are a mile from where I live, and the town centre two.
I figure a 6 mile range ought to be possible on my VW Polo.
Most of the conversions will be for very, very local use.
If they bring out decent electric trike I will use that instead.
Any purpose-built NEV is likely to outperform any conversion car in terms of range per battery. The problem is, though, that new purpose-built NEVs are likely to be unaffordable for much of the lower tier of the population. If they have or can acquire that old civic, round up a few batteries, and can afford the conversion kit, they might just have enough battery capacity to make short trips. Yes, they could walk or bike, but when they are trying to make it back and forth to the nearest mass transit station or to the store in a driving rain or snowstorm, that is expecting a lot of them. Even if it takes two or three days to recharge on a trickle charger, and even if it can only creep along at 10-15mph for a few miles, any motorized wheels at all would be a considerable advantage over none at all.
I'm reasonably confident that battery technology will take off pretty well, with the huge impetus given by expensive oil. Toyota and their excellent production engineering will likely take a lot of cost out of lithium batteries with full, multi million mass-production, whereas the addition of super capacitors to humble lead-acid batteries by avoiding deep discharge should massively increase their lives.
Probably the way to go will be some sort of purpose built EV, bike, trike or whatever, but for very low mileage drivers a conversion may be the best option if they don't fancy getting wet in the rain.
I don't think I buy that, except for those who are physically incapable of walking or biking.
The way I see it...the benefit of having a car will be falling, while the cost increases. Eventually, it will reach the point where ordinary people won't want to spend the money on a car, even if they can afford it.
Assuming that one is serviced by a robust and frequent mass transit system consisting of buses, street cars, trollies, etc., and assuming that no transit stop is more than ten minutes from where people live, I think we should move to banning all private autos, NEVs or not, unless the person is certified to be handicapped. Even in this case, pick up services could be available, which already exist in many locations.
From personal experience, it is generally not worth messing with a car, even if electric, if one has access to an excellent transit system. And also from personal experience, when I did not have a car, it made it very easy to lose weight and to improve my health in general. The Dutch recognize this.
My mom is disabled, works harder than most people without a disability, and has had to use public transportation before. It's more than a hassle when you are disabled. Often you have to wait for hours to be picked up. Sometimes people get stuck at locations because the drivers go to the wrong entrances of buildings and quickly leave when they don't find the person waiting. Handicapped equipped taxis are often used for spare capacity and they often don't carry the additional insurance required beyond the initial vetting that they must go through to become authorized. The drivers frequently drive too quickly over bumpy roads which causes things like bumped heads, muscle strains, or worse. Sadly there is often little recourse for those who depend most upon these services.
She has a handicapped equipped vehicle which the state paid to retrofit. With the cost of filling up the tank rising from $50 to $70, it's enticing for her to use public transportation, but the damage and inconvenience caused far outweighs the benefits. I fear that at some point it will become the only available option. Reform of the system isn't easy in a market ruled by a public transportation cartel whom the public officials will bow to. Really the only hope is lawsuits or undercover news investigations, but what level of suffering will be inflicted upon the people who depend on these programs to try to lead a productive life?
My sympathy and empathy.
More later.
Alan