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How much of the ~9 mbpd do you think is allocated to maintain the income of the Saudi upper class? Can they actually let the internal consumption go to 4 mbpd?
I have suggested Phase One and Phase Two declines. In Phase One, cash flow from export sales increases, because oil prices go up faster than net oil exports decline. In Phase Two, oil price increases can't offset the export declines. We would expect to see a positive feedback loop in Phase One.
Perhaps "Phase Two" should be split:
Phase 1: Revenues increase as prices rise faster than export declines.
Phase 2: Revenues decrease causing rate of domestic consumption increase to slow, but overall domestic consumption still increases; net exports decline at faster rate than geologically-driven decline.
Phase 3: Revenues decrease rapidly enough to cause overall domestic consumption to decline; net exports decline at a slower rate than geologically-driven decline.
I think that Phase Three would be the point at which a lot of remaining world trade consists of net energy exporters trading energy for food and other essential goods.
At what point do we think the UK will get to Phase 3?
The UK still has oil for a while, we could export again if we stopped consuming so much.
Maybe food is more important than oil - we might have to export oil just to get enough to eat if other countries won't loan us the money?