177 comments on Peak Oil Media: Simmons Says Raised Saudi Oil Output Is 'Drop in Bucket' on Bloomberg
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177 comments on Peak Oil Media: Simmons Says Raised Saudi Oil Output Is 'Drop in Bucket' on Bloomberg
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I will do my best to explain this to you in a rational, logical method that even you can follow. As we call agree, oil is a fungible product.
Lets look at a facsimile of real world oil production:
Global oil production 86 million barrels per day.
Global oil exports are 38 million barrels per day.
Lets look at the hypothetical country X.
Country X produces 3 million barrels of oil internally.
Country X consumes 2 million barrels per day.
Country X exports 1 million barrels per day.
Following me so far?
Country X subsidizes fuel prices, making them one half the global average.
Country X ends subsidies and its citizens must then pay the world price.
Country X citizens cut back on consumption, and now only use 1.5 million barrels per day.
Country X now exports 1.5 million barrels per day.
Still with me? What does this do to our global oil picture?
Global oil production 86 million barrels per day.
Global oil exports are 38.5 million barrels per day.
That gives us 500,000 barrels per day 'extra' oil on the world market in the form of exports. If that isn't an example of the ELM in reverse, I do not know what is.
And when some oil-exporting country actually does cut subsidies, let us know.
You said China could increase net exports.
But now its "Country X".
Can't you just admit you were wrong?
this is barely related to your original point, your argument was that China (net importer) could increase world exports by decreasing consumption.
Your argument above is about an net exporting country cutting consumption, that's not happening, Most of the large exporters have subsidies still (and are very unlikely to stop them, it would be silly to).
Even if what you said were true, it's not even applicable to this argument...nice try though...