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99 comments on Can A 'Shadow OPEC' of 'Global Guerrillas' Set Global Oil Prices?

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jeffvail on June 18, 2008 - 11:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Geological peaking happens without regard to geopolitical issues, but I think the relevance of this Shadow-OPEC concept is twofold:

1) geological peaking transforms what would be a negative geopolitical feedback-loop into a positive feedback-loop (if they could, producers would just produce elsewhere when geopolitical troubles pop up); and

2) these geopolitical feedback-loops have the potential to dramatically accelerate geologically-driven declines.

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hugho on June 18, 2008 - 11:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Jeff, this comment by John Robb seems a recapitulation of comments you have made in the past vis a vis your construct of RHISOME. I would hope you could amplify your comments on John's work, you know Jeff: contrast and compare....

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jeffvail on June 18, 2008 - 11:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Probably more accurate to say that John Robb's writings have been a significant influence in my formulation of rhizome. I would contrast "rhizome" as a theory of organization with Robb's "Global Guerrillas" concept as a geopolitical phenomenon that involves some of the same organizational principles at its core.

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SwordsOfDamocles on June 18, 2008 - 1:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Jeff,

I am a huge fan of your rhizome networks idea, I think trying to do build wind, solar and geothermal is ridiculous if we are not planning to end the growth paradigm. Do you have a link to any of your papers explaining what sufficient negative feedbacks you would need in place to keep it resorting to increasing hierarchy?

Thanks,
Crews

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jeffvail on June 18, 2008 - 1:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The link above (here) probably has most of my writing on buffering these positive feedback-loops, though I haven't done a good job of framing the issue that way--something I plan to work on. I think one key is the development of localized/individualized self-sufficiency (at least in key areas), but I've certainly drawn a lot of criticism with that argument (particularly the placing the situs of self-sufficiency at the individual/family level instead of the community/national level). I stand by the theory, though.

Interestingly, John Robb has also addressed buffering these positive feedback-loops. See his posts on his concept of Resilient Community. Robb places the situs of self-sufficiency at the community level, and adds some interesting notions of platform engineering, distributed manufacturing, etc.

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davebygolly on June 18, 2008 - 3:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

2) these geopolitical feedback-loops have the potential to dramatically accelerate geologically-driven declines.

I agree, but not about just or precisely THESE geo-political feedback loops. War is part of a geopolitical feedback loop, and this is certainly going to directly hasten decline and the effects of decline.

Our only hope as a species is to get ahead of the decline, i.e. decrease our consumption of non-renewables ahead of decline rates. War and the threat of war is the chief impediment to any such program.

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99 comments on Can A 'Shadow OPEC' of 'Global Guerrillas' Set Global Oil Prices?

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