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Of course it would have no effect on prices or aggregate supply. That was never the point. The point is: a decent-size offshore find, in the realm of 1 billion barrels recoverable at low cost/high EROI, would have a BIG EFFECT on the profitability of the US oil company that found it.
I have to disagree that 250kbbl/day for 12 years would be insignificant. That EIA graph is pure fantasy. It would require California and the Eastern GOM just to flatten the curve. The rise shown just isn't going to happen. Somebody upthread claimed the new areas could double offshore production in 2030. I thinks that's a pessimistic take on existing areas, but I can't see the new areas being less than 25 or 30% by then. Which we flippin' need to eg run the diesel worktrains for the electrification projects.