Matt B,

I've been following your posts with some interest--nice to get your perspective.

Keep this reality in mind about Peak Oil:

Right now, even if peak is currently underway, humanity is producing and utilizing more energy than ever before in the entire history of the species. With so much energy being used, much can and is happening. The "world" is going zoooom as never before.

Such is the reality of life at Hubbert's peak: The shock of energy scarcity "sneaks" up at a time when there's so much abundance. Life goes on pretty much normally and then the oil-production downturn arrives. Like a storm arriving in the night, Peak Oil engulfs the unaware. The late Bakhtiari's "four transitions" outline this concept pretty well. The first one, right at peak, is the most like BAU. After that, the world as we know it is expected to change in a myraid unexpected ways. All in a matter of years (approximately 3-4 years per transition by Bakhtiari's estimation).

To anthropomorphize, Peak Oil by its nature is most deceptive.

-best,

Wolf in YVR BC

Thanks Wolf, I appreciate it (indeed, have always been very grateful in the level of detail in the replies as I fumble my way through this!).

Your storm-engulfing-the-unaware analogy is fantasic! Never thought of it like that. Guess I need to start finding the ropes to tie everything down (convincing the wife still remains the problem however, though not in a tying down sense)...

Regards, Matt B

Too much information there Matt!

Oops, sorry. That would be "Evil Matt" speaking (out of context) - happens occasionally, like building up browny points with the mother-in-law, only to say or do something stupid to lose them all. Will I ever learn!

But you do know I'm kidding, right?

Regards, Matt B

Hi Matt,

Things still seem normal here in Oz where the median family still only spends 5% of their income on liquid fuels, plus a few more percent embedded in food and consumer products. We can probably absorb another doubling in fuel prices without much sweat (say two years) and possibly even another doubling after that...

But things are not so relaxed in the third world, where the household budget numbers already don't add up, and that's just for some kero to cook dinner for your kids...
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2008/06/2008619121558798802.html

(And dang, the nearest firewood's three days' walk away, thousands of metres up the side of a mountain!)

Right now, even if peak is currently underway, humanity is producing and utilizing more energy than ever before in the entire history of the species.

Wolf in YVR BC

Exactly. Hence the word "peak". There's an aviation analogy that I think is appropriate. The angle of attack at which a wing produces maximum lift is called the critical angle of attack. What happens as you continue past this angle? The wing stalls, rapidly producing less and less lift. The airplane loses altitude. Recovery prior to hitting the ground depends on application of the proper recovery techniques, and how far above the ground you were when the stall occurred.

No sane pilot flies with the wing near the stall without taking corrective action or at least being hyper-vigilant.

What do you think, nice analogy? It seems counter-intuitive, at first anyway, to think of being in big trouble when you're at "the max". I know I was surprised to hear this when I first learned it in ground school. (Coincidentally, at YVR).

Hi Just,

Yes, this is a nice analogy.

Hello from crop dusting South of USA.

Just lost a pilot to exactly this Stall earlier this month.

My Bro in Law says Cessna even did a film on it.

My Bro in Law, a crop duster, said the pilot was too young, 24,
too cocky, we'll make a ton of $$$, and owner had said pilot
doing low level spraying, too much,instead of fertilizing.