doctorbob - I will update on the state of UK trade balance tomorrow, or the next day. Our scheduling has been thrown out a bit by all the Saudi excitement. If things like debt, trade balance and economic sustainability bother you then you should get a good nights sleep tonight - it may be your last.

Meanwhile, here's the gas model I was working on months ago. This was quite a bit of work, but its wrong. I realise now that the demand consumption growth shown here will never happen as high price will destroy much demand for nat gas - exactly how that manifests itself is open to debate.


If things like debt, trade balance and economic sustainability bother you then you should get a good nights sleep tonight - it may be your last.

LOL

But sadly contains more truth to it than most would care to admit.

Euan

Imagine you had got hold of Gordon for half an hour, had spent 10 minutes showing graphs and explaining the bind we were in, and he had accepted it all and asked "so what do we do?"

What would your answer be?

In the short term, as far as I can see the major problem is a cold snap across Europe. Not only does the price soar, the amount available to the UK is curtailed and difficult decisions have to be made. It looks to me as if the immediate action is to limit electricity generation, shedding high loads so domestic supplies can be maintained. There is no way domestic supply can be cut, its just not workable. So its an electricity problem, not a gas one.

Of course this does nothing about the run up in costs (we can see where that 40% energy rise quote came from), but Gordon as an accountant doesn't really care about that, he considers it to be the great god of the marketplace and won't interfere.

In the long term there is a need either for a secure supply of gas, or a swift move away for both power generation and home heating. Neither seems to have an obvious answer - nuclear stations take too long to build and what are the alternatives for winter home heating?

Politicians want answers with their problems, what would yours be?

Politicians want answers with their problems, what would yours be?

As an emergency measure, rationing, adjust systems to easily allow this before they are needed, be proactive.

The simplest way is to change the pricing structure - at present my gas, electricty and water all get cheaper the more I use, this is exactly the opposite of what is required. The regulators, such as OFGAS, could be authorised to enforce this.

The first chunk of energy should be priced at a rate all (including pensioners) can easily afford - enough energy to cook, shower, and adequately heat one room?

After that, the price should escalate exponentially so people (like for example those who are living one person to a large badly insulated house) can decide what lifesyle changes they might want to make, if any, or pay substantially more for the resource - we live in a 'free' country so you can't expect the government to dictate what you should do.

I proposed in another thread a 'One Warm Room' program, to insulate as cheaply as possible one room in each house to a very high standard, often simply putting in lining and plasterboard on the inside of the walls, so sacrificing space to heat.
Out of around 24 million homes in this country about 3 million are band F, the very lowest standard of insulation, and a further 9 million are band E.

In addition under our wonderful free market system, poor people who pay be key meter rather than direct debit are differentially charged around £400 extra a year for the privilege, and the most recent price rises were loaded against low users, some paying up to 70% more for their electricity, penalising the poorest and the conservation concious.

Since the Labour party is sure to be booted out, there does not seem much hope of the Tories even attempting equity.

Shame we haven't got a socialist party.

My idea is that every house built, sold, or renovated starting at $1,000,000 (or in this case, pounds) are required to incorporate solar hot water, micro-CHP, or heat pump. Have that $1,000,000 figure decline by 5% per year, and before you know it, everybody will have one. This would also allow time for the production capacity for all these things to be developed.

"..we live in a 'free' country so you can't expect the government to dictate what you should do."

I don't see why not - as a retired Shell director I think it was pointed out when saying SUVs should be banned for being immoral to drive now oil is becoming scarce. Burning coal was banned in towns whether you would be prepared to pay a lot or not.

Mark

The most important thing that Gordon -or any politician- could do is blow the whistle on the problem at hand. We are in a sort of 'Apollo 13 crisis mode' but no one as yet is saying 'Houston we have a problem'.

I would suggest that he immediatley convene a meeting of all heads of state and ask the UN to do a "Global Energy Audit" as input (forcing all key players to divulge their reserves and peak extraction capacity -any country not doing so would have its credit rating downgraded as a 'stick').

There's a big UK Renewable Energy report coming out later this week -The Guardian got hold of it last weekend.

Its scratching the surface but some things:

Massive 30 fold windpower expansion
Insulation
Solar hot water heating.

All this to get to 15% by 2020...

In addition we need to double nuclear, give rebates for PHEVs, increase investment in the railways and city trams + electric buses. Etc, etc.

Nick.

"If things like debt, trade balance and economic sustainability bother you ...". I walked past the wondow of a local estate agent today. About a third of the cards for houses had "sold" on them but God knows when they were sold, probably last year, so I'd guess that was just a con. All but about 3 of the rest had various price reductions marked on them and many had two reductions with the old prices crudely crossed out - which is maybe not so clever. Typical reductions from the original asking price averaged about 10%, with many being 15% and the odd one over 20%. Another year or two of this on its own IMO, would be enough to spark a long and deep recession without the galloping increases in food, fuel and energy bills. One wonders how much time one has to make preparations - Euan jokes about his Norwegian farm but presumably he and others like myself who want out, will have to sell something here to enable the move and maybe in a couple of years no-one will be able to sell any sort of "average" house at all.

Nick wants the UN to convene a global energy audit, but from a more local point of view it might be more reasonable to hope that the EU might do this and get itself an energy policy that makes some sense instead of faffing about with treaties that benefit no-one but the Brussels empire-builders.

The above inflation graph should dispel the notion that inflation was inordinately high during the 1990's stagnant housing market than the present. The graph clearly shows that inflation this time around seems set to be higher on an average basis and thereby sends a warning shot to those that view housing as a long-term investment. THis is the wrong time to be invested in property as the scene is set for a 50% to 60% fall in UK house prices from the Peak to the eventual inflation adjusted trough.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5121.html

The really cheery part is that this is just based on conventional economics, and does not take account of damage from peak oil.

I read today that out of 15 million homes with cavity walls 11 million are unfilled. I find that shocking. Fill 11 million walls and that should shave several % points off gas consumption.

Here is a full assessment of current UK housing stock and standards.
http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/40house/chapter05.pdf
chapter05.pdf

It is not pretty reading, but I suppose at least it shows the vast economies possible.
The figure it gives for cavity walls are 11 million uninsulated out of 17million.

The problem with all these assumptions about take-up of measures is it utterly ignores the cosmetic aspect of housing renovation.
It assumes that 100% of windows will be U 0.8 by 2050 ? Absolutely - if you rip out every leaded light window, every Georgian sash, every Edwardian casement and replace with fibreglass quad glazing. yes, that will look nice on your thatched cottage :)
In fact we would have to not only repeal the conservation laws but totally change the mindset of period housing as a living ideal.
Mind you on my wanders I did find this :
http://www.redbloc.co.uk/cladding.html?menu=120&head=8

Looks like you can keep the brick exterior and add phenolic insulation to the outside of solid walls.

If we are going to get the problems we think in this thread, worsening progressively, by 2016 I can't see anyone including the Government giving a fig for cosmetics - the only issue will be finding the insulation materials.
In a battle between the cold and aesthetics the cold wins every time.
Actually though, I can see a lot of innovative solutions coming through, providing that the economy is not so collapsed that no-one bothers.

The gain from double glazing is not so very great. Certainly not great enough to destroy our historic and cultural heritage. There is much that can be done to improve the energy budget of historic housing stock and ripping out old windows is about bottom of the list. When energy is rationed, whether by prices, TEQs or whatever, many will prefer to pull on the thermal undies before destroying their built environment.

Its too late already.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4200817.ece

From The Times
June 24, 2008
CBI warns of power cuts if Planning Bill is defeated

Siobhan Kennedy and Francis Elliott

Britain will face severe power outages by 2013 and run out of energy altogether two years later if plans to build nuclear and wind energy facilites are delayed, according to business leaders.

The Confederation of British Industries (CBI) has warned MPs that any watering down of a new fast-track planning system will have disastrous consequences for the country by slowing down the construction of new power plants and renewable energy sources

Actually, I think this also has severe implications for any fast ramp up of alternates or replacements, go too fast and there is no net energy or commission/decommission at the same time - it makes the energy gap situation worse not better, right at the time of most stress!

One thing which is bound to be done in the scenario of power cuts is to extend reactor life.
In my view this will be done regardless of safety.
Should an accident occur it would doubtless be blamed on the evils of nuclear power, not on a system which does not provide for timely replacement and provide reasonable energy security.

Here are some links to the possibilities of the extension of reactor life:
http://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2007/uk_extentsions
British Energy begins extending engineered life-spans for troubled reactors
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg13518394.500-can-old-reactors-take...
Can old reactors take the strain?:

"so what do we do?"

Well reading some of the excellent comments on this thread its clear there are concerns about the integrity of the UK grid, so the first thing that we must do without any delay is to build another 12 CCGT power stations (combined cycle gas turbine). These are already on order, so I think we need to bring their construction forward a bit.

Someone also mentioned that the trains were crowded so I think we need to accelerate the road building program to alleviate this problem.

The high cost of fuel is also crippling the airline industry and so I think the government should provide subsidies here. Ideally the government should cut the tax on jet fuel, but since there is no tax on jet fuel straight fuel subsidies will be required. If we don't do that then British tourists will no longer be able to fly to Spain to catch skin cancer - and then the NHS may have too little to do.

The poor and the old will struggle to pay their energy bills so they also need subsidies to help bolster energy demand from that segment of society and I 'd propose to pay for that by taxing the offshore oil and gas industry even more. As you are aware they are making obscene profits, and the fact that most of that profit comes from overseas doesn't matter. Pension funds are obese at present so I say f*ck those who have tried to save for their old age and tax the oil companies till their pips squeak.

Based on its utterly appalling safety record I don't think we should risk new nuclear power stations, especially since the general public , who as a result of all the extra money spent on education in recent years, are pretty expert on engineering aspects of nuclear power plant and on the clinical dangers associated with radiation leakage. So if the public says "we don't want nuclear" I think the government must listen to that well informed opinion.

I think it is also imperative that we place the well fare of some ducks ahead of the well fare of the population in general and need therefore to be very wary of building too many windmills or tidal barrages since this could do untold harm to the habitat of said ducks. And in any case, windmills produce more CO2 than burning coal.

We must also take our national security very seriously indeed, and so when the MOD says you can't build any windmills anywhere since we like flying low - (a tactic proven to be very popular with Iraqis during GW1 who discovered they could shoot down our Tornadoes with bows and arrows) and we must be very wary of the Russian threat. Ever since the Crimean War the Russians have threatened our national security with only two short periods during the 20th century where they changed sides and were our allies (WWI and WWII). So we must stay vigilant. After all, the Russians are likely short of nat gas, and may invade Britain at any moment to seize our oil and gas fields.

Finally, I think the government should be doing much more right now to blame other people for the energy crisis. It has been totally impossible to predict that north Sea oil and Gas production would fall the way it has. This is largely the blame of the oil companies, who as you know are also among the biggest speculators in the oil and gas market. I foresee a grave threat that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling may become extremely unpopular, so much so that they are not made Knights of the realm for all their good service to the UK. So maybe they need to bring back someone like Alistair Campbell to ensure that those who are really to blame for this catastrophe, get blamed. Its obvious that greedy poor Americans taking on mortgages they can't afford is the root cause of the Brent Field now being empty.

I blame the Ethanaaawl.

LOL

Well spoken.

But you forgot something Euan.

The Gov should also throw even more money at the Olympics because by 2012 we will badly need cheering up.

Euan,

LOL

Remember growth is good, hence consume more! ;-)

Cheers!

WTF?

Sarcanol, my friend.

urbangardener,

I forgot to issue a sarcanol alert.