This is just a conjecture. But could it be the Saudis are out of touch with reality? For twenty-five years they were the swing producer and kept the world economies mostly stable and growing. Now things have changed and the top bureaucrats in Aramco and in the KSA ruling class are perhaps like Halie Salasi--who in his last years still thought he was still ruling Ethiopia after he was deposed. They would like to keep the price lower but they can't just like Texas Railway Commission lost control of setting the oil price in 1973. Did the Texas oil tycoons in 1971 see they were going into decline?

Most of the oil patch types that I have talked to were surprised that production started falling in 1973, after the Texas RRC went to a 100% allowable in 1972.