Baghdad Bob has taken up residence in Saudi Arabia. Or is he dressed in drag and working for CNBC?

The markets, apparently, see this as so much noise. But wasn't most of the world, excluding the U.S., taking action on global warming? And how does increased supply and consumption fit into that overall scheme? Only if the intent is to avoid substituting coal for oil.

How predictable that the world's "leaders" would panic at the reality of higher prices and lower supply. As usual, they are subsituting the magic of wishful thinking for a real energy policy.

It is past time to set a floor on oil; the longer reality is avoided, the worse things are going to be.

Obama is coming to the rescue, however, with his support of ethanol. We'll worry about food later, maybe sometime next week.

The big story this year (with some important exceptions, still largely ignored in the MSM) is the ongoing export decline from Russia, Norway, Mexico and Venezuela--key nearby sources of imported oil for Europe and the US respectively.

I estimate that Mexico's net oil exports fell from about 1.4 mbpd in 9/07 to about 1.1 mbpd in 5/08. At this rate, they would be at zero in about three years (from 9/07), the Fall of 2010. At half this rate, they might make it to the Fall of 2013.

BTW, Mexico might be an interesting model for another top 10 net oil exporter that is highly dependent on one field, Saudi Arabia. It appears that the big decline in Mexican production kicked in four years after their final peak, which would mean 2009 for Saudi Arabia.

The real kicker is that after they reach zero exports, they quickly become a net importer, which then increases the competition for the globally shrinking supply of available exports.

ej

Like the UK & Indonesia

I used the ELM's 28% per year and Matt Simmon's 8% per year to current world exports. Does this seem reasonable?

Also estimated is the oil deficit from export decline since 2005 compared to the deficit from the 1973 Oil Embargo. Losses from the Embargo likely over stated, are based on 4 mbpd for the entire period of the Embargo. Even if 73 Embargo is over stated, deficit for the last 3 years are 3 times greater than those of the Embargo.

Our middle case is that the top five net oil exporters (about half of world net oil exports) collectively approach zero net oil exports around 2031. My guess is that total world net oil exports in 2031 will be down by at least 75% from their 2005 peak.