 | Saudi Arabia Announces They Will Produce More Oil | The Oil Drum | Saudis announce oil production increases...again...and again...and again... |  |
343 comments on DrumBeat: June 23, 2008
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
343 comments on DrumBeat: June 23, 2008
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Oilwatch Monthly November 2009
- Some predictions on the forthcoming Russian-Ukrainian gas 'crisis'
- The US stimulus and "green jobs" for wind energy
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
- The Bullroarer - Friday 20th November 2009
- The Bullroarer - Friday 13th November 2009
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- The Energy Blog
- Entropy Production
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“Considering the many productive uses of petroleum, burning it for fuel is like burning a Picasso for heat.”
—Big Oil Executive
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
The big story this year (with some important exceptions, still largely ignored in the MSM) is the ongoing export decline from Russia, Norway, Mexico and Venezuela--key nearby sources of imported oil for Europe and the US respectively.
I estimate that Mexico's net oil exports fell from about 1.4 mbpd in 9/07 to about 1.1 mbpd in 5/08. At this rate, they would be at zero in about three years (from 9/07), the Fall of 2010. At half this rate, they might make it to the Fall of 2013.
BTW, Mexico might be an interesting model for another top 10 net oil exporter that is highly dependent on one field, Saudi Arabia. It appears that the big decline in Mexican production kicked in four years after their final peak, which would mean 2009 for Saudi Arabia.
The real kicker is that after they reach zero exports, they quickly become a net importer, which then increases the competition for the globally shrinking supply of available exports.
ej
Like the UK & Indonesia
I used the ELM's 28% per year and Matt Simmon's 8% per year to current world exports. Does this seem reasonable?
Also estimated is the oil deficit from export decline since 2005 compared to the deficit from the 1973 Oil Embargo. Losses from the Embargo likely over stated, are based on 4 mbpd for the entire period of the Embargo. Even if 73 Embargo is over stated, deficit for the last 3 years are 3 times greater than those of the Embargo.
Our middle case is that the top five net oil exporters (about half of world net oil exports) collectively approach zero net oil exports around 2031. My guess is that total world net oil exports in 2031 will be down by at least 75% from their 2005 peak.