In the USA people are already shifting to driving instead of flying. Yesterday my cousin and his wife from North Carolina stopped by St. Louis, Missouri while driving to Wyoming. They decided on short notice to visit some reletives there and considered air fare (about $2000) versus two and a half days each way in the car. In comparing the gas cost to flying over half the $$$ is saved by taking their 28mpg car (3800 miles total / 28mpg) x $4 per gallon = $543. My cousin has a good paying job and lots of vacation time, so the time factor was not so important. Many middle and lower income people simply will not make the trip instead of taking the time off work to drive or pay the much higher air fare.

The bottom line is that flying in ten years will be done largely by the wealthy people and business travelers, just like 45 years ago. Others will take a train or bus or, if gas is not rationed, take the car. Many trips will be foregone. I forecast air travel to fall by 30% or more in the next ten years.