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99 comments on McCain’s Energy Plan: Correct Diagnosis, Killer Prescription
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Do we still have the luxury of a choice? The problem is not lack of oil reserves, at least not yet. It is that in the race to offset the decline of the flow rate existing oil wells, we can't install enough new oil wells fast enough to bump up the flow rate where we want it to be. How could the solution be the move to a totally different energy source? This replaces the oil flow rate with an electricity flow rate. This requires replacing not only oil wells with nuclear power plants, but also all the distribution and storage infrastructure plus the energy consuming devices. This just increases the difficulty of the task by an order of magnitude.
Given infinite amount of time, the replacement of oil with nuclear could perhaps be done. The problem is we are dealing with a race. If the transition is not done on time, then we have to deal with forced demand destruction.
PolR, I didn't make any such proposal. I just suggested that nuclear energy shouldn't be ruled out. If one includes externalities (climate change factor) I would even say that nuclear energy should be 'ruled in'.
The problem to solve is replacing the incremental decline in imports of oil less any efficiency savings
I prefer to say the problem is to find energy savings to match the decline in imports less new energy that can be brought into line in the given time frame. Same equation, different focus.
You must not leave the time out of equation and it is hard to see how non-oil energy can replace oil this fast given the magnitude of the infrastructure. Simple things like using a bicycle to job commute instead of a car can do a lot. Also buying products that are made near where they are consumed instead of made on a remote continent can also help. The good news is these things will occur naturally as oil price rises.