 | A Tale of Profit and Loss - The Future of Air Travel – Part 2 | The Oil Drum | The Derivation of "Logistic-shaped" Discovery |  |
359 comments on DrumBeat: June 26, 2008
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359 comments on DrumBeat: June 26, 2008
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The problem with this Deutsche Bank release, like so many similar, is the two zeroes.
Because it means that they have no idea what price the market will sustain before collapse. If they had a model to feed $200 into, and analyse the results, they could ask the model about $190 and $180 as well.
Whether the motivation is name recognition for Adam Sieminski, 'advertising' for the bank, or some sort of market influence, I have no idea.
What it's NOT about, is the bank having any idea how the market will react - the two zeroes prove that much, at least.
Thanks for pointing out what is not obvious to many-these are advertisements for Deutsche Bank.
Jaymax, everything is just an estimate. All Deutsch Bank can possibly hope to do is just get it in the ballpark. If Deutsch Bank said something like "$205 oil will cause a worldwide recession" we wood whoop to the high heavens and ask "how can they be that precise?" We all realize that the $200 figure is just a wild ass guess. We all know they really mean "somewhere around $200 oil will cause a worldwide recession".
Come on, quit nitpicking and give them a break. I appreciate the estimate even if they cannot be precise.
Ron Patterson
Hmmm, I disagree - I think they pretended to provide information, which doesn't entitle them to a break - but anyhow - this is much less interesting than the remainder of your post which it triggered, so I shall shut up anyhow :-)
Whilst oil is at the highest price it is still not as high as the previous oil shock when compared to GDP of the world. To reach that it would have to go to about $195 and of course then we had a pretty serious recession. Of course supplies of oil increased soon afterwards which they probably won't this time round.