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102 comments on Countdown to $200 oil: International Energy Agency says current prices justified...

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hedgehog on July 2, 2008 - 5:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi

I am confused... if as the IEA say 2008-2013 demand growth is 7M bpd total (abt 1.4m bpd annually) and according to the IEA new presentation posted (I don't have access to the actual report) non-opec is 1.2 and OPEC crude + NGL is 2.5+2.1M bpd over the 2008-2013 period, that is extra demand of 7M bpd vs new supply of 5.8m bpd or about 200,000 bpd a year shortfall in supply. Is that correct or am I being an idiot and missing something? Were does the (say) 3.5m bpd depletion come in? Doesn't that then mean a total output growth of 4.9m bpd (1.4 + 3.5) that is needed to meet demand each year and make up for depletion but the total output growth as stated above of 5.8m bpd divided by 5 for the period in question = 1.16m bpd so isn't this a HUGE shortfall. Are my calculations right or am I misunderstanding something???

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SamuM on July 3, 2008 - 5:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

My reading:


Incremental supply additions from 2008 to 2013:

Non-OPEC crude capacity +1.2 Mb/d
OPEC crude capacity +2.5 Mb/d
OPEC gas liquids output +2.1 Mb/d - output
World biofuels output +0.6 Mb/d (capacity 2.0 Mb/d)
----------------------------------------------------
Total: +6.4 Mb/d (w/ biofuel cap. 7.8 Mb/d)

Against demand growth +7.x Mb/d (+1.4% p.a.)

NB! This is 2.6 Mb/d lower than the estimate a year ago (MTOMR 2007 in 6/2007).

Incremental = on top of the existing production level (that is, already taking into mature field declines)

Summary: if biofuels (read: ethanol) don't come through in spades and/or Iraq doesn't miraculously recover - we are screwed.

Either way, it's going to be really tough, prices are going to be high, unless we hit Asian/worldwide depression, in which case people have other things to worry about.

And that's just the optimistic IEA scenario :)

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102 comments on Countdown to $200 oil: International Energy Agency says current prices justified...

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