Euan,

I am not convinced that we will get the Norwegian gas supplies we need. About 3-4 months ago someone either from the Norwegian govt, or one of the oil/gas companies, announced that they could no longer guarantee gas exports to the UK since continental Europe was their top priority. A source told me that what it boils down to is the Norwegians have contracted all their available gas to continental Europe, and if the Europeans take all the gas available under contract there will be little or none left for the UK. Unfortunately I cannot find the original article in the media, I think it must have been from one of the several newsletters I get. And nothing comes up on Google now. But you have to wonder why this was not on the front page of every British newspaper?

On the other hand, ExxonMobil/Qatar have said that they are ready to send 15 million tonnes per annum of LNG to the UK, starting I believe some time this year. This is just over 20 bcm/year natural gas, so could make up for any Norwegian shortfall. I don't know of anyone who has actually seen or is aware of the contractual details, but my guess is that the UK will be offered delivery first, as long as they are willing to pay more than anyone else. Given that Japan in particular has been paying over $20 per million btu for LNG over the last winter, it means that UK gas prices will have to rise quite a bit more than 40% to guarantee delivery. Doubling would be more like it, especially if the USA gets desperate for supplies this autumn/winter, which is looking increasingly likely. My best guess is that we will get some of the 15 M tonnes, but not all of it.

Our new (rented) flat incidentally has a useable fire place in the lounge, a feature I think is about to become very important in the UK. We will be well stocked up with smokeless coal this winter, and candles. I think the gas central heating system will not work when there is no electricity.

OPTIMIST!!

In addition to Peak Oil, the world is also faced with changes in climate due to the increase in CO2 and other GHG which result. Last summer's exceptional melt of sea-ice over the Arctic Ocean also resulted in an outpouring of sea-ice and fresher waters from the Arctic into the Greenland Sea and this flow continued into the Labrador Sea. One result of this process might be a reduction in the Thermohaline Circulation (aka: THC), which could bring colder weather to Europe in winter.

As I have watched the sea-ice cycle in satellite data over the years, I noticed that this year, the Odden Ice Tongue did not form in the stream of sea-ice to the east of Greenland. This feature has been associated with THC sinking in the Greenland Sea, thus it's reasonable to conclude that the THC may not have happened in that location this year. The impact of this flow on the Labrador Sea could also be significant. Recall the European experience after "the Great Salinity Anomaly" of the 1970's. One can't be sure without making proper measurements of conditions in the ocean, but I wouldn't be surprised if Europe experiences colder weather next few winters...

E. Swanson

Euan I don't know how much of the refining capacity of England is complex with its higher NG usage or much about it at all. But even within normal limits if England suffers a shortage of NG I'm pretty sure it will be crippling for its refineries. Probably forcing them to shut down. This would be for both direct use of NG and for indirect uses such as electricity. Refineries are pretty sensitive to problems in the network if you will.

Not only would this cause problems with petrol delievers in the UK but worse since I'm and American shortage of gasoline exports to the US in fact the UK would become a net importer until it solved its NG problem.

Given this would be happening at the same time US NG demand is high and US refineries would be having there own problems getting NG and probably likely to try and get unseasonaly high imports would face a bit of a double whammy.

Yet again it seems the secondary effects of peak oil will means we probably won't make it far down these nice pretty post peak curves.

Thanks, I had an uneasy feeling about the levels as well, which is why I asked. I can't find more recent NPD data on natgas forecasts.

Thanks!

So the greeny blue colour is discovered developed declining at what is likely a too optimistic rate that already has enhanced oil recovery (EOR) embedded in it. But then the orange is more oil to be produced via EOR reducing the already too low decline rate even more. The green is discovered undeveloped - maybe possible maybe not, I thought virtually all the big oil and gas fields were now "on". And the red is yet to find.

So in summary this is fantasy land. Norway needs to understand the harm that may be done to W European clients for nat gas by promising more than may be delivered.

Time you did a hatchet job Rune on your fellow countrymen.

€