75 comments on And some (natural gas) answers are expensive
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75 comments on And some (natural gas) answers are expensive
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yes it can. hybrid cars and electric cars are moving forward very fast. GM is trying to the volt out ASAP. many mining machines can go electric. international shipping is slowing down and adding sail power!
Detroit 3 race to build fun, fuel-frugal cars
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080706/BUSINESS01/8070...
John15, you crack me up.
Do you mean the same Volt that is now projected to cost $45,000? (As far as I know, Tesla has always projected its electric sedan to cost $60k so the price may go higher still.)
And the same General Motors that will be looking for a bailout soon because in inflation-adjusted dollars its stock is worth the equivalent of $1.50 per share back in 1950? (That's an indication that investors generally don't think its prospects are good, by the way.)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121495482307421193.html
It must be fun to live in your world.
-Andre'
"Do you mean the same Volt that is now projected to cost $45,000? (As far as I know, Tesla has always projected its electric sedan to cost $60k so the price may go higher still.)"
The prices WILL go very high. But even they won't be able to overcome absolute shortages of multiple commodities, as Peak Everything arrives progressively. Ramping prices aren't doing anything to alleviate the energy crisis, are they?
Geology trumps economics, eventually.
I live in a apartment so where am I supposed to plug my volt in ?
My favorite is that the new EV's are aimed at city/apt dwellers the one group that has
no place to plug one in and has alternative public transport. Pets.com all over again.
My job is far enough away that I don't have enough charge to do a round trip where do I plug in my volt ?
We just lost our house because of a subprime loan and we bought this shiny new volt but we don't have a place to plug it in and are short of cash but they are hard to sell around here few people can afford them. The value has dropped so we are just going to let it get repossed.
GMAC announces a mandatory 50% down payment on all volts. GMAC because of severe credit problems and delinquent accounts caused by people stopping payment on gasoline cars now worthless in the switch to the volt have announced a 50% downpayment minimum on all volt loans. GMAC was forced into this move to stop hemmoraging losses on most of its existing loans for gasoline powered cars.
The massive drop in demand for existing gasoline cars has also put most potential volt buyers off.
I'd like to buy a new volt but my current car is worth far less than I owe so I'm going to have to drive it for a while. Luckily enough people bought volts that gasoline prices are down so it does not matter now.
I can come up with thousands of scenarios.
Bottom line if by some miracle you manage to get the fleet to turn over rapidly to electric you also just made the value of the 17 million cars sold over the last five years close to zero.
EV's not only suffer from the same deflationary effects as rail on existing infrastructure but they also with a little common sense don't work for a lot of car owners.
I will give you that if we has started serious investment in EV's 10-15 years ago before we hit peak oil and put the infrastructure and most importantly developed electric rail for all the people that for numerous reasons did not have the infrastructure to own a EV. Then they fit in.
I actually think they will eventually have a useful niche market for the fairly wealthy i.e top 20% of wage earners.
And smaller runabouts for city use may be popular.
But they only work as secondary transportation options for a few with rail being the primary.
If I can manage to get my dream post peak living conditions and EV's exist I might buy one but I'll also get a 250cc motorcycle but this is only if things work out well for me and if they did I'd not consider myself the average customer but a fortunate person. So I'm convinced they will be around and that as the market develops they will have a important niche. Assuming that rail head parking lots can be electrified which is sensible the biggest use case is getting to the train from your house.
Given the fanatics that have switched from drinking the Corn/Ethanol cool aid to EV's its almost worthless to discuss real markets that might exist for EV's.
And I won't reply anymore to EV's someone who cares can do a keypost on them.
This is a NG thread :)
And NG is not looking good globally.
Good luck burning that NG coking heavy sour crudes.
If gas prices go down, the value of all the cars sold over the last five years will not go to zero.
How high does the price of gasoline have to go before you write off your new car and switch to an econobox diesel with 50MPG? 20$ per gallon? That's what it will take.
Maybe the SUVs wind up in the cities making two mile commutes and the efficient cars wind up in the country making fifty mile commutes. It's the market at work.
Then your stuck back into a partial substitution and Tainters collapse.
You have dropped demand just like we did with the NG/Oil substitutions of the 1980's resulting in a short term collapse of prices. In the case of oil only 15 years. In the case of the volt if it goes this way at best given the market that can actually use it a few years of slowly rising prices.
Diesel commuter cars are even worse then EV's diesel is what runs are economy wasting it on some jerk driving to the office is even stupider than a EV.
The good news is that because diesel is so critical and demand for diesel to keep the economy going is so inelastic diesel is responding faster than gasoline making econobox diesel not a wise decision.
Every now and then the market does the right thing.
If we succeeded in partial substitutions then we deal with peak oil and having to move to electric rail with even less resources.
The good news is we are so friggin greedy that from my total analysis we won't be able to pull off another partial solution we will be forced to either walk or move to electric rail.
I'm willing to live with another fiasco like corn ethanol if thats what I have to do. It might buy me a few years to save more money and prepare for a post peak lifestyle. So from a purely selfish point of view I hope that EV's have enough success to delay things another year or two.
And more power for diesel econobox's or better gasoline powered ones so I don't have to pay higher food costs for your stupidity. I could use the time and at the end of the day since we are probably going to end up putting the rail in with manual labor it probably does not make a huge difference in the end anyway.
Finally the problem is the market cannot look far enough ahead to see the dangers raised by partial substitution of finite resources to level prices. Its not a calculation the market can perform.
In fact I used the market itself to discover this problem. If you know what your doing the market will tell you that its gotten caught in a partial substitution downward spiral.
Its already signaled that its caught in a spiral your simply ignoring what the market is really telling you.
Its market analysis which scared the living crap out of me not some tree hugging ideal.
Hmm, you are a bright guy, memmel. There are a lot of bright guys around though, and most are still wrong most of the time about most things.
A lot of them would also disagree with you.
Your analysis seems pretty rigid, and makes a lot of assumptions that no unexpected events or breakthroughs will happen.
Take high altitude wind, for instance, if that worked then the power problem would be solved.
Now I am not saying it will work, but there is no way I can determine ahead of time whether it will - and neither can you.
You have moved in recent postings from arguing your case to abusing those who differ from you, and haven't helped your argument by so doing.
You may know a lot, but there is no perfect analysis out there, and you are human not infallible.
If people are to prepare and take action, then they're going to have to make working assumptions.
Under current circumstances it is probably better to make preparations based on things that will exist in an imperfect future, rather than what may exist in a perfect future.
I think, for the purpose of preparation, it is better to get rid of the problem rather than try to solve it. Remove the need for personal transportation rather than attempt to substitute it with some inferior product. The transition phase can be covered with existing technology, possibly tweaked to give more fuel efficiency.
Darned if I can understand why it is alleged to be a perfect future rather than one in which most ride not very powerful Chinese style electric bikes, with a lucky few having a modest development from the present Prius car.
I think that these 'If I ruled the world' solutions are non-starters, and usually take no account of the different conditions in different places.
Put simply, as long as personal transport is practicable, people will use it, regardless of some theoretical consideration that they shouldn't want it.
Public transport is greatly stressed during rush hour, and not very efficient when operating at low load factors.
For some reason many who want to dismiss electric powered transport are keen on people bicycling.
At a tiny cost in electricity most for whom bikes are impractical can have electric bikes and trikes at reasonable cost, and attain most of the same benefits, for instance not having to employ a bus driver on a half empty bus.
France for instance has plenty of cheap electricity, so why would they want to walk everywhere when it is totally unnecessary?
The light vehicle production in the States is around 17million per year, not over 5 years.
Countries such as Israel and Denmark which are serious about them are also building fact charging networks, so avoiding charging problems for apartment dwellers.
There is no reason at all why modest electric bikes and trikes should not be usable by city dwellers in most places.
The Volt, just like GM, will not work, but the replacement for the Prius should be fine, and if you accept the limitations pure EV's can be done.
I would agree that EV's will not form a straight replacement for the current fleet, but will take some time and have a relatively low level of sales - but peersonal mobility should remain at a fairly high level if you don't mind getting wet.
The devaluation of the current fleet occurs because of the price of petrol, not the introduction of EV's, which will simply give some level of mobility to those lucky enough to own one.