212 comments on DrumBeat: July 8, 2008
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212 comments on DrumBeat: July 8, 2008
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Anyone know how the common man (or woman) goes about investing in long term oil futures?
With prices currently being pushed down by speculators, but with the fundamentals the same, it would seem a good time to investigate.
Buy a gas station for the tanks.
Fill 'em up out of a tanker farm.
You can't buy futures cheaper than actuals now.
$140 out a 2013 seems like a steal, and no mucking about with the real world black stuff.
Mind you, buying a defunct station also sounds like an interest proposition, although I'll guess the tanks only have a finite life? A petrol station, a forest, some farmland - I wonder if there is anywhere where these are all close together?
The trouble with buying futures is the counterparty risk. If things are as bad as I think they might be by 2013, I'm not sure who'll be around to honour such a contract.
See my longer post below. If you are long and the price rises you can withdraw your profits. The market works this way precisely to reduce counter party risk. I agree that a contract requiring delivery of $140 oil in 2015 might not be honored if it is $500 then but if you are attentive you should have withdrawn most of the gain before the expiration date.
Thank you for your reply.
In today’s uncertain financial environment, it is essential to avoid counterparty risk wherever possible.
As opposed to performance risk-"mucking about with the real world black stuff."
A petrol station, a forest, some farmland - I wonder if there is anywhere where these are all close together?
Yes, there is. But I'm there already. 8D
BTW your statement reminds me of a Yazoo City, MS-Capital of Kudzu- joke.
Considering old gas stations on US HWY 49, the best way to mulch kudzu is with used oil and cinder blocks. 8D
You are taking the same counterparty risk buying the real stuff and storing it until 2013. People will take your money now, and sell you oil, but will the guy who comes to get the oil in 2013 bring you any money?
The risk may be higher or lower with actuals vs. futures, I don't know, but it's the same type of risk, and shouldn't be written off.
No. Because you've got the actuals in hand.
It's now "performance" risk. And who's talking about a guy coming in 2013?
And while you're waiting, you use it yourself( more on request).
The only way you get hurt is you can't afford to store it.
And if you can't afford to store it, you shouldn't be in the market anyway.
8D "mulch kudzu is with used oil "
lots better uses: some mixed w/ diesel, siphyon thru a fiber rope to clean & reuse,... then again can't eat those things; course u can mulch kud w/ lots of things.
KUDZU,
Coming to a "Filling Station" near you, soon:
http://domesticfuel.com/
http://www.firstfuelbank.com/history/default.asp
The First Fuel Bank in Minnesota, founded in 1982, lets their 8,000+ members lock in to fuel at present-day prices. I wonder what portion of their account holders are peak-oil aware?
mcgowanmc -
If you buy an old gas station for the tanks, just be careful: you could also be buying yourself a very expensive chunk of environmental liability if the tanks at some time in the station's history leaked and contaminated the surrounding soil and/or ground water. If I recall correctly, as of circa 1990, on average something like 50% of all underground storage tanks 20 years and older have had some sort of leakage problem.
During the later 1980s and early 1990s there was a major effort to remove old underground storage tanks, replace them with better protected tanks, and to remediate any site contamination. So, many stations could be in better shape than most used to be. It's been a while since I was in the environmental consulting business, but I think that in all or most states at this point in time periodic testing of underground gasoline tanks are required. Such records should be available for a reputably run station, as should records of any contamination studies and clean-up efforts.
Just be sure to know what you're really buying.
Most brokers can put investments into the commodity futures market. Here is a link to an online commodities specialist.
http://www.ibdirect.com/ (there are many companies of this type)
They provide a piece of software that allows you to order your own trades whenever you want. To enter the oil futures market you need to establish an account and deposit sufficient cash to meet the margin requirements. At the moment a contract for 1000 barrels of oil for future delivery requires an initial margin of $12,488. Further if the market moves against you then you will have to deposit more money so that you are always a minimum of $9,250 above what would be required to cash out of the contract. If the market moves against you and you fall below this cushion the broker will sell your contract to cover themselves.
On the other hand if the market moves in your favor you can take out part of your profit before the expiration of the contract. As an example. In jan the contract for delivery of 1000B of oil in dec 2015 was about $100/B if you had bought the contract then (i.e. you were long or a buyer) you would have had to put down about $10,000 (the margin requirement was lower then). Right now that contract sells for about $140 so you would have made $40,000. If you were confident that the contract would not go down again you could take out your profit (actually just about $38000) since the margin requirement has increased since then.
All this being said IMO short term (day to day or hour to hour) trading in commodities is a game for pros. They have much more and more current knowledge than you have and you will be unlikely to beat them at that.
On the other hand the price for the dec 2015 is currently $140 which says to me that the pros have not bought into peak oil, they are pricing the far future contract off the current price. If you believe oil will go up this seems a good investment IMO.
This is called speculating but I see it as the same thing Southwest Airlines is doing. I will need oil based products in 2015 and fear they will be much more expensive. By buying a contract for delivery at essentially today's price I am assured that if there is a major runup in price my profit will cover the added cost of those products.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=oilb.l
http://www.etfsecurities.com/
Is a Brent oil derivative. Listed on LSE. Any stock broker can buy this for you. Can also be traded electronically on the likes of Yahoo.
This is always based on the front month contract and at contract expiry it rolls into the next month.
The oil apparently does exist and is "husbanded" by Shell - theoretically. There is also an oilw contract based on westexas.
DBO is an excellent product for long-term investing in oil futures. They own actual oil futures, but instead of rolling over the front month contract every month (and getting murdered by traders on the specified roll-over day), they have a formula for deciding the most advantageous month's contract to buy when they must roll over a contract. I believe they will buy any contract up to a year out.
When the market is in contango, as it is right now, you don't want to be rolling over contracts every single month, as you would do with USO.
USL is from the people behind USO, and is set up to do the same kind of thing as DBO.
These are also good for people who want to invest in oil, but are worried about things like windfall-profits taxes. It's a pure bet on the price of oil
We're currently in a wonderful dip for buying.
Disclosure: I own these for my own accounts and for the accounts of family members and friends.
$135 at the moment - its really been hit by the speculators today.
I'd need something in the UK, and something with a little intelligence behind it. Simply rolling over contracts doesn't sound smart, particularly since I'll guess they will load fees in there somehow.
Actually, you also earn interest on your money (the part that doesn't go into margin requirements goes into t-bills), and that has covered fees in the past.
If you want active trading of futures, why not do it yourself? Start with a book by Curtis Faith titled Way of the Turtle.
Why are the 1 year returns for USO significantly higher than for DBO?
Investing in oil futures?
Doesn't that exacerbate the problem for everyone else price wise - including the poorer nations?
I mean, investors are the one's who got us in this economic farrago in the first place.
God forbid someone might have to actually work for a living.