<DrumBeat: July 10, 2008 The Oil Drum Asking one of the less comfortable questions about our energy future...>
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136 comments on Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within the EU Peaked?

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westexas on July 9, 2008 - 11:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Our middle case, in our (Khebab/Brown) paper on the top five net oil exporters is that Norway and Russia both approach zero net oil exports in the 2025 time frame. I've called it the 4P's--Problems with Proximal Petroleum Producers. The US is facing the same problem with Mexico and Venezuela. Mexico will approach zero net oil exports in 2-4 years. We haven't modeled Venezuela, but extrapolating the current trend suggests that Venezuela could approach zero net oil exports in about 20 years.

My take on the current situation is that the EU and the US are trying to offset the declines from their proximal producers with increased imports from the Persian Gulf and Africa, while Asia is trying to increase oil imports to meet increased demand--thus the rapid increase in oil prices in recent months, at about one percent every five days since May, 2007.

Our model, recent case histories (e.g., the UK and Indonesia) and current data suggest that net export decline rates tend to accelerate with time.

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mcgowanmc on July 10, 2008 - 9:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

“Gazprom has expressed its willingness to buy Libyan oil and any available quantities of gas,” the official, Shokri Ghanem, told Reuters, adding that it did not mean Gazprom would buy all of Libya’s oil.

Gazprom’s chief, Alexei B. Miller, met with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya, after which the company said in a statement that it hoped to buy, at market prices, “all future volumes” of gas, oil and liquefied natural gas available for export.

A cooperation agreement signed in 2006 between Gazprom, which supplies about a quarter of Europe’s gas, and Algeria led to fears that Europe’s biggest two suppliers could work together like the OPEC group of oil exporters.

Gazprom’s latest bid to strengthen its grip on gas supplies around Europe comes as no surprise, said David Cox, the president of Poyry Energy Consulting.

Gazprom said it was also planning a joint refining venture with the National Oil Corporation of Libya, and accepted Libya’s offer to build pipelines to Europe from Libya, in North Africa.

Gazprom and the Italian energy company Eni formed a partnership in 2006 that allowed the companies to swap energy assets, including those of Eni in Libya.

Gazprom Offers to Buy All of Libya’s Gas
Source: NYTimes
URL Source:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/business/worldbusiness/10gazprom.html? _r=1&oref=slogin

h/T Russki at Libertypost.org

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nrgyman2000 on July 10, 2008 - 9:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And this happened while the EU was discussing biofuels.

You have to give the Russians that they are clever strategists and also is focused on long term goals (and Gazprom ceartinly knows the value of energy) while some of their counterparts (competitors) is locked into the belief that the market will solve everything including future energy supplies.

This is an illustration that the rules in a post PO world are about to change, and has anyone seen any signs that western politicians are aware of the new rules now being formed?

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alistairC on July 10, 2008 - 10:12am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No, this news is proof that the Euro-politicians' starry eyed faith in "the market" to deal with energy problems is totally correct. It will.

However "The market" is now called Gazprom. And it's a monopoly.

Be careful what you wish for.
(And build more nuclear power plants.)

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136 comments on Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within the EU Peaked?

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