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136 comments on Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within the EU Peaked?
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136 comments on Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within the EU Peaked?
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It would be interesting to see a similar graph for Asia, I have a feeling they are even less self-sufficient than the EU.
Robert
Give me some time and i will revert later today with a similar graph for Asia.
OK?
Hello,
Below is a graph comparing degree of self-sufficiency for EU, USA and Asia and Pacific as of 2007 based upon data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008.
What may come as a surprise is the high degree of self-sufficiency of natural gas of 87 % within AP (AP; Asia Pacific). The reason for this is that AP only had 15 % of global natural gas consumption in 2007. NG consumption grows strongly in AP and AP will become a strong competitor with EU and USA for NG, inclusive LNG.
BusinessWeek recently had a headline of:
Kazakhstan: Work begins on gas pipeline to China
which clearly demonstrates China willingness to increase nat gas consumption, even from areas thought to be the source of future EU supplies.
With respect to coal China produced approximately 70 % of AP coal consumption in 2007, and China was also the world’s biggest coal consumer in 2007, consuming approximately twice of the second largest consumer, USA.
Rune
Hi Rune,
Thank you for the interesting graphs. Because of NAFTA, wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare North America (Canada, Mexico, US) to the EU and Asia? And to include uranium? I think that the contrast with Asia and the EU will become stronger with these changes.
Dave
If we compared NAFTA (or North America, Canada, Mexico and USA) to EU you are right about the degree of self-sufficiency for North America would improve.
There are several comparisons that is interesting like;
G-7 versus the BRIC countries (this is an interesting one because presently BRIC is a net exporter of all FF)
Eurasia (Europa and Russia with some of the FSUs) versus North America
What I expect is that new alliances is and/or will form in the near future and I will not be surprised if many of these were forged around energy supplies.
The total bars look wrong: AP is less self-sufficient for both oil and coal, and yet the total suggests that AP is more self-sufficient overall.
Nick,
Thank you for your observation.
I have been running through the calculatios from scratch again, and they come out with the same results as presented in the above graph.
The reason has to do with the composition of the energy mixture for the regions and the total is weighted numbers.
USA is slightly heavier on nat gas than coal while AP countries are very heavy on coal and very light on nat gas. AP as a region has presently a high degree of self sufficiency on coal combined with a high total usage of coal (53 % of total FF usage as of 2007).
USA coal represented 27 % of total FF usage in USA in 2007, while it was a small net exporter of coal.
It should come as some food for thought that AP presently have such a high degree of self sufficiency on FF.
Did this help to explain the seemingly distortion in the graph?
Yes, that seems to make sense.
Thanks.