51 comments on Algeria & Morocco: Natural Gas Cartels, Fertilizer Mercantilism, and Rising Tensions
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Figures 13 & 14 The import sources of gas to France.
Jonathan, France, Spain and Italy all have diversified sources of nat gas imports which I suggest you learn about before posting rubbish like this here again.
And whist North Sea gas production may peak next year its is not yet in serious decline.
You may want to spend some time reading this:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3283/
Euan: I don't think Jonathan's post was "rubbish" at all, and I think it's the kind of comment that should be discussed, rather than just dismissed. You can disagree with his Jonathan's contention that France, Spain, and Italy will be "forced" into a cozy relationship with Algeria, and he did overstate the current state of North Sea gas decline, but I don't think his overarching argument is off the mark--after all, North Sea gas will decline in the not-too-distant future. Natural Gas is less globally fungible due to infrastructure issues, as you know, than oil and the diversified nature of a nation's gas supply doesn't make a geographically proximate supplier unimportant. I think Jonathan's point is actually well taken, that a disruption to Algerian natural gas supplies would be highly significant to France, Italy, and Spain. Additionally, despite France's diversified supply, disruption to pipelines serving Spain or Italy would impact France because gas is highly fungible among neighbors that share significant pipeline infrastructure--Spain and Italy would bid up lost Algerian gas in an effort to maintain supply, and France (and other parts of Europe) would feel the impact. To my knowledge, existing LNG trains and associated infrastructure (esp. tankers and port infrastructure) are insufficient to make up lost pipeline supply by merely transferring to LNG. Likewise with disruption of LNG infrastructure--it can't be merely diverted to waiting pipelines...
I was in a bad mood.
If there was a serious disruption to Algerian gas exports it would have a massive effect throughout Europe and the world since the European market is highly interconnected. But this is like saying that a serious disruption to Saudi oil exports would have a major impact upon oil markets. So I'm really not sure what the point is.
Has something happened that makes the threat of such disruption more likely, and in particular more likely in Algeria than anywhere else? What about Egypt and Libya. And if terrorists were seriously intent on disrupting nat gas supplies why not blow up unguarded pipelines in Scotland or N Holland?
Of the thousands of miles of pipeline, most of it will be small diameter gas flow lines - if it gets blown up it would take them a day to repair it. The main targets would be the main arteries and gas processing plants and pumping stations - but those I imagine will be well guarded - like the Abqaiq complex in Saudi.
There has been low grade threat of terror activity in Algeria for so long as I can remember. The main base - Hassi Messoud - in the middle of the Sahara desert is heavily guarded by thousands of Algerian troops.
Euan,
Point taken to do a little more homework here at TOD before posting.
Had I read your in-depth article on The European Gas Market I would not have made those off-the-cuff comments based on a single graphic.
This points out the problem with artificially grouping nations together without having a very good reason for doing so. Algeria, Spain, France & Italy do not constitute anything approaching a closed system as the graphic implies and I'll need to review the various groupings I have set up in the databrowser. (Groupings were one of the main requests from the initial batch of users.)
I should probably stick to groupings that are either geologic in nature like the North Sea or political in nature like the EU or OECD.
-- Jon
Jon - as I've said before many of your charts are useful for quick checks on exports. But I think you agree this one's not that helpful and could even be misleading for a reader not experienced enough to know what lies behind the numbers.
Figure 27 Destinations for Algerian pipeline gas exports.
Figure 28 Destinations for Algerian LNG gas exports.
The European gas market is complex with a high degree of interconnectivity of supplies. many countries would be affected by a failure of Algerian gas exports - not only those countries that actually receive Algerian gas directly.
But I'm still left wondering if the threat level in Algeria has some how increased significantly that shoudl make us more concerned now than before.
As explained above I was in a bad mood yesterday - sorry for being a bit gruff.
Euan,
No offense taken. I understand how it can be frustrating to have to explain things over again when you've done such an excellent job of explaining them the first time.
We both agree that this particular chart is misleading and I'll be removing it. Part of the reason I've been posting so many charts is to gauge their usefulness and your comments let me know that this one in particular, and arbitrary groupings in general, are problematic. This is very valuable information for me as I definitely don't want to add to the confusion!
I hope to be adding more styles of charts in the future and I'll be looking to your work and that of others here at TOD for inspiration. A couple of ideas I'm working on include:
I look forward to the continuing conversation and discussion about how best we can bring this information to the non-cognoscenti.
Happy Exploring!
-- Jon