51 comments on Algeria & Morocco: Natural Gas Cartels, Fertilizer Mercantilism, and Rising Tensions
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51 comments on Algeria & Morocco: Natural Gas Cartels, Fertilizer Mercantilism, and Rising Tensions
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Euan: I don't think Jonathan's post was "rubbish" at all, and I think it's the kind of comment that should be discussed, rather than just dismissed. You can disagree with his Jonathan's contention that France, Spain, and Italy will be "forced" into a cozy relationship with Algeria, and he did overstate the current state of North Sea gas decline, but I don't think his overarching argument is off the mark--after all, North Sea gas will decline in the not-too-distant future. Natural Gas is less globally fungible due to infrastructure issues, as you know, than oil and the diversified nature of a nation's gas supply doesn't make a geographically proximate supplier unimportant. I think Jonathan's point is actually well taken, that a disruption to Algerian natural gas supplies would be highly significant to France, Italy, and Spain. Additionally, despite France's diversified supply, disruption to pipelines serving Spain or Italy would impact France because gas is highly fungible among neighbors that share significant pipeline infrastructure--Spain and Italy would bid up lost Algerian gas in an effort to maintain supply, and France (and other parts of Europe) would feel the impact. To my knowledge, existing LNG trains and associated infrastructure (esp. tankers and port infrastructure) are insufficient to make up lost pipeline supply by merely transferring to LNG. Likewise with disruption of LNG infrastructure--it can't be merely diverted to waiting pipelines...
I was in a bad mood.
If there was a serious disruption to Algerian gas exports it would have a massive effect throughout Europe and the world since the European market is highly interconnected. But this is like saying that a serious disruption to Saudi oil exports would have a major impact upon oil markets. So I'm really not sure what the point is.
Has something happened that makes the threat of such disruption more likely, and in particular more likely in Algeria than anywhere else? What about Egypt and Libya. And if terrorists were seriously intent on disrupting nat gas supplies why not blow up unguarded pipelines in Scotland or N Holland?
Of the thousands of miles of pipeline, most of it will be small diameter gas flow lines - if it gets blown up it would take them a day to repair it. The main targets would be the main arteries and gas processing plants and pumping stations - but those I imagine will be well guarded - like the Abqaiq complex in Saudi.
There has been low grade threat of terror activity in Algeria for so long as I can remember. The main base - Hassi Messoud - in the middle of the Sahara desert is heavily guarded by thousands of Algerian troops.