The Oil Drum

Euan: I don't think Jonathan's post was "rubbish" at all, and I think it's the kind of comment that should be discussed, rather than just dismissed. You can disagree with his Jonathan's contention that France, Spain, and Italy will be "forced" into a cozy relationship with Algeria, and he did overstate the current state of North Sea gas decline, but I don't think his overarching argument is off the mark--after all, North Sea gas will decline in the not-too-distant future. Natural Gas is less globally fungible due to infrastructure issues, as you know, than oil and the diversified nature of a nation's gas supply doesn't make a geographically proximate supplier unimportant. I think Jonathan's point is actually well taken, that a disruption to Algerian natural gas supplies would be highly significant to France, Italy, and Spain. Additionally, despite France's diversified supply, disruption to pipelines serving Spain or Italy would impact France because gas is highly fungible among neighbors that share significant pipeline infrastructure--Spain and Italy would bid up lost Algerian gas in an effort to maintain supply, and France (and other parts of Europe) would feel the impact. To my knowledge, existing LNG trains and associated infrastructure (esp. tankers and port infrastructure) are insufficient to make up lost pipeline supply by merely transferring to LNG. Likewise with disruption of LNG infrastructure--it can't be merely diverted to waiting pipelines...