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276 comments on DrumBeat: July 13, 2008

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tstreet on July 13, 2008 - 9:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Like all of us, I am getting older. Each year, I run the Bolder Boulder. As I get older, the trend is that I get a little bit slower each year. If I "invested" a lot more each year in my conditioning, I could seem to reverse this trend in a particular year but the overall trend would still be slower running times. At some point, no amount of investment can reverse the trend. It is exceedingly difficult to overcome entropy. Maybe you can seem to do it for a few years (which I have), but the long term effects of aging are just too great to overcome.

Yes, no doubt SA could have done even more investment and eeked out a few more barrels because of that. But those calling for more investment push the false hope to the addicted that the basic overall trend can somehow be subverted and reversed. This is a criminally irresponsible approach.

Simmons is becoming more and more blunt in his warnings as he joins forces with what is perceived as the radical fringe. But really. Bland warnings have been demonstrated to be ineffective. Perhaps the "shrill" approach won't work either. But it is worth a try when everything else has failed.

I'm mad as hell and I can't take it anymore.

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CrystalRadio on July 13, 2008 - 1:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Tstreet, have you thought about it this way?

Hokay, so Simmons gets his message out and everyone knows what's up. Then everyone shifts as much as possible to 'clean alternate energy'. The demand for oil drops . Will the flow rate drop or will we still be using every bit as much oil and polluting just as much, or maybe even more with that added use of alternate energy, just at a cheaper price?

I suppose given time and a bit of work I could think my way through this but I am in an energy efficient mode today, usually I am just lazy but this being Sunday I might as well dress it up a bit:)

Maybe we got to think outside of energy for a best solution?

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BrianT on July 13, 2008 - 1:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This is why I mentioned that the chart below should be prominently displayed on this site.

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tstreet on July 13, 2008 - 1:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, you have offered up a potential problem even if we start really cranking up alternatives. But you said the oil demand drops. So I am not sure I understand your conclusion that we end up using just as much oil anyway. Anyway, without understanding that there is a problem, there clearly won't be a solution. It's a start. One of Simmons' concerns is that we think we can drill our way out of this. Both Pickens and Simmons clearly state that this is a non starter. Maybe we don't know precisely what will work, but we do know what won't work, at least with an acceptable level of certainty.

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CrystalRadio on July 13, 2008 - 3:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Demand, as I understand it, is what we need to pay and are willing and able to spend on a barrel of oil. We can desire more oil but unless we have the loot to pay for it there is no demand. As price falls it allows ineffective desire to be translated into real demand as it will be more affordable. Flow remains the same, aside from peak restraint conditions, but price is a variable influenced by those alternate energy replacements. (now if you can see a way of using those alternate energies will forestall the use of coal ... :))

Anyway, without understanding that there is a problem, there clearly won't be a solution.

Right! And without clearly understanding how the problem might be structured there will be no solution. (pretty safe statement there ,eh?)

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wolverine on July 13, 2008 - 4:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

tstreet-

As a runner, albeit much more casual than you, I just wanted to take a minute and complement your analogy between increased investment in your race prep and increased investment in aging oil fields. This seems like the type of analogy that could be understood by a wide range of people who have just been introduced to the concept of peak oil.

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276 comments on DrumBeat: July 13, 2008

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