Hi FQ,

Are there any truly effective ways to limit population growth that are also politically and morally palatable?

Cheers,
Paul

Not really. Bashing on morals and responsibility is counter productive, for Darwinian reasons. People who answer to the call to 'responsibility' (ie have less children) will reproduce much less than those who don't. Those who have more children will proliferate, and their children are more likely to have more children too. Thus, the effort will result in more population growth.

The only way to do it is by very restrictive birth control, which is a total social and political non-starter. It won't happen, especially not globally.

Population is going to level off anyway. We just have to manage the affluence of a population that's perhaps 40-60 percent bigger than today's.

And the Pope's in town at the moment, asking us to go forth and multiply. Religion, now there's a topic!

Regards, Matt B
PS. The "baby bonus" in Australia is still around $7000 cash! Think there's a baby-boom on at the moment over here?

If there's anything we know how to do, it's stop population growth.
1. Install social security and public health care.
2. Install cable tv.
That's really all you need to do to smash population growth. It has worked every single time, no exceptions.
Well, except for Mennonites and Orthodox Jews in the US. Don't know why they are so resistant.

Even religion cannot escape the Darwinian logic. Religions that are peace loving, that don't force others into their religion, that don't urge people to be 'productive', end up losing the Darwinian battle.

Are there any truly effective ways to limit population growth that are also politically and morally palatable?

I am going to speak about American population growth only. You won't get the majority of people to immediately embrace a stoppage of immigration because it has been romantized for so long and they have been taught for so long by its proponents that it is "what makes America great". And the proponents have also been very effective in painting anyone who is against immigration as a racist. And business people wield undemocratic influence over politicians since they are allowed to bribe them (euphemistically referred to as a contribution) and these business people absolutely love a never-ending wave of extra workers from which to choose and a never-ending wave of extra-customers to sell to. Even among the sharp number crunchers of this site, you won't see graphs or bar charts or tables comparing energy needs with a stable population (forget declining) versus growing population or captions that say something like "I have factored in an annual growth in US population of 1.5% compounded" or the words "due to population increasing".

But I don't believe it is an impossible task. It has to be done in steps. First politicians and business leaders have to realize there are finite resources that are in productional decline and that the amount of coal we have and can produce is vastly overstated. Then second, some of those politicians that are retiring - like George Bush - can begin to speak the truth about it and start to convince the people that fossil fuels are finite. Right now there is some bizarre thinking that takes place in the mind of both the elite and the common person in America. They somehow believe that there is plenty of oil - we just have to drill for it, both in America and overseas. They don't know how much is remaining, how much we have already used, how much we need now, how much we will need in the future - they only "know" that there is plenty of oil. Prices are rising from "greedy oil companies" or "greedy Arabs" or anything else unrelated to using up a finite resource. But people are amazingly sheep-like in their thinking and also very deferential to authority. Tell them Iraq has WMDs and you are sure of it, even though you cannot tell UN Inspectors a single place in the country where they are, and they will not only not impeach you or try you for war crimes when it is found out that you lied in order to invade and destroy a country, they will reelect you. So they will ultimately come on board to the idea that we don't have enough fossil fuel. Particularly if a Republican President does it. Then you immediately get an entire network, FoxNews, speaking about limited fossil fuels and the majority of a political party coming on board.

Once you have them convinced there is a PERMANENT shortage, then the third step, stopping population growth via immigration becomes much much easier. Years ago in California there were two years of a severe drought. In the second year, amidst bans and restrictions on watering your lawn and washing your car, they stopped issuing building permits in some areas. An amazing amazing thing. The system is hard-wired for builders to pay bureaucrats to issue building permits forever and ever and yet they stopped. In the face of scarcity they suddenly saw a link between population growth and a finite resource. Now this didn't last, because they apparently thought that it was the last drought. So the emphasis would need to be on PERMANENT shortage of fossil fuels. We aren't going to drill our way out. We aren't going to "coal-to-liquid" our way out. There aren't "political factors" or "above the ground factors" causing a temporary shortage. At the very least, even if it turned out population growth was so ingrained in the minds of Americans that it could not be stopped even when people realized that resources were finite and expendable, the population growth advocates (via immigration or lack of abortion and birth control or what have you) would be forced to become the biggest chearleaders for wind/solar/wave/nuclear the world has seen to date.

Hi FQ,

Thanks for fleshing-out your thoughts. Would it be fair to say the measures you propose are not intended to limit population growth as such, but rather to restrict U.S. immigration? And at the end of the day, would that resolve our issues with excess resource use and environmental degradation?

Cheers,
Paul

Would it be fair to say the measures you propose are not intended to limit population growth as such, but rather to restrict U.S. immigration?

Since I prefaced it by saying I was speaking from an American perspective limiting immigration drastically limits population growth where I live - America. Al Gore didn't call for the world to have 100% renewable energy by 2020 - he called for America to do it. We won't hit 100% by 2020, but whatever percent we hit, will be higher if we end immigration today. And ultimately ending US immigration will limit total world population as well since the countries that are overpopulating through births (which is now the US as well thanks to immigrant mothers), most notably Mexico, but also India, Pakistan, the Phillipines, and others, will have to deal with their population problem sooner. Mexico can't shreak loud enough at any proposal to stop illegal immigration. They see it as a big solution to their problems. Stop it and they need to find other solutions. Like maybe birth control.

And at the end of the day, would that resolve our issues with excess resource use and environmental degradation?

An American uses more resources than a Philipino or a Mexican or an Indian. Allowing them to come to the US causes more resource use and environmental degradation than if they had remained home. At the end of any day in which people immigrant from the 3rd world to the US, there is more resources used than there was the day before, more environmental degradation that day than there was the day before. No one thing will resolve our issues with "excess resource use and environmental degradation" so I think it is unfair to say that if something doesn't solve the problem completely than it shouldn't be done. That is what people that don't want a local wind farm always say. They point to how small that wind farm's output will be in relation to what the state needs and then say "this wind farm will not solve our energy problem, therefore it can be canceled with no bad effect".

At the end of many many days, 2 million immigrants a year into the US, plus their offspring ends up being 10s of millions and uses tremendous resources and causes tremendous environmental degradation - if nothing else - for the US.

Limiting immigration as long as WE in the US have such a disproportionally larger share than anyone else, as long as that disproportional share is based on taking away from those same people who then must try to work their way here, no, it will not work. No, if we want to stop the urge to come to US, we need to
take less and help others have more.

Or put all our efforts into guns. Maybe just shooting people at the border. And it won't be long before we start shooting people within our borders with equal abandon. How we make and pay for those guns is going to be an interesting question. Nuclear and biological weapons - on a mass scale - that's probably what US will do. After all, we already have the stockpiles.

Before we do that, however, we're going to need a Pinochet-like purge of the unpatriotic elements within US society. Which is why Homeland Security's terrorist watch list is now over 1 million Americans. Nixon was just playing around.

cfm in Gray, ME

We can stop immigration without stopping "the urge to come to the US" or using guns to kill people. And we likely will, only for very sad reasons. As horrible and "immoral" as the pro-immigration crowd want to paint a stoppage of immigration, it happened once before - during the Great Depression. And it wasn't turned on again (for the most part) until Teddy Kennedy and his team got fired up about it in the 1960's. That's 30 years without significant immigration. The country survived fine, the world survived fine. No one went to hell because of it.

Ultimately I don't see how that won't be the story again if things go as badly as they could once oil production starts to decline. You will not have a Great Depression II, with high 25% unemployment, and a government that looks the other way as employers hire illegals from Mexico.You will not have a Great Depression II and have a government that cows to the incessant begging and whining of greedy businessmen who claim they must have more and more foreign workers or they won't be able to compete ... with the American company down the block. And you will not have a Great Depression II with 25% unemployment and a million new immigrants each year waiting for their citizenship papers.

And also, you will not have a Great Depression II, and have a government that looks the other way as employers send jobs to China and India in massive amounts. Pulling back jobs from China and India while simultaneously freezing the US population would be a great way to lesson world demand for oil, just as sending massive amounts of jobs over there was a great way to hit Peak Oil sooner rather than later.

...

Where do people like you come from? Are you posting from your bunker in the hills, or what?

The mind boggles.

An American uses more resources than a Philipino or a Mexican or an Indian.

Surely, Americans do consume and waste enormous resources. Why do you feel you have the right to spend a life of luxury, while others should be denied of these things? Everyone here wants a better life for themselves and their loved ones. And if its in America, people will go. If not legally, then by illegally crossing the borders.

Do you know how many illegal immigrants enter the US every year?

Surely, Americans do consume and waste enormous resources. Why do you feel you have the right to spend a life of luxury, while others should be denied of these things?

I am not denying anyone anywhere in the world the ability to live a life of luxury. You don't have to come to America to live a life of luxury.

Everyone here wants a better life for themselves and their loved ones. And if its in America, people will go. If not legally, then by illegally crossing the borders.

It is a simple matter to stop illegal immigration. People can't come to where they aren't wanted. Right now the people in power want illegal immigration so it occurs, but if they decide they don't want it then it wouldn't matter how much a Mexican crossing the border or an Indian or Chinese overstaying their visa wants to come they wouldn't be able to get a job, get any services, etc. because Americans would know the penalty was too to severe if they deal with them.

Do you know how many illegal immigrants enter the US every year?

Tons, but you have both George Bush and John McCain who want to give them another amnesty. Rich men love illegal immigration. They lose no jobs due to it, have no salary lowered from it, don't have their neighborhoods taken over by it, have no gangs in their kids schools because of it, etc. - they only see it benefiting them as they hire cheap and desperate gardeners and nannies and maids and what have you while all of society, rich and poor alike has to share the burden of the costs of the illegals. I wouldn't be surprised if Barack Obama was all for it. If the people in power ever decide they don't like illegal immigration they will stop it. If we go into a Great Depression both legal and illegal immigration will stop. Any politician who continues the "great immigration propaganda" at that point will be voted out of office.

I for one would like to see churches sponsoring family planning clinics in Mexico. It is the biggest waste of resources for all these churches to drive a bunch of cars down to Mexico all the time to build houses. One family planning clinic could save 10's of thousands of car trips to Mexico. I am not going on anymore of these missions. I supose they do offer a modicum of help to needy people. But family plannning is the hot ticket.

At least that is the way I see it.

It's like African aid. It should go hand in hand with population control. They are very poor and beset with numerous challenges and frequent crisis, and yet have a very high population growth rate.

I read once that Warren Buffet was a big contributor to Planned Parenthood or something similar. But now he has turned all his money over to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Their foundation lists these Grantees:
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Global Development Grantee Profiles
Our partners in global development are committed to helping hundreds of millions of families in the developing world emerge from extreme hunger and poverty.

Global Health Grantee Profiles
Organizations we support are working on innovative solutions to prevent and treat disease and provide access to health interventions in developing countries.

United States Grantee Profiles
Organizations in the U.S. are expanding access to technology and making a difference in the lives of students, and vulnerable children and families.
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Even clicking on the "Read more" links for the above shows nothing about population control. So you have to wonder - did Warren Buffet help or hurt people by diverting his billions from a situation where he was donating part of it to population control - to a situation where it is all going to things that are worthy and good but that do nothing to solve the underlying problem of overpopulation and increasing population. The hope I suppose is that all the poor areas will become rich enough to where parents have better things to do with their time than raise more than about 2 kids. But do we have the time and the resources to get to that point?

I didn't know we were giving money to poor people in Africa. I thought we were just propping up corrupt governments with money that we borrowed from Swiss banks that got the funds from the corrupt government officials that we bribed.
Just goes to show that you learn something new every day.

Actually, a good part of that money comes straight back to us in the West. Typically 50-75% of foreign aid is "tied" foreign aid, that is the receiving country must use it to buy goods and services from the donating country.

For example, a few years back the US gave $175 million in aid to Afghanistan, and $125 million of that went on building a luxury hotel for foreign VIPs to stay in. Entirely built by foreign contractors, and staffed at most levels by them, I think they might have let some Afghans sweep the street outside or something... But hey, it's foreign aid, honest!