314 comments on Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008--July 31 Update
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314 comments on Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008--July 31 Update
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GAIA Host Collective
What kind of barriers do you foresee? Do you think they will be forced to stop by foreign creditors withdrawing funding? This might be the case, but I can easily imagine hyperinflation first, what do you think?
I think that the amount of debt defaulting will just become overwhelming. There will be bank defaults that cannot be covered by FDIC and FSLIC assets. There will be the big auto makers and the airlines. At some point, the State of California may default on its debt.
Before it comes to this point, there may very well be problems with creditors withdrawing funding, interest rates rising, and the exercise of balancing the budget becoming totally impossible. There may even be the problems with oil availability that I mentioned, and keeping the pipelines running. If folks at the ends of the pipelines were to get left out, this could be a very bad situation.
I suppose hyperinflation is a possibility, but with all of the defaulting debt, it seems like it would be difficult to maintain for very long.
"I suppose hyperinflation is a possibility, but with all of the defaulting debt, it seems like it would be difficult to maintain for very long."
This situation has me totally perplexed. We are going to do bailouts- that we can foresee, but is that money going to evaporate somehow? I just can't get my head wrapped around this one. It seems like a transfer of increasingly worthless money to the wealthy but they too will be dragged down. Like killing the goose who lays the golden eggs.
Comments?
D
Money is created when people / businesses / government obtain loans and spend the proceeds. The amount of these loans looks like it will be dropping precipitously, as the various borrowers default on loans and lenders become increasingly wary of making new loans.
The government may try to bail out lenders, but even with all of this new money, it will be difficult to replace what has recently been available.
DelusionaL,
I have read that using the Case-Schiller numbers so far, about 1.3 trillion dollars of 'hallucinated wealth' (hat tip to JHK) in the form of US residential housing equity have evaporated already. Mish Shedlock, Enrico Orlandini, and other respected analysts believe that the deflationary cascade will overwhelm the capacity of the US gov't credit rating to bail out.
We shall see.
Errol in Miami
It is difficult to understand how and when the inflation will change over to deflation. For one thing, it happens simultaneously. (Food and energy prices have been rising while suburban real estate equity has been vanishing.)
The thing to keep in mind is that most of our assets only have full value if we're not all trying to sell them at the same time.
Another key point is that as state budgets go into deficits, they will likely choose to defund pension plans and sell off assets at bargain basement prices.
For starters, everyone should check out Chris Martenson's Crash Course. Just google:
end of money crash course