<Oilwatch Monthly - July 2008The Oil DrumDrumBeat: July 17, 2008>

57 comments on Solving the "Enigma" of Reserve Growth

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jeffvail on July 16, 2008 - 10:43am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

"To top it off, this heuristic shows unlimited growth!"

This is a very important insight. It's one thing to march out equations and models of reserve growth that, frankly, most people won't fully understand. But when you point out that the existing reserve growth methodology assumes the possibility of infinite growth in an obviously finite reservoir, anyone with half a brain should be able to realize that the existing methodology is deeply, deeply flawed.

You may even want to re-caption the "enigma" vs. "reality" graph at top, saying something like: "Prevailing reserve growth claims imply that there are infinite reserves in obviously finite reservoirs. Faced with such an transparently incorrect model, the question remaining is not IF reserve growth models are wrong, but HOW LOW the asymptotic barrier of 'reality' lies."

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WebHubbleTelescope on July 16, 2008 - 8:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thank you for the comment. If you look at the A&R heuristic, it also shows an infinite first derivative at T=0, or essentially an infinite growth rate near zero. That supports that something is very fishy about how they came up with the heuristic.

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