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225 comments on DrumBeat: July 19, 2008
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225 comments on DrumBeat: July 19, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Probably true to some degree, but at age 80, having made more money since he turned 70 than his cumulative income prior to 70, I think that he is primarily motivated by his concern for the future of the country. In any case, from the linked article:
T. Boone Pickens is a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
Most oilmen, especially the old-timers, know that solar and wind will deliver about as much real energy as a cigarette lighter where energy is needed, that is in transportation.
The idea of using solar power to generate electric power in order to free up natural gas for transportation begins to look like Rube Goldberg, especially because the energy used in developing solar and wind would consume enormous amounts of oil and drive up the price of oil even higher.....hmmmmmmmmm.
Kind o makes me wonder what is goin on here??? :)
What if the real goal isn't to fuel cars, but to make some money while hopefully preventing the meltdown of the economy due to massive energy shortages overall?
For the American populace, saying "Gas prices are too high. Tell ya what, I'll invest a billion bucks to give you cheap electricity, and that'll free up some natural gas for car use, and that will drive down fuel costs nationwide" seems pretty upbeat and palatable.
If you say, "Over the next five years you will become unable to afford to drive your car, the nation's wealth will be sapped to pay to heat the NE during the winter, and then we'll all freeze together once that too is gone. But if we build my wind farm, you can keep your cars for another few years and then heat your house for a while after that while we work like hell to come up with something else" it just doesn't sound as good.
Coupling wind and CNG is just marketing -- the real point is building wind energy production at a profit. Everything else is spin or candy-coating.
But from what I've read numerous times here on the Oil Drum, is that we are likely to experience SERIOUS problems with Peak Natural Gas in the next few years. So just how realistic is this whole idea on any even medium-term basis?
Antoinetta III
Antoinetta III, you are right, of course.
I don't understand what you are so het up about.
Of course gas is going to get too expensive to use for transport for most people.
Keeping electricity up is a very good idea, we all need (like) fridges and washing machines and computers and more. Keeping the grid up and running any which way is smart. Going completely renewable (wind, solar and muscle) is even smarter.
It might even be possible to keep a few threads of our interconnected cultures alive...
What else is there to do? Wind is still one of the best choices. If transportation collapses, that is very bad, if the grid goes with it.....
And of course electric rail is the best choice for transportation .
I agree 100%. It doesn't matter what the marketing spin is, in the end if you get wind supply built, it's a net positive.
Consider the converse, what is the downside of building Picket's Plan? That an old man might make some money? Is there any other significant negative consequence?
Actually, you want the most money to be made by old people. You get a faster return on your investment through the higher rate of the estate tax vs. income tax.
Based on this real world comparison done by the Japan EV Club, usiing a Mitsubishi i MiEV and a Subaru R1e, the electric cars covered the journey using electricity generated by one sixth of the FF energy required by a typical Japanese gasoline car. Given a likely bias from the source, let's cut that advantage in half, to a third. Still a big gain in my book. Is it possible that, electrified transport will only require as much energy as a cigarette lighter?
Alan from the islands
Actually, I was a little disappointed by the Japanese numbers. They used about 160 watt/hours per mile. AC Propulsion and Solectria were putting up better numbers in the 1990s. But Hokkaido is pretty rough country; maybe there were a lot of hills on the route.
We've got to get it under 100 watt/hours per mile if we're going to put out affordable electric cars. The math says it's possible.
Damn right it's possible! After just about 100 years of tweaking and massaging the ICE, with millions of dollars spent on research and development, we're still stuck at about 30% maximum efficiency. No amount of electronically controlled ignition, fuel injection, variable valve timing, variable length intake manifolds, supercharging, turbocharging or (insert favorite technology here), has been able to get past the theoretical limit of efficiency set by the laws of thermodynamics.
On the other hand, electric drive trains, batteries and electronic systems have theoretical efficiencies that can exceed 80%. What will the efficiency of a typical battery electric vehicle be, after 50 years of R&D at the level that has been devoted to the ICE?
Alan from the islands
Not a direct thermodynamic limit per se, but a limitation of materials. You can make the heat to work conversion efficiency as high as you like by increasing the temperature at the hot end of the cycle.
The basic problem is that we don't have a (cheap) material that can take high temperatures while maintaining good mechanical strength and manufacturability. Metals have an upper operating temperature of about 1000oC give or take a couple of hundred, and that is what results in the thermodynamic efficiency of about 30%.
Ceramics take higher temperatures but are much harder to manufacture machine parts from and have crap tensile strength.
Hey Island boy,
Lets talk about moving real 18 wheel trucks, instead of little Japanese toys.
Okay, since you asked:
Brown Goes Green: UPS adds 50 new HEV trucks to delivery fleet
In case you think that's hot air, this one ain't no freakin hybrid
Brown goes green in NYC: Full-sized UPS EV truck
Neither is this one from the city of London
Modec truck looks great in UPS brown
For a little balance
FedEx puts 2 million miles on hybrid trucks, adds 75 more
Let's look at something a little heavier, the one in the background
Confirmed: Smith electric to build the Ampere and the Faraday II
Unfortunately you may not be seeing the above stateside
Bad economy prompts Smith Electric vehicles to curtail expansion
If you're gonna pick on a Prius, make sure his bigger Japanese cousin isn't around
Mitsubishi Fuso's new Green Truck
How about a real heavy duty hybrid
Volvo revving up its trucks with heavy-duty hybrid drivetrains
Here's a couple of hybrids from closer to home
Peterbilt shows off medium-duty hybrid truck
Eaton confirms order from Coke for 120 hybrid trucks
Peterbilt, Eaton and Wal-Mart partner on diesel-electric hybrid truck
Now, "about moving real 18 wheel trucks"
Heavy duty (really heavy duty) electric truck in use at LA port
All the above are not vaporware but actual working trucks, albeit most of them are being evaluated. They were all found by searching just one web site, Autobloggreen.com.
A google search for "electric truck reminded me that some of the biggest beasts of them all, the giant earth movers, have always been diesel electric hybrids. It was actually easier to use electric motors to transfer the huge amounts of power to the wheels, than to use a mechanical transmission. Many of the "stradle carriers" used in container terminals around the world to shuffle the containers around, are diesel electric hybrids as well.
With diesel fuel getting more expensive and in some places impossible to get, while batteries are likely to get better and less expensive, making the leap from diesel electric to battery electric doesn't seem too far fetched. This is certainly applicanle for short haul trips within a city or from a rail line to a factory or distribution center.
Alan from the islands
Alan - thanks for the links. You have enough material there for a guest post on this important topic - shoot an email to the editors box or nate@theoildrum.com if interested.
Just like I said, no 18 wheelers for long haul.
And what is the source of electric power -- 50% from dirty coal, 20% from natural gas, some from nuclear and oil.
And a 50% plus loss of fossil energy in power generation.
Then some loss in power transmission.
Then a 25% loss in the batteries.
Sounds to me like a lot of waste of fossil energy to get electric energy.
And what about the infrastructure for all of the electric economy, there are not even any plans for how to do all of it, and it would be trillions of dollars of infrastructure for the thousands of miles of highway.
Big capital costs in change over that will not be made in today's global bankrupt economy.
Seems like you solar folks are talking about what you dream about, rather than what is real.
And in so doing the above you are not looking at reality, the end of oil and time for risk management. We are moving at 100 MPH and the end of the tracks is just ahead, and you can't see it as you dream of what can never be.
This site is full of MEN, mostly MEN from the richest and most affluent societies on earth, who are obsessed with trying to invent technofixes to keeping things economic growth going, rather than careful analysis, which indicates that we have lost the battle with nature and can't keep this economy on the same path of everyone thinking they can have all the material possessions they want.
We've mostly used up our one time endowment of oil, and now you are grasping at straws, like solar and wind, which give us electric power, which we will have a surplus of when the factories, plazas, and airports shut down, this is happening today.
What will you do with spare electric power?
We have met the enemy and it is us, and ideologies and cultures of affluence, arrogance, and greed.
When the highways and power grid go out, so too will your solar toys.
Steel, aluminium, titanium, carbon fibres, cast metals, machined metals, hydrogen for fertilizer fuel and other chemistry, streetlights on bicycle paths, power plug-in hybrids, space heating via heat pumps, wooden furniture, power railways, semiconductors, solar cells, xmas lights, etc, etc.
In economic depression (coming to a movie theater near you soon) we will have spare electric power, more than is needed to do what you have above, and what do you do with it, can't store it or eat it. Hydrogen for fertilizer, not much of that being done. Power railways, nice idea, but we have few and no $$$ to build more. Sorry :(
Huh? I'm sure everyone here is familiar with the work of Alan Drake. Just in case you missed it, he advocates the rapid build out of electrified rail for long distance freight haulage to replace big rigs and passenger transport to replace air travel. If trains are doing the longer distance haulage, electric and hybrid trucks could take care of the last miles.
Oh, and those Japanese toys would come in mighty handy for 10km trips to your nearest Walmart when it's raining down there in Mexico, assuming you've got enough wind and solar to charge one. At 86kWh for 859km or 10km/kWh, I'd guess about 5kW of solar PV should be sufficient to keep one micro EV in a sufficient state of charge and have some left over to run a small fridge, a computer, a radio and a few CFLs. If you've got good wind, you could buy a large fridge or set up a solar powered absorption chiller and become the local cold storage guy.
Alan from the islands
"He advocates the rapid build out of electrified rail for long distance freight haulage to replace big rigs and passenger transport
to replace air travel. If trains are doing the longer distance haulage, electric and hybrid trucks could take care of the last miles."
Advocating one thing, actually doing it is another. And where is the capital for this trillion dollar adjustment going to from when oil is $200, then $500, then $5,000 per barrel.???????????
I advocate the we should scrap the global consumer economy immediately, idle all cars, close all of the malls, stop eating packaged foors, stop drinking sodas, beer and wine, and get serious about using the remaining oil for survival.
Unfortunately, 99.99999999 percent of the people are laughing at my proposals.
And I am not giving up drinking red zinfandel wine!
http://gencat.eloquent-systems.com/webcat/systems/toronto.arch/resource/...
http://gencat.eloquent-systems.com/webcat/systems/toronto.arch/resource/...
http://gencat.eloquent-systems.com/webcat/systems/toronto.arch/resource/...
Best Hopes for Getting as Much Done as We can Beforehand,
Alan
I can see curtailing all automotive travel, but stopping all beer drinking - the State of Texas would NEVER go for that.Be careful CJ you might start another revolution with your proposals.