33 comments on Lester addresses U.S. governors on energy future, calls for Marshall Plan for energy innovation
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cjwirth -
So, you really believe that The Answer is to be found in a 31-year-old study by the National Academy of Science - an organization which, as best I can tell, is a government-funded mutual admiration society of academic elites and whose main purpose appears to be the generation of scholary papers, the hosting and attending of conferences, and the handing out of awards?
Hi Joule,
I provided the link to the NAS study in the hopes that people would read this study as an example of how to undertake a policy analysis of energy policy.
Energy policy analysis cuts across all aspects of society, the economy, industry, health, the environment, global warming, and government. A basic method of this study is to have scientists from all fields working together to avoid biases as much as possible.
Your comment indicates that you have not read the study, nor examined who the scientists were/are who conducted the study, nor how the study was organized. The scientists represented industry, government and academics from all different fields. Mutual admiration would be the last thing to characterize these scientists and their work. And I doubt that their work lead to academic publications
The study was organized in panels of scientists who conducted studies and then a central committee used those studies to come to realistic conclusions regarding the direction the nation should take.
In addition, there is a section so that dissenting views of these scientists are presented.
The study does not answer questions for today. Interestingly, however, many of the problems are the same since the study was done, and it's predictions in terms of Peak Oil timing are on pretty much on target.
Improvements have been made in photovoltaic technology, for example, but the study focuses on the problems of finding liquid fuels and batteries that will be able hold as much energy as a tank full of gasoline or diesel --- these problems are the same today.
Moreover, energy scientists should read the study, as it educates everyone from different fields that many have little contact with.
600 pages of often technical material is a lot to read, but it is important if one wants to be a policy analyst with some understanding of all fields.
The NAS is the one organization that Congress can have confidence in.
As most readers on this site know, the hydrogen economy is the biggest hoax in the alternative energy field. Yet a recent MSNBC headline is:
HYDROGEN FUTURE DOABLE, EXPERTS TELL CONGRESS
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25719194/
Congress does not have the technical staff to cut through such myths, nor do they have the staff to find and analyze the research studies by the NAS and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that conclude that the hydrogen economy is not feasible.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10922#toc
http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTR...
The idea is to give Congress advice in one source that they can trust, rather than differing experts who will tell them what is best for their industry (so that they can get more government subsidies), rather than what is best for the nation.
Unless Congress alters how it decides on policy, however, it will continue to decide not on what is best for that nation, but what is best for narrow constituent and interest group preferences.
Cheers,
Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D.
Peak Oil Associates International
The National Academy of Science was chartered during the Lincoln administration to give advice to the whole Federal Government, not just to Congress. The people in the White House know the telephone number to call to talk to NAS people, but prefer to get advice exclusively from VP cronies.
I agree, but I doubt the people in the White House even know the NAS exists, and they don't need any data, because they know what to do "from the gut:"
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-869183917758574879
Congress needs to appropriate the funds, a tiny amount, and it is amazing that Congress has not commissioned an ongoing major NAS energy policy study.
But this "new energy crisis" will probably spur a new study.
In regard to the hydrogen economy, it might never be done, not because it is impossible, but because there is an alternative way of achieving the same goals that is much easier to develop. If it is abandoned because of a switch to an easier alternative, we will never know for sure whether or not it was possible.
The alternative is called, by its inventor, 'the methanol economy'. The inventor is George Olah, winner of Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1994. Olah presents his idea in a book, "Beyond Oil and Gas: The Methanol Economy". Olah was elected to the National Academy of Science in 1976.
METHANOL ECONOMY disadvantages:
* high energy costs associated with generating hydrogen (when needed to synthesize methanol)
* depending on the feedstock the generation in itself can be not clean
* presently generated from syngas still dependent on fossil fuels (although in theory any energy source can be used).
* energy density (by weight or volume) one half of that of gasoline and 24% less than ethanol[5]
* corrosive to some metals including aluminum, zinc and manganese. Parts of the engine fuel-intake systems is made from aluminum. Similar to ethanol, compatible material for fuel tanks, gasket and engine intake have to be used.
* hydrophilic: attracts water: in mixture with gasoline this could lead to phase separation and difficulty to start the engine or make it run smoothly
* methanol, as an alcohol, increases the permeability of some plastics to fuel vapors (e.g. high-density polyethylene). [6] This property of methanol has the possibility of increasing emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from fuel, which contributes to increased tropospheric ozone and possibly human exposure.
* low volatity in cold weather: pure methanol-fueled engines can be difficult to start, and they run inefficiently until warmed up. This is why, a mixture containing 85% methanol and 15% gasoline called M85 is generally used in ICEs. The gasoline allows the engine to start even at lower temperatures.
* Methanol is generally considered toxic[7].Methanol is in fact toxic and eventually lethal when ingested in larger amounts (30 to 100 mL).[8] But so are most motor fuels, including gasoline (120 to 300 mL) and diesel fuel. Gasoline also contains many compounds known to be carcinogenic (e.g. benzene). Methanol is not a, nor contains any, carcinogens.
* methanol is a liquid: this creates a greater fire risk compared to hydrogen in open spaces. Methanol leaks do not dissipate. Compared to gasoline, however, methanol is much safer. It is more difficult to ignite and releases less heat when it burns. The EPA has estimated that switching fuels from gasoline to methanol would reduce the incidence of fuel related fires by 90%.[9]
* methanol accidentally released from leaking underground fuel storage tanks may undergo relatively rapid groundwater transport and contaminate well water, although this risk has not been thoroughly studied. The history of the fuel additive methyl t-butyl ether (MTBE) as a groundwater contaminant has highlighted the importance of assessing the potential impacts of fuel and fuel additives on multiple environmental media. [10]. An accidental release of methanol in the environment would, however, cause much less damage than a comparable gasoline or crude oil spill. Unlike these fuels, methanol, being totally soluble in water, would be rapidly diluted to a concentration low enough for microorganism to start biodegradation. Methanol is in fact used for denitrification in water treatment plant as a nutrient for bacterias.[11]
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol_economy
HYDROGEN ECONOMY:
In 2004, the National Academy of Engineering identified significant problems with a hydrogen economy in, The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs:
“There are major hurdles on the path to achieving the vision of the hydrogen economy; the path will not be simple or straightforward. Many of the committee’s observations generalize across the entire hydrogen economy: the hydrogen system must be cost-competitive, it must be safe and appealing to the consumer and it would preferably offer advantages from the perspectives of energy security and CO2 emissions. Specifically for the transportation sector, dramatic progress in the development of fuel cells, storage devices, and distribution systems is especially critical. Widespread success is not certain. The committee believes that for hydrogen-fueled transportation, the four most fundamental technological and economic challenges are these:
1. To develop and introduce cost-effective, durable, safe, and environmentally desirable fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage systems. Current fuel cell lifetimes are much too short and fuel cell costs are at least an order of magnitude too high. An on-board vehicular hydrogen storage system that has an energy density approaching that of gasoline systems has not been developed. Thus, the resulting range of vehicles with existing hydrogen storage systems is much too short.
2. To develop the infrastructure to provide hydrogen for the light-duty-vehicle user. Hydrogen is currently produced in large quantities at reasonable costs for industrial purposes. The committee’s analysis indicates that at a future, mature stage of development, hydrogen (H2) can be produced and used in fuel cell vehicles at reasonable cost. The challenge, with today’s industrial hydrogen as well as tomorrow’s hydrogen, is the high cost of distributing H2 to dispersed locations. This challenge is especially severe during the early years of a transition, when demand is even more dispersed. The costs of a mature hydrogen pipeline system would be spread over many users, as the cost of the natural gas system is today. But the transition is difficult to imagine in detail. It requires many technological innovations related to the development of small-scale production units. Also, nontechnical factors such as financing, siting, security, environmental impact, and the perceived safety of hydrogen pipelines and dispensing systems will play a significant role. All of these hurdles must be overcome before there can be widespread use. An initial stage during which hydrogen is produced at small scale near the small user seems likely. In this case, production costs for small production units must be sharply reduced, which may be possible with expanded research.
3. To reduce sharply the costs of hydrogen production from renewable energy sources, over a time frame of decades. Tremendous progress has been made in reducing the cost of making electricity from renewable energy sources. But making hydrogen from renewable energy through the intermediate step of making electricity, a premium energy source, requires further breakthroughs in order to be competitive. Basically, these technology pathways for hydrogen production make electricity, which is converted to hydrogen, which is later converted by a fuel cell back to electricity. These steps add costs and energy losses that are particularly significant when the hydrogen competes as a commodity transportation fuel—leading the committee to believe that most current approaches—except possibly that of wind energy—need to be redirected. The committee believes that the required cost reductions can be achieved only by targeted fundamental and exploratory research on hydrogen production by photobiological, photochemical, and thin-film solar processes.
4. To capture and store (“sequester”) the carbon dioxide by-product of hydrogen production from coal. Coal is a massive domestic U.S. energy resource that has the potential for producing cost-competitive hydrogen. However, coal processing generates large amounts of CO2. In order to reduce CO2 emissions from coal processing in carbon-constrained future, massive amounts of CO2 would have to be captured and safely and reliably sequestered for hundreds of years. Key to the commercialization of a large-scale, coal-based hydrogen production option (and also for natural-gas-based options) is achieving broad public acceptance, along with additional technical development, for CO2 sequestration.
For a viable hydrogen transportation system to emerge, all four of these challenges must be addressed.” (Emphasis added)
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10922#toc
Regarding the hydrogen economy, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005) concluded that “there are tremendous problems to overcome; once we have solved the production, transmission, and resource issues, then the switch to hydrogen may occur. This is a long term issue and the hydrogen economy is decades away. The tools to make it work, such as safe nuclear reactors, windmills, and fuel cells are still in the development or early adoption phases. To realize the potential benefits of a hydrogen economy – sustainability, increased energy security, a diverse energy supply, and reduced air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions – hydrogen must be produced cleanly, efficiently, and affordably from regionally available, renewable resources.”
http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTR...
Clifford J. Wirth
Peak Oil Associates International
OK, both 'economies' have serious problems. Perhaps we should divide the country into about thirty strips running north/south, each strip about 100 miles wide. Assign even strips to hydrogen and odd strips to methanol, and work on both. ;-)
Good idea, let's take the 2 worst ideas and work on them, and the heck with the others, and the heck with the possibility of putting the oil that would be used on these vague possibilities into risk management and planning for when there is not enough oil to support the highways and power grid.
By fundamental rules of entropy, the oppertunity costs of hydrogen energy carrier transportation (whether methanol or direct hydrogen) will always be substantially higher than storing electricity.
The problem about hydrogen is that it is in no way, and absolutely no way, superiour to direct electrical traction. Anyone who says otherwise doesn't know his/her engineering and entropy. Engineers that do work on it are favoritists not rationalists.
Methanol doesn't have to be synthesized with hydrogen though. Gassifying biomass, then turning it into methanol (eg via Hynol process) is very efficient. New methanol engines are being developed with 40% average efficiency, better peak and average efficiency than diesels. Such a BTL-ICE system could have an overall efficiency of 25-30% which is quite reasonable; biomass-EV system might get 35-40%.
This could work very well with plugin hybrids, and applications in which electric powering is almost impossible.