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170 comments on DrumBeat: July 20, 2008

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Undertow on July 20, 2008 - 9:44am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Invest 94 approaches Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

1. THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

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mcgowanmc on July 20, 2008 - 11:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What I'm noticing is their complete confidence that this
will not grow and will hit SW Texas.

Even as my weatherpeople can't tell me weather more than 48 hrs ahead.

""As much of the Southeast experiences record drought, our findings indicate that weak tropical systems could significantly contribute to rainfall totals that can bring relief to the region,” said Shepherd, lead author of the NASA-funded study. "These types of storms are significant rain producers. The larger hurricanes aren’t frequent enough to produce most of the actual rain during the season and therefore are not the primary storm type that relieves drought in the region."-12.07.07

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2007/smallstorm_la...

so at the least someone on the US GOM could get 15 inches of rain.

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Gail the Actuary on July 20, 2008 - 12:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

According to Reuters:

Tropical storm Dolly is forecast to strike Mexico at about 23:45 GMT on 20 July. Data supplied by the US National Hurricane Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 19.7 N, 86.3 W. Dolly is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 74 km/h (46 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

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cowpoke on July 20, 2008 - 11:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Say hello to Dolly.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1744172#p1744172

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Undertow on July 20, 2008 - 12:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Hello Dolly!"

You're looking swell, Dolly,
We can tell, Dolly,
You're still glowin', you're still crowin'
You're still goin' strong.
We feel the room swayin'

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jeffvail on July 20, 2008 - 1:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Looks like Dolly will threat the needle and not affect either Mexican offshore production infrastructure or Texas offshore or onshore oil infrastructure. Of course, track forcasts are very uncertain, especially when projecting as far forward as a second landfall in Texas.

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Undertow on July 20, 2008 - 2:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Looks as if it may be moving north of forecast tracks and strengthening rapidly. A direct hit on Houston at hurricane strength is by no means impossible; although by no means probable either (at time of writing) it has to be said before everyone panics!

Definitely one to watch very closely.

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mcgowanmc on July 20, 2008 - 3:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

.WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/201542.shtml

The slower it goes and the more it strengthens, the less
reliable the forecast becomes.

Here's the path of Hurricane Dolly circa 1996:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/1996/storms/dolly/dolly.html

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Undertow on July 20, 2008 - 10:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From reading the storm2k site linked above, seems they think Dolly may have just turned a lot nastier.

Latest discussion link http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=101807&st=0&sk=t&sd=a...

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ace on July 21, 2008 - 5:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dolly could become a hurricane soon as the eye appears to have formed. Better organization is still required.

The animated loop link below shows Dolly could move more northward to south Texas if the high pressure ridge moves westward. Click on MSLP checkbox to show isobar contours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Tapis and Minas oil prices have also just started moving back up again and are over $140/barrel now.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude

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170 comments on DrumBeat: July 20, 2008

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