What I'm noticing is their complete confidence that this
will not grow and will hit SW Texas.

Even as my weatherpeople can't tell me weather more than 48 hrs ahead.

""As much of the Southeast experiences record drought, our findings indicate that weak tropical systems could significantly contribute to rainfall totals that can bring relief to the region,” said Shepherd, lead author of the NASA-funded study. "These types of storms are significant rain producers. The larger hurricanes aren’t frequent enough to produce most of the actual rain during the season and therefore are not the primary storm type that relieves drought in the region."-12.07.07

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2007/smallstorm_la...

so at the least someone on the US GOM could get 15 inches of rain.

According to Reuters:

Tropical storm Dolly is forecast to strike Mexico at about 23:45 GMT on 20 July. Data supplied by the US National Hurricane Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 19.7 N, 86.3 W. Dolly is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 74 km/h (46 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.