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42 comments on Well, Hello Dolly! (Aw C'mon, Someone Had to Say It): Updated--Putting Dolly to Bed and Hoping She Causes Little Suffering

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netfind on July 21, 2008 - 12:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

October '07 seems to be a turning point on the Imports chart. The yellow line (I'm assuming that's '07) breaks out of the yearly pattern to the downside, which continues with the '08 blue line. Two other events of note occured simultaneously in October '07. Russia, the other mega exporter besides Saudi Arabia, had barely been keeping up with the demand increases from the BRIC countries. But their much appreciated production climb turned in October into a continuing decline. The other October event was the beginning of the sharp oil price climb from $80 to now. Is this what OPEC calls a well supplied market?

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westexas on July 21, 2008 - 2:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This is my 6/2/08 missive (with help from PG, and with a data table by Datamunger) on the Gulf Coast situation:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4092

We are seeing two large consuming regions facing problems with proximal producing regions--Europe (with North Sea and Russia) and the US (with Venezulea and Mexico). At their recent rate of decline, net oil exports from Mexico--our #3 source of imported crude oil--could approach zero as soon as late 2010. Extrapolating out Venezuela's current rate of decline suggests that they could approach zero net oil exports in about 20 years or so.

Europe and the US (even though they are showing mostly declining consumption) are still having to start replacing short supply lines with much longer supply lines--as some regions in the world, such as China, are trying to boost their imports to meet higher demand.

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42 comments on Well, Hello Dolly! (Aw C'mon, Someone Had to Say It): Updated--Putting Dolly to Bed and Hoping She Causes Little Suffering

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