The question is ... will you ... or anyone elee put your money where your predictions are? I don't mean a five dollar bet, either.

Only a fool who is well capitalized ... will attempt to predict prices of anything ... rice, interest rates, gold, uranium ... in a narrow time frame. Markets will fluctuate.

The trend in petroleum is up; higher highs and higher lows. Ditto gold. Is there a 'bubble' in commodities? Is it possible for there to be a bubble in commodities? (There is a negative feedback mechanism in commodity price rises that does not exist in internet stocks or real estate.)

As far as the CFTC report; what do you think they are going to say? Their interests are aligned with the big players who are making the NYMEX and other exchanges into bling machines. "Yah, it's all fundamentals of supply and demand and let's not look at the man behind the curtain!" Lenin was half right; the capitalists are in the rope business and they will sell enough to hang everyone in sight including close family membars.

Question? What other exchanges are arenas for maximum profit? How about ANY profit? Who is making money, today? There is the 'Hot Money' ... this is going to China, which is trying to corral it .... and into commodities. Commodities is a small market. Big, hot money can distort those markets just by showing up at the door.

Gold is going up too. Are we nearing peak gold? (Probably ... ditto peak water.) Real estate is taking a nose dive, stock markets around the world are tanking, bonds are looking crappy ... the central banks are creating money ... where does it all go? Not to me! Not to you, either. The Chinese and Japan are swimming in dollars; 'native' currencies can only be repatriated to their countries of origin. (You cannot buy a loaf of bread in Kansas with Britixh Pounds or Euros) If you have dollars and are overseas, what can you buy ... for trillions of dollars? Treasury securities? Yield on the 10 yr today is 4.10 pct. Oil has doubled ... since last week!

The trend is up, higher highs and higher lows.

Oil and gold. Copper and iron ore. Buying oil allows Saudi Arabia and China to launder the dollars. The Chinese buy Saudi oil with dollars and the Saudis repatriate them by buying Fannie Mae bonds. They're backed by the US government ... it sez so on the box!

The Chinese have a trillion US cash dollars in reserve! They can outbid us for oil or anything else. Yes, we can print ... we can repatriate all of our 'discount4d' money, too; our Treasury bonds and notes by printing all the money we need ... but ... if it ever gets to that point ... and we are getting there, fast ... the world that we know is coming to an end ... even if oil costs $50 a barrel. Nobody will have any money or it won't be worth anything.

Welcome to Zimbabwe! When we have to sell apples, I have my spot already picked out!

:)