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112 comments on POLL: CLU08 went through $127/bbl today..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...
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112 comments on POLL: CLU08 went through $127/bbl today..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...
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GAIA Host Collective
This news about Oman production and exports came out a couple of days ago, however I have not seen much discussion about it in the relevant energy website, the information reported may seem trivial since Oman daily production is quite small (739k bpd), however the trends demonstrated in the numbers have big implications for future oil prices:
Oman oil production rose by 3.6% in the first 5 months of 2008; however oil exports declined by 5.1% compared to the first 5 months of 2007, due to high domestic consumption, fueled by 12.9% growth in GDP due to the high oil prices.
In the Export Land Model developed Jeffrey Brown, oil exports are expected to decline at a faster rate then production, once a nation experince post peak oil production combined with rising consumption, however the trend with Oman is quite different and even more alarming, as oil exports may decline even if the country oil production is rising, due to internal consumption growing faster then oil production.
There has been other countries with flat production that had a decline in exports (most notably Russia), but I have not seen a country with 3.6% production growth, experince a 5.1% export decline, if this same trende continue and expand to other Gulf countries, the implications for oil prices will be very signifcant.
Regards,
Nawar
Oman news:
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/OGN_146785.html
The US is the prime example of rising production and declining net oil exports. We went from a leading exporter, and the primary source of oil for the Allies in the Second World War, to net importer status in just a few years--in the late Forties, more than 20 years before our production peaked.
Of course, as you noted, when we see a combination of declining production and rising consumption, we tend to see an accelerating net export decline rate, which is of course what I believe is driving oil prices. I think that we are seeing brief periods of stability between supply & demand, and then net oil exports fall again.