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384 comments on DrumBeat: July 23, 2008

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westexas on July 23, 2008 - 8:44am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Re: Peak Oil a Myth (linked uptop)

He claims it's geopolitical problems in oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and Venezuela that's pushing up oil prices, rather than dwindling supply.

True, it is self-evident that all production declines are due to political instability in producing regions--such as the Midland based Communist takeover of Texas oil fields in the Seventies, and the radical tofu wielding Vegan takeover of North Sea oil fields in 2000:

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/TexasAndNorthSea.png

In fact, if private oil companies--using the best available technology, with virtually no restriction on drilling--had remained in charge of Texas and the North Sea, these two regions would probably be producing in excess of 10 mbpd by now--and perhaps in excess of 20 mbpd.

Gotta go now. I have to report in to the Politburo in Midland, Texas.

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GauharJK on July 23, 2008 - 8:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Gotta go now. I have to report in to the Politburo in Midland, Texas.

lol... lol... So, Comrade, LONG LIVE MARXISM-LENINISM! and OIL ADDICTION!

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fireangel on July 23, 2008 - 9:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Was this posted yesterday?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLLrhZOGOD_M&refer=h...

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned energy company, said oil output fell 11 percent in June from a year earlier as new wells failed to keep pace with a four-year decline in the aging Cantarell field, the nation's largest.

Production dropped to 2.839 million barrels a day in June from 3.206 million a year earlier, the Mexico City-based company, known as Pemex, said today on its Web site. ....

Mexico's Congress wraps up 71 days of debate on Calderon's oil-reform bill tomorrow."

Holy oil Batman! 71 days of debate!

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Beach Boy on July 23, 2008 - 11:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This very important news should be kept in mind when reading the third paragraph of the "Congress Pursues $80 Oil With Trading Limits, Disclosure Rules" item above.

"Excluding the effect of speculation, oil would be around $80 a barrel, 38 percent lower than yesterday's price, according to Jesus Reyes Heroles, the chief executive officer of Petroleos Mexicanos.

Si, Señor Reyes Heroles. It must be so frustrating to see speculators driving the price up even as your company is flooding the market with oil.

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NeverLNG on July 23, 2008 - 9:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This Peter McCabe has pretty impressive credentials. http://www.csiro.au/people/Peter.McCabe.html
Reportedly, he was just elected president of the American Geological Institute. He is a real geologist, unlike, say Bjorn Lombard, and he is pretty quantitative about his claims, and one imagines, has the data to back them up.

I enjoy the exchanges on the Oil Drum, and I learn a lot -- especially when the claims of supposed experts are examined by other experts. On the other hand, my field is not geology or oil -- and by analogy with dueling experts in my own field, I recognize that ego or greed sometimes trumps truth-- so I am not surprised when seemingly impossible claims are made.

Will someone who knows about this please enlighten the ignorant TOD readers such as myself?

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martinw on July 23, 2008 - 9:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Perhaps he is just confusing peak oil with running out of oil? Seems a rather basic mistake for someone of his background to make, but his 65 year estimate is the point where it is all gone at the present rate of consumption, and has nothing to say about the peak. In fact the point where half is gone, and so a peak is expected, is only 15 years away, and that is with his optimistic estimate of 2 trillion barrels still remaining.

Also note the misleading nature of the 65 year estimate, since it is "at the current level of world production". Simply maintaining current levels of production is not going to cut it.

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JonFreise on July 23, 2008 - 10:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dr McCabe was a member of the US Geological Survey Assessment of global oil supplies, and says the figures show oil will last for many decades to come.

This was the survey that applied the US reserve growth phenomena (of proven reserves) to world wide IHS database reserve data. The methodology has been discredited by multiple sources. You can read about it in detail in the Energy Watch Groups Oil Report

The second point of critique refers to the fact that – as is known to all experts - the growth of
reserves in the USA in the past was much higher than elsewhere. This is a direct consequence of the regulations by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), which for financial reasons call for very conservative evaluations at the beginning of the development of an oil field. This US practice leads to systematic underestimations.

For these reasons this marked reserve growth in the past was only observed in the USA and can not be extrapolated into the next 30 years, nor even less can this pattern be applied to the whole world.

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karlof1 on July 23, 2008 - 1:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

His membership/participation in that greatly distorted report really hurts his credibility. Oh, and his citing aboveground politics as the sole reason for oil price rise totally ignores the current reality of the production plateau. He might just as well have cited the abiotic hypothesis of oil origin.

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ozonehole on July 23, 2008 - 1:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

it is self-evident that all production declines are due to political instability in producing regions--such as the Midland based Communist takeover of Texas oil fields in the Seventies, and the radical tofu wielding Vegan takeover of North Sea oil fields in 2000

Very astute observation, but let's not forget the devastation caused by gay marriage and the teaching of sex education and evolution in school! Surely, these evils are behind the rise in gasoline prices.

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