Above ground factors:
Chairman Tom Cole website@nrcc.org sent this:
When Americans are canceling vacations because gasoline is over $4.00 per gallon, Democrats plan to adjourn work for a month-long vacation the first of August WITHOUT holding a vote to drill for American oil.
This is inexcusable.
(errr Americans are canceling vacations and that is 'inexcusable'?)
Can you believe this? Frank Busalacchi resists rail building in Wisconsin and says funding is a local issue. He’s happy to use state and federal resources to build highways, though.
But for the out-of-state crowd, he’s quite willing to promote rail transit!
Frank Busalacchi wrote this letter on July 8th, 2008 to the Kansas City Star extolling rail. He says Americans are “flocking to passenger trains,” and that the Milwaukee-Chicago Amtrak route has “standing-room-only problems” even after coaches were added “just a year ago.”
I saw the Lady Minnesota Senator on Drill Drill Drill Magoo last night and she said "some Minnesotans aren't even going to their lakehouse this summer".....
Waaaah!!! Get used to it. However, my guess is that most of those who are fortunate enough to own an extra house, can afford these gas prices. By next summer, perhaps, they will have done something smart by buying an economy car.
The 'fortunates' are not paying their credit card bills, I doubt they will be buying more houses. In fact, I gazed into my crystal ball and asked that question...'will fat cats buy more houses'...My smart azz crystal ball replied...'out houses'. If I could get my nine bucks back from that gypsy I would return the ball...alas, they broke camp long ago.
'Today it's being engraved on the back of American Express charge plates and printed on outgoing cardmember statements informing hapless business owners and vacationers from Traverse City, MI to Ocala, FL that their credit lines have been slashed, their markers called in.
According to Chenault (CEO), cardmember spending, particularly among consumers, slowed sharply during the latter part of the quarter. "Credit indicators, as we signaled a few weeks ago, deteriorated beyond our expectations," Chenault glumly intoned, adding that "by almost any measure" the U.S. economy and business environment are much weaker than the assumptions made back in January and as recently as early June.
The awful kicker, especially for the luxury box set, is that the fallout was evident across all consumer segments. "Even our longer-term superprime Cardmembers," Chenault said. Consequently,given the environment, "we'll continue to scale back some card acquisition efforts and reduce credit lines selectively in the U.S.," he added.'
My wife and I had our car loan called in by U.S. Bancorp! We were NOT even notified ahead of time! They just took our 2003 Ford Focus wagon! We found it missing from our driveway the other morning!! We were NOT in default, and current with all payments!!!
(the current with all payments!!! - I wonder if they were not current in the past...)
Could have been worse. I heard one case of a family that was 3 payments behind on their Escalade. The were getting threatening letters and calls from the bank, then they got up one morning to find two Escalades in the driveway.
I noticed this during the last short-term decrease in price a couple of months ago: There was a whole bunch of articles about how we had finally found relief to the high oil prices. This time however I noticed there was a lag between the start in decrease in prices and the start of articles about how it was all a bad dream. Also, there was a bit of wariness about the decreases this time around, the language used in the AP and Reuters reports is more soft and less sure.
Dr McCabe was a member of the US Geological Survey Assessment of global oil supplies, and says the figures show oil will last for many decades to come.
"We have produced about 35 per cent of the world's conventional oil, and we are producing about one per cent of that oil per year, so we have about 65 years left of producing at the current level of world production."
Huh- I don't understand that last statement whatsoever.
Actually, if you accept his numbers, his math is correct.
If we currently produce 73 mbpd crude, this is 26.645 Gb per year. If that is 1% of the total left, we have 2.67 trillion remaining. If we produce 26.645 Gb a year, that 2.67 trillion will last one hundred years. The math works if you suspend logic and geological/economic realities.
EDIT: I should have actually read what you wrote. What he said makes no sense.
It seems crazy to say that, if what has been presented on TOD is close to the truth. Who is Peter McCabe? He seems to be a real geologist if you can believe his resume'.
You sir are hopelessly out of date. It's the New Physics, which allows us, for example, to recover more than 100% of OOIP from a near zero matrix permeability producing formation. The New Physics is the key to the Huber/Lynch Field Concept; these are fields where discrete wells show production declines, but the total field production--the sum of the output of depleting discrete wells--increases forever.
Sure, laugh if you want Mr. Wiseguy, but you don't see the danger coming. Soon those exponentially increasing oil supplies will flood the planet with crude oil. As the planet increases in mass without a proportional increase in orbital velocity, we will begin a decaying orbit that will end with a spiral into the sun. THEN you won't be laughing anymore!
The sad thing is, even if this were proven to be true, it wouldn't slow the doomers down. Think of how much worse climate change could be with infinite amounts of oil to be burned.
Right. It's easy to get all that off the internet. But are there practicing geologists out there who know this man and his credentials on a more professional basis?
He seems to be spouting deceptive half-truths. What is going on, and what is in it for him?
imo, this geologist with a pedagree is just saying what the boss, el befuddleoso, wants to hear.
and an aquaintance who works for the govt tells me the same thing; career advancement depends on sucking up to the current regime. same as in private industry.
I decided to take it upon myself to email the main contact listed by the CSIRO website. Its text follows:
Dear Dr Ronalds,
One of your associates, Dr Peter McCabe has issued a statement recorded at this URL http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/200807/s2311956.htm claiming: "We have produced about 35 per cent of the world's conventional oil, and we are producing about one per cent of that oil per year, so we have about 65 years left of producing at the current level of world production." Yet, here http://www.csiro.au/org/CPROverview.html CSIRO clearly states oil "supply [is] expected to peak by 2010."
We at The Oildrum http://www.theoildrum.com have engaged in some discussion of Dr McCabe's assertion with some amusement and would like to know which assessment CSIRO supports: that of your website noted above or that of Dr McCabe?
This inquiry and any response you provide will be shared with The Oil Drum community and its thousands of readers.
I think that the 65-years thing makes perfect sense within its frame, and does not contradict the peak-in-10-years statement. McCabe said: if we've used 35% of the URR, and are extracting the remaining 65% at a rate of 1% per year, then it'll last 65 years if the rate could be maintained. That does not say that the rate CAN be maintained. It's just a way to quantitatively relate the reserves to production rate. And a common way to do it, too. It's just that here on TOD we dispute the URR (we're near 50% not 35%), and emphasize the fact that the real-world extraction rate will peak and decline. "It's not the size of the tank, it's the size of the tap".
You've distorted his quote, which I provided in full. He does not say "could." If fact, he infers "CAN." His words: "..., so we have about 65 years left of producing at the current level of world production [emphasis mine]."
This piece, from the "National e-Science Center" in Edinburgh explains:
What is a Theme?
A theme typically consists of a connected series of events, visitors and workshops. It has to address e-Science research in a deep and sustained effort to advance knowledge and capability in its area...
A theme is driven by a Theme Leader (TL) who is in effect a funded long-term visitor to eSI and is committed to the topic for its duration.
Translating into plain English, a "theme" is a means of maintaining the oil price by creating an artificial demand for large quantities of airline tickets. As if the typical university didn't already do a fine job of that...
And right there is another more familiar Wank-Word meme, status elevation by e-prefix. Even the dullest dolt should immediately see that "e-Science" must be immeasurably superior to the unprefixed kind. Never mind that it's hopelessly stuck in the ancient past, operating on the medieval-fair model of hugely expensive physical visits to contrived "events", what with the "e-web", "e-mail", "e-fax", and even the "tel-e-phone" remaining yet to be invented.
Huh. How about that. I was just thinking the same question, clicked back onto the oil drum and saw this question. Knocked my respect for CSIRO down another couple of pegs.
NeverLNG - I can understand that you are confused. You are the same guy who thinks that you are paying 15.3% of employment taxes on your self-employed income. In fact, on line 27 of the front page of your 2008 Form 1040 you get to deduct 1/2 of that 15.3% whether or not you itemize.
You help me to understand that poor people really are to blame for their own misfortune. Silly me.
Never, what on earth brought that on? I see nothing in any of the above comments that even remotely indicates anyone is trying to blame poor people for their own misfortune. Therefore I must conclude your statement is nothing but unnecessary hyperbole designed to try to say JB, or someone else advocates a position that they never advocated.
No one is trying to blame the poor for their own misfortune. Try to be a little honest in your responses and you will gain a lot more respect on this list.
Mr. Patterson -- My initial question got separated from the start of this exchange. In response to Leanan's post upthread:
With oil prices going down, suddenly there's a lot more "peak oil is a myth" stuff.
Welcome to "Short Attention Span Theater"...
I asked semi-seriously if she was long in SUV futures. Yes, I know SUV's are not traded on any commodity exchange -- but I wondered if she or anyone else expected the price of them (or their manufacturers' stock) to rise because of the brief downtick in oil prices and short public attention spans.
This brought on what I interpreted as a gratuitous attack by Mr. Bunt. My response was outraged -- he was referring to a series of posts from yesterday in which I was arguing that in my opinion, lower-income people paid a disproportionate percentage of their incomes in taxes, despite the sort of "information" that Mr. Rush Limbaugh offers up. Income taxes are not the only taxes we pay.
I will admit that it was not my most well-thought out response, but in fact, it was honest outrage.
I come to this forum for reliable information, not more of the same distortions that almost every other public and private medium provides. And while I am not really interested in increasing personal "respect", I do not want to give offense.
Apologies accepted Never. I came from dirt poor upbringings and as a result I am a Roosevelt Democrat and a tireless advocate for the poor and underprivileged. I too think the poor pay a disproportionate share of their income in taxes.
All Line 27 will do is help to get you into a lower tax bracket (lower the number on Line 43). When dealing with the tax table (page 63 on the 1040 Instructions), in my case 4K or so of a difference (as a result of the Line 27 deduction) only bought me about 1K in savings.
After all is said and done, you still have to add the 15.3% SE tax back on line 58. So while deducting 1/2 of the SE tax moves you to a lower brack and saves you a little, in the end you will still have to pay the full 15.3% SE tax.
Edit: Just to clarify, assume that multiplying my net profit (schedule C) times 15.3% is 10K. Deducting half of this 10K saves me ~1K from the tax table. This means instead of 10K, I pay 9K. People should not get the impression that if you are self-employed, you will save any significant amount of money (>=50%). In my case, it was closer to ~10% (or less). This is one of the realizations I came to after file SE for the first time and it was disappointing to say the least.
It seems the credits are where one can really rack up some big tax savings. Unfortunately, I did not have many to report.
With oil prices going down, suddenly there's a lot more "peak oil is a myth" stuff.
Welcome to "Short Attention Span Theater"...
I guess this just proves that those "Drill Here, Drill Now" bumper stickers really worked! We didn't even have to drill ANWR. We merely had to threaten to drill it, and oil prices came tumbling down.
Our nation owes a debt of gratitude to Sean Hannity. Without his bumper sticker campaign, we'd be facing a real energy crisis! So, we can all safely forget about Peak Oil until 2100. Think I'll rush out and buy a motorhome.
Now if those Chinese would stop drilling for oil in the Florida Keys (or is it downtown Miami - seems like it gets closer everyday), the USA could become another Saudi Arabia.
Where is the data on vacation cancellation? Not in my area in Colorado. Anyway, I guess congress should vote for drilling now to ensure vacation taking in ten years or so. Of course by then, however, since we will have done nothing on alternatives or implemented the Pickens plans, for example, no one will be taking vacations, except perhaps to their backyard.
'Democrats plan to adjourn work for a month-long vacation the first of August'...
I hope they don't forget to take the republicans with them. The More time those azz hats are out of DC the less damage they can do...
In more news about how a slow economy is altering career paths in America...
' Strippers jockey for pole position
By The Mogambo Guru
The inflation in the prices of stuff has now affected Americans to a material new degree for the first times in our lives; we are gambling less, we are driving less, we are eating in restaurants less, and we are (in general) suffering a falling standard of living because we can't buy as much stuff, and especially can't afford to buy as much pleasurable stuff, anymore, and believe me when I tell you that nobody is more grumpy about it than I.
One reason is made manifest when one notes that this includes, according to the AP, the Association of Club Executives, which is "a group that represents adult entertainment clubs" and whose spokesperson Angelina Spencer says she, "fields calls every day from strip-club owners feeling the pinch of a bad economy."
An adult-club owner named Joe Redner says that although business is down 25%, "the economy does have one upside for the business - it's bringing out more women willing to give pole dancing a try."...snip...
Above ground factors:
Chairman Tom Cole website@nrcc.org sent this:
(errr Americans are canceling vacations and that is 'inexcusable'?)
And someone doesn't like a state transportation czar...
http://gettingfrank.blogspot.com/
With leadership like this - who needs enemies?
I saw the Lady Minnesota Senator on Drill Drill Drill Magoo last night and she said "some Minnesotans aren't even going to their lakehouse this summer".....
I thought she was going to cry.
FF
Waaaah!!! Get used to it. However, my guess is that most of those who are fortunate enough to own an extra house, can afford these gas prices. By next summer, perhaps, they will have done something smart by buying an economy car.
The 'fortunates' are not paying their credit card bills, I doubt they will be buying more houses. In fact, I gazed into my crystal ball and asked that question...'will fat cats buy more houses'...My smart azz crystal ball replied...'out houses'. If I could get my nine bucks back from that gypsy I would return the ball...alas, they broke camp long ago.
'Today it's being engraved on the back of American Express charge plates and printed on outgoing cardmember statements informing hapless business owners and vacationers from Traverse City, MI to Ocala, FL that their credit lines have been slashed, their markers called in.
According to Chenault (CEO), cardmember spending, particularly among consumers, slowed sharply during the latter part of the quarter. "Credit indicators, as we signaled a few weeks ago, deteriorated beyond our expectations," Chenault glumly intoned, adding that "by almost any measure" the U.S. economy and business environment are much weaker than the assumptions made back in January and as recently as early June.
The awful kicker, especially for the luxury box set, is that the fallout was evident across all consumer segments. "Even our longer-term superprime Cardmembers," Chenault said. Consequently,given the environment, "we'll continue to scale back some card acquisition efforts and reduce credit lines selectively in the U.S.," he added.'
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-AXP-UPS-TXN-bac-WB/index/a/1814...
And a slightly increadable tale
http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=128361
(the current with all payments!!! - I wonder if they were not current in the past...)
Could have been worse. I heard one case of a family that was 3 payments behind on their Escalade. The were getting threatening letters and calls from the bank, then they got up one morning to find two Escalades in the driveway.
LOL !!
With oil prices going down, suddenly there's a lot more "peak oil is a myth" stuff.
Welcome to "Short Attention Span Theater"...
I noticed this during the last short-term decrease in price a couple of months ago: There was a whole bunch of articles about how we had finally found relief to the high oil prices. This time however I noticed there was a lag between the start in decrease in prices and the start of articles about how it was all a bad dream. Also, there was a bit of wariness about the decreases this time around, the language used in the AP and Reuters reports is more soft and less sure.
"Never underestimate the power of denial" (From "American Beauty")
Huh- I don't understand that last statement whatsoever.
FF
Actually, if you accept his numbers, his math is correct.
If we currently produce 73 mbpd crude, this is 26.645 Gb per year. If that is 1% of the total left, we have 2.67 trillion remaining. If we produce 26.645 Gb a year, that 2.67 trillion will last one hundred years. The math works if you suspend logic and geological/economic realities.
EDIT: I should have actually read what you wrote. What he said makes no sense.
It seems crazy to say that, if what has been presented on TOD is close to the truth. Who is Peter McCabe? He seems to be a real geologist if you can believe his resume'.
You sir are hopelessly out of date. It's the New Physics, which allows us, for example, to recover more than 100% of OOIP from a near zero matrix permeability producing formation. The New Physics is the key to the Huber/Lynch Field Concept; these are fields where discrete wells show production declines, but the total field production--the sum of the output of depleting discrete wells--increases forever.
Sure, laugh if you want Mr. Wiseguy, but you don't see the danger coming. Soon those exponentially increasing oil supplies will flood the planet with crude oil. As the planet increases in mass without a proportional increase in orbital velocity, we will begin a decaying orbit that will end with a spiral into the sun. THEN you won't be laughing anymore!
But think about the vastly improved solar energy that would become available! Not to mention that long-sought holy grail of energy, fusion!
The sad thing is, even if this were proven to be true, it wouldn't slow the doomers down. Think of how much worse climate change could be with infinite amounts of oil to be burned.
Wow!! Talk about knee-jerk rating reactions!
MY first post, so I am going to keep it factual.
Dr. McCabe is ( from this web site: http://www.csiro.au/people/Peter.McCabe.html )
From the theme website at:
http://www.csiro.au/org/CPROverview.html
Right. It's easy to get all that off the internet. But are there practicing geologists out there who know this man and his credentials on a more professional basis?
He seems to be spouting deceptive half-truths. What is going on, and what is in it for him?
imo, this geologist with a pedagree is just saying what the boss, el befuddleoso, wants to hear.
and an aquaintance who works for the govt tells me the same thing; career advancement depends on sucking up to the current regime. same as in private industry.
I decided to take it upon myself to email the main contact listed by the CSIRO website. Its text follows:
As noted, I will post any response I get.
I think that the 65-years thing makes perfect sense within its frame, and does not contradict the peak-in-10-years statement. McCabe said: if we've used 35% of the URR, and are extracting the remaining 65% at a rate of 1% per year, then it'll last 65 years if the rate could be maintained. That does not say that the rate CAN be maintained. It's just a way to quantitatively relate the reserves to production rate. And a common way to do it, too. It's just that here on TOD we dispute the URR (we're near 50% not 35%), and emphasize the fact that the real-world extraction rate will peak and decline. "It's not the size of the tank, it's the size of the tap".
You've distorted his quote, which I provided in full. He does not say "could." If fact, he infers "CAN." His words: "..., so we have about 65 years left of producing at the current level of world production [emphasis mine]."
What on God's Green Earth is:
'A Theme - Leader' ?
I thought I had a good grasp of Management -Psychobabble and Wank-Word Bingo, but this is new to me.
This piece, from the "National e-Science Center" in Edinburgh explains:
Translating into plain English, a "theme" is a means of maintaining the oil price by creating an artificial demand for large quantities of airline tickets. As if the typical university didn't already do a fine job of that...
And right there is another more familiar Wank-Word meme, status elevation by e-prefix. Even the dullest dolt should immediately see that "e-Science" must be immeasurably superior to the unprefixed kind. Never mind that it's hopelessly stuck in the ancient past, operating on the medieval-fair model of hugely expensive physical visits to contrived "events", what with the "e-web", "e-mail", "e-fax", and even the "tel-e-phone" remaining yet to be invented.
Huh. How about that. I was just thinking the same question, clicked back onto the oil drum and saw this question. Knocked my respect for CSIRO down another couple of pegs.
"What on God's Green Earth is:
'A Theme - Leader' ?"
a team leader with a lisp ?
This epitomizes the media we now have and we asked for it.
Americans demand an excuse for denial more than they demand the truth.
Plausible-denial-ability
Leanan--Are you long in SUV futures?
NeverLNG - I can understand that you are confused. You are the same guy who thinks that you are paying 15.3% of employment taxes on your self-employed income. In fact, on line 27 of the front page of your 2008 Form 1040 you get to deduct 1/2 of that 15.3% whether or not you itemize.
Thanks for the encouragement, jb. I feel the fog clearing now.
You help me to understand that poor people really are to blame for their own misfortune. Silly me.
Jbunt is a fine source of magical thinking. He believes that people can be re-incarnated as an example of his magical, wishful thinking.
Never, what on earth brought that on? I see nothing in any of the above comments that even remotely indicates anyone is trying to blame poor people for their own misfortune. Therefore I must conclude your statement is nothing but unnecessary hyperbole designed to try to say JB, or someone else advocates a position that they never advocated.
No one is trying to blame the poor for their own misfortune. Try to be a little honest in your responses and you will gain a lot more respect on this list.
Ron Patterson
Mr. Patterson -- My initial question got separated from the start of this exchange. In response to Leanan's post upthread:
I asked semi-seriously if she was long in SUV futures. Yes, I know SUV's are not traded on any commodity exchange -- but I wondered if she or anyone else expected the price of them (or their manufacturers' stock) to rise because of the brief downtick in oil prices and short public attention spans.
This brought on what I interpreted as a gratuitous attack by Mr. Bunt. My response was outraged -- he was referring to a series of posts from yesterday in which I was arguing that in my opinion, lower-income people paid a disproportionate percentage of their incomes in taxes, despite the sort of "information" that Mr. Rush Limbaugh offers up. Income taxes are not the only taxes we pay.
I will admit that it was not my most well-thought out response, but in fact, it was honest outrage.
I come to this forum for reliable information, not more of the same distortions that almost every other public and private medium provides. And while I am not really interested in increasing personal "respect", I do not want to give offense.
My apologies.
Apologies accepted Never. I came from dirt poor upbringings and as a result I am a Roosevelt Democrat and a tireless advocate for the poor and underprivileged. I too think the poor pay a disproportionate share of their income in taxes.
Ron Patterson
Very gracious reply Never.
However, GM stock has almost doubled from its low a week ago riding the seesaw on the oil price dip.
Wait. Now I am confused.
All Line 27 will do is help to get you into a lower tax bracket (lower the number on Line 43). When dealing with the tax table (page 63 on the 1040 Instructions), in my case 4K or so of a difference (as a result of the Line 27 deduction) only bought me about 1K in savings.
After all is said and done, you still have to add the 15.3% SE tax back on line 58. So while deducting 1/2 of the SE tax moves you to a lower brack and saves you a little, in the end you will still have to pay the full 15.3% SE tax.
Edit: Just to clarify, assume that multiplying my net profit (schedule C) times 15.3% is 10K. Deducting half of this 10K saves me ~1K from the tax table. This means instead of 10K, I pay 9K. People should not get the impression that if you are self-employed, you will save any significant amount of money (>=50%). In my case, it was closer to ~10% (or less). This is one of the realizations I came to after file SE for the first time and it was disappointing to say the least.
It seems the credits are where one can really rack up some big tax savings. Unfortunately, I did not have many to report.
I guess this just proves that those "Drill Here, Drill Now" bumper stickers really worked! We didn't even have to drill ANWR. We merely had to threaten to drill it, and oil prices came tumbling down.
Our nation owes a debt of gratitude to Sean Hannity. Without his bumper sticker campaign, we'd be facing a real energy crisis! So, we can all safely forget about Peak Oil until 2100. Think I'll rush out and buy a motorhome.
Now if those Chinese would stop drilling for oil in the Florida Keys (or is it downtown Miami - seems like it gets closer everyday), the USA could become another Saudi Arabia.
Where is the data on vacation cancellation? Not in my area in Colorado. Anyway, I guess congress should vote for drilling now to ensure vacation taking in ten years or so. Of course by then, however, since we will have done nothing on alternatives or implemented the Pickens plans, for example, no one will be taking vacations, except perhaps to their backyard.
'Democrats plan to adjourn work for a month-long vacation the first of August'...
I hope they don't forget to take the republicans with them. The More time those azz hats are out of DC the less damage they can do...
In more news about how a slow economy is altering career paths in America...
' Strippers jockey for pole position
By The Mogambo Guru
The inflation in the prices of stuff has now affected Americans to a material new degree for the first times in our lives; we are gambling less, we are driving less, we are eating in restaurants less, and we are (in general) suffering a falling standard of living because we can't buy as much stuff, and especially can't afford to buy as much pleasurable stuff, anymore, and believe me when I tell you that nobody is more grumpy about it than I.
One reason is made manifest when one notes that this includes, according to the AP, the Association of Club Executives, which is "a group that represents adult entertainment clubs" and whose spokesperson Angelina Spencer says she, "fields calls every day from strip-club owners feeling the pinch of a bad economy."
An adult-club owner named Joe Redner says that although business is down 25%, "the economy does have one upside for the business - it's bringing out more women willing to give pole dancing a try."...snip...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JG24Dj01.html
People are going to start trying to stuff quarters in the G-strings instead of dollar bills.
Wow, a big spender using quarters. The 'girls' around here are used to nickles so if you come to town don't spoil them.
Some of these girls are a marvel. I saw one that was