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This post hits the root cause nail right on the head.
Negative human influences on the biosphere are increased by:
1) Higher and higher levels of per-capita consumption
2) Increasing numbers of people
Here is where I venture into the tar pit...what is the root cause of overpopulation?
Religion.
Two examples that have been woefully mis-used by greedy and oftentimes less intelligent people:
Genesis, Chapter 9, Verse 7:
"And as for you, be fruitful and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth and multiply in it."
Genesis 1:28
"And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and
multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion
over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every
living thing that moveth upon the earth."
Lest you think I am picking on religious belief and people who hold these beliefs for the fun of it, this is not so. All my life I have been surrounded by folks who flippantly use these and similar religious doctrine snippets to justify their high on the hog, head in the sand existence. And do not forget the grim number of people who tie this illogical bow up at the other end of the rainbow by pointing to the Armageddon mythology as reason that we don't have to worry about these silly earthly matters anyway. It is a simplistic continuum of thought: God commanded us to be fruitful and multiply and have dominion over all creatures and subdue the Earth: rinse, spit, repeat, then at some magic time the four horsemen will ride in to increase everyones' misery until the messiah returns, slays the evil ones, and everyone who believes will enjoy the Kingdom of God on Earth for 1000 years (what happens after that, everyone packs up and goes to heaven?) And don't forget, humanity's troubles began when a woman dared to try to gain knowledge about the world....thus the current mindset that science and scientists and anyone who engages in structured, logical thought is not to be trusted at the least, and agents of the devil and unpatriotic enemies of the state at the worst.
This kind of thinking permeates American society. Even when religious people awaken and advocate some environmentalism, the fundamental doctrines above sabotage any real improvement. Witness the Pope telling all the Catholics that pollution is bad, war is bad, rich folks not sharing with the poor is bad, but his institution digs in its heals on the issue of birth control...though shalt not ever, ever use a condom or birth control pills or IUDs or any contraception. With this stance, all the other nice thoughts about the environment aren't worth a warm bucket of spit. Not just Catholics, but Mormons, Baptists, Islam, etc...even look at all the ancient carvings of fertility symbols and fertility gods.
Our imperative to breed profusely served us well from an evolutionary standpoint, where for millions of years (best estimate currently is ~2.5 million years), humans and their ancestral lineage lived short lives and needed to breed often to keep the species going. Since the advent of modern medicine and agriculture and high-density, easy-to exploit energy to support these, mortality has deceased, life expectancies have increases, but the urger to procreate at previously appropriate rates is difficult to change.
NO one can even begin to bring this 800-pound gorilla in open conversation..."what do you have against children, you were one yourself!"..."Would you wish you were never born?"..."If we have less people then we will miss out on God knows how many Einsteins, etc. to enrich our society and solve our problems"..."Global warming is a conspiracy by enviro-nazis who can't get real jobs and who want to stick it to rich people"..."There's global warming on Mars, Jupiter, Saturn!"..."we have enough oil for Millions of years, all this talk is a bunch of hot air"...
The Statements in quites above were all said out loud by officers of the US Military, mostly people with Master Degrees who operate highly sophisticated equipment for a living...many of the potential bringers of Armageddon are fervent believers in Armageddon. I'm afraid most of you here have only a very dim idea of the military-industrial-political-religious complex that has been driving the boat of world affairs. All the environmentalists and Peak-Oil Aware types in the world are regarded much as flies to be shooed away or swatted flat if need be.
You forgot "why don't you kill yourself," I love that one.
What we cannot talk about is the one thing that's going to ensure our species demise.
BTW, did Erhlich mention a "hydrogen economy" as something viable, or did I hear that one wrong?
Well said moonwatcher.
Thanks for having the cajones (I speak metaphorically so it still stands even if you were to be a wahini) to talk truth.
This truth has reached its zenith with this current administration where "Ideology and theology trump science".
We are so screwed up.
Moonwatcher, I like the religion aspect of your point. Very interesting.
But your concluding comment about the "environmentalists and Peak-Oil Aware types" underestimates that they are growing in numbers, and rather than be shooed away, can closely resemble the Lilliputians when the time is right. Wishful thinking? Time will tell.
The causes of the population explosion are simply man getting better at extracting resources, or producing /growing them (eg. agri) and creating what is called wealth, added value, etc.
Back in the Paleolithic, or more recent Sumeria, or in some ‘primitive’ more or less contemp. communities, when there was not enough to feed extra children, or keep alive old ppl who contributed little or nothing, these died in various ways. Cultures differ. Anyone can come up with examples, folklore.
Industrialization, which btw was incredibly slow, much slower than most suppose, did eventually hike household income, in Britain first of all...then, moving along, ww2 or post brought us to the oil age and its fantastic bonanza. In life-times that we can see, the Green revolution, that is the mechanization of agriculture (fossil fuels, fertilizers, infrastructure for watering, so called modern seeds and so on), the giving up of the slaves, rationalization and best practices, transport -rail, road and river- an explosion of trade provided, world wide, more edible stuff, even a glut at some point.
People finally ate to their hunger - yes they did, despite serious sad pockets of famine, as a % of world food they were small, of course deplorable for all that.
And so we all multiplied, had children. Many.
Children, in much of the world, represent comfort and future wealth. They are a stake for the future, if they can be kept alive beyond 6-10, as they can then work, contribute, extract more from the environment, physical or financial (jobs of one kind or another, agri, gov, finance, war...all in in the greater, expanding world) - in any case conditions were so much better, full speed ahead.
Add in simply that women who eat sparingly but enough for life, have minimal health care, and no contraception, low status, will produce many children. A stab for the future (EROEI), pride and joy, status in the community, love, a tribe to gather round.
The demographics of our population problem are such that even if governments imposed a one child per family limit our global population for the next three decades would continue to grow because the majority of humans on the planet are entering or will enter their reproductive child bearing years up ahead. So this tabu topic of population actually has to address the question of How do we increase the death rate to really be affective let alone how do we control our birth rate. In the same way that mitigating peak oil required actions 35 years ago so does the subject of population control because today we find ourselves in the situation that any real affective solutions are morally reprehensible.
"Here is where I venture into the tar pit...what is the root cause of overpopulation?
Religion."
Sorry, but that tune doesn't play very well in China or Italy now a days. (Or France or most any other country in the EU.) Maybe you should do a bit of research before you make an outlandish statement like that. In many other regions and cultures, especially the third world, most people have many children for purely economic/practical reasons not because religious beliefs saying something to the effect of, "Go forth and multiply."
.
Religion is just a subset of all forms of tribalism. Humans are a pack animal. Religions and nation-states are social structures that expand the size of the pack, but the tribal instinct remains the same. If it wasn't religion, people would be fighting over something else.
This relates to population growth because in any kind of power struggle, whether it's an election or a civil war, population is everything. The lone exception is industrialized warfare. Therefore, birthrate and surplus food all translate to more power. You can augment birthrate with an evangelical ideology to convert non-believers. I'd lump Christianity, Islam and Consumerism into that category.
The root cause of our energy problem is excess consumption (greed) by the richest nations that have already passed through their demographic transitions. Driving a Hummer 15,000 miles a year and eating 3,000 calories a day of food (mostly from a cow) that has been transported more than a thousand miles to get to the table is so wasteful compared to the average person in the developing world that it defies imagination. I do not know too many religions who espouse the consumption of massive amounts of everything (whether it is useful or not). I think if you take a look through the New Testament you will see that Jesus spent more time preaching against Money (and its corrupting effects, i.e. greed) than any other subject. One phrase comes to mind: "It is more difficult for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God than for a camel to go through the eye of a needle.". I seriously doubt that you would find a religion anywhere (certainly not Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, etc.) that would truly espouse the kind of greed and waste and energy consumption that is such a hallmark of western society today. There are PLENTY of resources on the planet for us if we were not so greedy. "Enough for our NEEDS, but not for our GREED."
I didn't say religions espouse consumption. I said some successful religions espouse expansion of membership, whether through conversion or reproduction. True Christianity is a moderating check on consumption, but it's been corrupted by philosophies like Prosperity Theology. That's definitely not a mainstream Christian interpretation, but it does explain the behavior of certain politically connected preachers. In the US, I'd say Consumerism has replaced Christianity as the dominant belief.
As for carrying capacity, sure there's enough resources in the world for 6.5 billion people at a very modest level of consumption, but with population growth we'll hit the wall soon enough. Who's to decide what's a reasonable standard of living for our needs and what the world population should be? 1 billion Americans? 2 billion Europeans? 8 billion Haitians?
Consumerism is indeed the dominant philosophy in most industrialized nations. I wouldn't say it is a religion because it does not fit the profile. And it has to stop. Now. But commercials have so ingrained the ideology to our brains that it will be very hard to quit.
I believe that humanities outstretched fingers are already hitting the wall.
In Eastern Africa there are about 13 million people in need of food badly. There are food riots all over the world.
Expect to see a lot more of this in the future.
The bad news is people will die.
The good news is population will go down.
iwylie,
I think you hit the right issue. Religion is just one of those human institutions that are caught by human faults. It doesn't matter that religion says "tho shall not kill", because people will find a justification to kill other people for not believing in such benevolent teachings. Science suffers from the exact same problem, because it doesn't matter that theories are supposed to be evaluated by data, many scientists endorse or abject to theories by their level of social/group acceptance. And the average Joe takes what he thinks to be scientific knowledge with the same rigid passion as any religion.
People jumped at me with a zealot intensity when I said this in another forum. One of them, as an example, claimed that "gravity makes a hammer fall at the same speed as a feather if you throw them from a high building, and anyone could make such experience. Therefore people did not accept blindlessly scientific facts as they where religious laws because they can test it"! Forget the knowledge of air resistance or limits of models to describe physical phenomenons, just notice the plain contradiction to common sense!
The root of any system is the human factor that drives it.
Allegedly, communism was supposed to be driven by "the common good", and that obviously did not work well (actually it did not work at all, because most of these societies became totalitarian regimes driven by the "power" factor).
A capitalist system is driven by "greed", and unfortunately that proved to be a successful system. And in the most curious twist of faith, a former communist country is the one responsible for the ultimate capitalist concept: products so cheap that you buy compulsively, and so bad that you need to replaced them almost immediately. It is a bad commercial practice to make products that last! Never noticed how old stuff lasted longer?
So, the central issue is human development, not the one measured by the luxury items, but a development of awareness. The awareness of consequences of our actions, and the knowledge to predict and understand them.
How about Free Market Capitalism with its fundamentalist dogma of everlasting Economic Growth where it is possible for all the faithful to acheive the lofty goals of individual wealth?
Just to agree with you, from a moderate religious viewpoint, in Genesis it says:
"Be fruitful and multiply, fill the earth and subdue it"
Notice the word 'fill'. Not 'overfill'. This planet is full, past full. We have completed our task, now we should stop before we go too far.
You ask: "...what is the root cause of overpopulation? Religion."
I could not disagree more. You might as well blame "culture" itself, for that is all religion is.
You'd just as well ask: "What is the root cause of religion?" To which the answer is "biology, sex, fecundity, and death"
In fact my question is a much better question, I would humbly suggest.
Because people are animals they have evolved to reproduce efficiently, to derive pleasure from sex, to derive pleasure from children, and all to avoid the full consequences of personal mortality.
Religion and all culture helps organize all that mad shtuping and birthing and dieing so that humble apes can experience some modicum of meaning as the are born, blossom, impregnate, become impregnated, give birth, nurture a few young and die. Our brains force us to try to make sense of this mad dash from womb to grave.
The very idea that "thinking" affects behavior is a very religious idea, and one that I would question. It is behavior that leads to thoughts... to religious ideas and to religions. And the things that lead to behaviors are the material conditions of life... the availability of resources, food, land, etc.
Religions do nothing but put a belated stamp on what we are and what we do. If you would change Man, change the circumstances of his life and his religion will follow rapidly behind. Religion is but the tail on the dog of the human condition.
Witness for example the disappearance of Christianity in Europe. It can happen in a moment, as the world changes. In contrast, fighting religion directly, as if this religious idea or that matters for people's behavior seems extremely foolish. Religions express underlying realities... they rarely determine them.
Basic error in logic demonstrated by very low birthrates in more developed OECD countries, essentially inversely proportional to subscription to religion (eg. higher in USA than in Britain, Netherlands etc.)
Essentially, the key factor to reducing birth rates is to improve economic conditions, very little else aside from genocide had proven effective. Catholic laedership's and US fundamentalist christain's stupid clinging to an ancient "moral" tenant, eg. no birth control, is merely salt into the world's wounds. Reprehensible, and a negative factor, but of little significance alongside economic conditions.
Oh come on, there is no error in logic involved. My claim in no way contradicts the fact that economic conditions lead people to make choices that may run counter to their reproductive success and reproductive fitness.
The Catholic church provides a justification for people's preferences... it does not create them. As you say, when economic conditions change (Italy!) the Catholic church's admonitions are powerless.
Economics and material circumstances matter.... religion takes forms that suit people's preferences.
I respectfully disagree that the root cause of overpopulation is religion.
Look at the forces that are driving overpopulation today: industrialism, consumerism, advertising, factory farms, industrial agriculture, destruction of communities, etc. These are all secular forces which transcend religions; they were and are as common in the atheistic Soviet Union and modern China as in the United States and Europe. Sure, Genesis 1:28 may have had a marginal effect, but it was written when population was perhaps 1% of current population.
Religion today has been co-opted by secularism. In fact, Christianity was co-opted by secular society after Constantine and the council of Nicaea. Periodically there have been protests against this: the Desert Fathers, the Anabaptists, and others who all protested against the secularism of the church in different ways. Similar protests have erupted in other religions. So far they have failed. Periodically also people revolt against secularism in other ways and you have fundamentalism of all stripes. But most fundamentalists have rejected secularism in irregular and uninformed ways (rejecting birth control, but accepting war and consumerism).
So yes, religion can be held responsible for overpopulation. But religion is not the root cause. Secular forces are the root cause, with religion an accessory after the fact. If religion returned to its roots, say to a Jesus who rejected war and materialism and said "blessed are the poor" and "love your enemies," it could be a force against the powers driving overpopulation and destruction of the earth.
Keith
Keith I think you're correct. Religion is at best a smokescreen or at worst a handmaiden for global corporatism rather than a player.
Several years ago at the behest of a close friend I attended a large Christain Church service. I didn't detect much religious expression there however. It was more like a large burlesque production and in between acts we would sing hopelessly trite, repetitive lyrics from one of three large monitors above the stage. The big sermon was about "proper tithing". The pastor related the touching story of the "man who discovered that the more he tithed the wealthier he became". There was no mention about "the meek shall inherit the earth"?
One look at the parking lot crammed with large late model SUV's should proclaim that this is the Chruch Of Conspicous Consumption. What pragmatic Pastor, with his eye on the bottom line, would extort his parishioners to consider birth-contol or criticize consumption?
On the other hand, Les Knight, the founder (pastor) of VHEMT - the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement - is religious in his soft-spoken dedication to the principle that humans might be gently persuaded to halt reproduction on a fast dying planet. Although there is no place of meeting and no dues other than voluntary contributions there is a well-developed web-site: http://www.vhemt.org/ VHEMT's slogan "Live Long And Die Out"
For the truly misanthropic there is the Church of Euthanasia, with it's four pillars of abortion,suicide,sodomy and cannibalism. Their web-site has a guide for "butchering a human carcass" that includes a recipe for barbeque sauce.
Can the notion that a net increase of 350,000 additional people on the planet every day become a main-stream issue? Maybe and perhaps not as far into the future as people might think. With over a billion visits The Oil Drum has become almost main-stream and the fact that it is openly discussing over-population as an issue should be an encouraging sign. Will it take the spectre of Peak Oil and Climate Change wreaking disasters far and wide to wake up the general population?
Probably! But in the meantime I think there are a lot of people doing what they can to prepare for that day.
Joe
The best religion is "The Church of Stop Shopping". http://www.revbilly.com/
Change a lu jah, brothers and sisters!!!
The Church of Stop Shopping is so cool! I saw the DVD that they put out, "What Would Jesus Buy?" The irony is that Rev. Billy does it sort of as a satire on many modern megachurches, with the exorcisms of Walmart and such, but he's probably closer to what Jesus would say than the churches he's satirizing. He's probably closer even than he himself realizes.
It is hard for a politician to say "hey, your way of life is excessive and it has to stop." Even if they have something of a following, you just can't build a political career on that. But a preacher can say it and get away with it. "Cassandra" is a role that is a permitted category for preachers in modern society, albeit one usually isolated from the mainstream. For some famous examples from the ancient world, see Isaiah, Jeremiah, John the Baptist, et. al. So I'd say let's get down to your local Zen center, Hindu Temple, synagogue, or liberal Christian church and start talking to them about peak oil and the "end of the age" -- the age of industrialism, that is. Though it's not for me, some evangelical churches are getting the message too (where's Jim Wallis?).
Keith
You need to read Dawkins: "The Selfish Gene" to understand why people are unwilling to control population. It's built into the way all life works. It expands to fill it's niche. We are simply better at expanding our niche.
Tell you what. Just make sure you don't have kids.
What a bunch of bollocks. Religion is the cause of explosive demography? What the hell is wrong with your head, man?
1. That rule of "go forth and multiply" isn't even necessary to get to your point. Natural Selection does that far better than you: those who wish to go forth and multiply are exactly the ones who will make sure their own genes will survive.
What I mean is that if all intelligent people stopped having babies, then this wouldn't become a sustained subpopulated world. It would become an idiocracy, get it? It's not a matter of choice, it's a matter of survival of the most fertile. Completely pragmatic in nature.
2. If religion was the cause of explosive demography, then why didn't we have such an explosion in the middle ages, wise guy? Why did it happen precisely in the most open atheistic of times so far, the nineteenth and the twentieth century? (and no, I am not theistic, I'm just stating a fact) Your theory does not hold.
In fact, all your rambling is a call to emotion, without any substantive facts whatsoever backing them up. It's also a call to a decayed society, one that hates children, for it sees them as a threat. I know well where you think you are going in there, but you are appallingly wrong.
Just so you know.
No antibiotics.
Exactly.
So it had nothing to do with religion.
It had to do with the industrial revolution coming while a too-many-births mentality (sorely needed for the survival of people until then), creating a glut (to use a common word in here) of people.
This glut ended some decades ago in the civilized countries where industrial revolution is older.
It has nothing to do with religion.
(and again, no, I'm no advocate of religious thinking, at all)
I might have added "and sanitation." Religion (not all, not all forms) may provide an excuse, it is not the cause of overpopulation. It doesn't provide a very good path for overshoot, though.
"If we have less people then we will miss out on God knows how many Einsteins, etc. to enrich our society and solve our problems"
But then again, how many Hitlers, Jim Joneses, or John Wayne Gacys do we not get because these people weren't born?