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328 comments on DrumBeat: July 28, 2008
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328 comments on DrumBeat: July 28, 2008
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Damn Chinese. Who the hell do they think they are, burning up our gasoline?
I'm sure that someone has already started buying up cheap used SUV's in the US and shipping them overseas. BTW, an articles in the NYT about fuel subsidies:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html?hp
Of course, relative to Europe, one could argue that the US is, in effect, subsidizing energy prices--which is a key reason that our total energy consumption per capita is twice what it is in Europe.
The article also had this bombshell in it:
Subsidies are a remarkably efficient way to boost consumption, but what is interesting is how oblivious, until recently at least, most of the media have been to rising consumption in exporting countries. A What If scenario for Saudi Arabia, assuming a flat production rate of 11 mbpd and extrapolating their consumption at +5.7%/year (the latest EIA data show a +7.2%/year rate of increase):
However, once an exporting region starts showing lower production, recent case histories suggest that the rate of change in consumption only changes the slope of the net export decline rate, e.g., the UK went to zero net oil exports in seven years with a minimal increase in consumption of +0.2%/year.
...The whole Middle East will 'go nuclear' b4 those lines cross -the only variable being the speed of the energy released...
Nick.
To get a sense of the historical rise in consumption in developing nations you should review the graphs of the Energy Export Databrowser. Those producing nations that subsidize oil consumption have shown dramatic increases in consumption over the last couple of decades. (The Export Land Model in action!) Check out the plots for:
Here is Indonesia:
Then take a look at the producing nations of the Persian Gulf. The oil consumption is up but their consumption of natural gas is WAAYYY!!! up.
The case of the UK is an object lesson in how quickly resources that are fully developed can decline. If you look at the graph for UK Oil Exports/Imports in units of constant dollars, you'll see that they made a grave mistake in exporting largely during periods of cheap oil and returning to imports during the current period of high prices. (A mistake reminiscent of the Bank of England's selling off the national gold reserve during (and contributing to) the lowest inflation-adjusted prices of the century.)
I don't know if you saw this a couple of days ago, but here is a link to a presentation I gave at Sandia Labs on our net export work:
http://mediasiteson.sandia.gov/Mediasite/Viewer/?peid=db3a600e-e93f-43ae...
Nice presentation and thanks for passing it on. Are all of the forecasts based on HL analysis?
Yes. Khebab basically did a low case, middle case and high case for production declines, using HL, and he used a Monte Carlo analysis for future consumption, again generating low case, middle case and high case scenarios. He then generated three predicted net export curves showing worst case, middle case and best case for net oil exports approaching zero.
If we sum the top five together, volumetrically they are currently on track to approach zero net oil exports around 2031, which is the middle case scenario in the quantitative analysis.
WARNING!!!!!
If you use Firefox 3 do not under any circumstance download the recommended plugin as it is not compatible (it was designed for firefox 2) and will almost certainly break things. I'm still manually undoing the mess it made. At one point I had to pull the plug on the machine as an infinite number of windows tried to pop up with unintelligble (to anyone other than the programmer) error messages.
Answer Yes to continue without plugin with Firefox 3(there actually is a plugin handling this already). That should work and you should see the synchronised slideshow in another frame. If not use IE :-(
Thanks for the info. There have been some scattered reports of problems.
It seems to be the old windows "dll hell" problem where you end up with multiple different versions of code libraries installed in multiple locations depending on what you have previously installed. Firefox 3 only came out recently and not every website/plugin/addon is fully compatible yet - some reviewers have suggested Mozilla jumped the gun with this release (I've had far more annoyances with this upgrade than any previous Firefox upgrade).
[Edit: On a technical note I think it's the detection/installation program that makes a mistake. WMP11/Firefox 3 users should already have a suitable np-mswmp.dll - your mileage may vary :-)]
I'm running Firefox 3 and did not download the plug-in. I can see the slides, but see no video. Is there a way this can be saved in some other format? Much appreciated, if possible to convert it to another format.
If you're not using Windows Media Player 11 then upgrading to that should work.
Howver here's a direct URL for the video stream which should work for everyone. This should fire up in external windows media player no matter what you are running. Should work on other operating systems too if you are having problems.
http://tinyurl.com/5uum5e
I had to use tinyurl because the posting software won't let me post the full url as a link (it converts mms to http which doesn't work)
The actual address of the video to which the tinyurl points is
mms://as04snlnto.son.sandia.gov/mediasite/44148de6-159c-468f-b4ac-0b2490591d15.wmv?eventid=1413e0cc-9118-d1fb-d1f8-829bbd7759b7mediaid=e37eb9f2-13d3-4c45-960a-e7392073bca6
with the wrapping removed for the technically inclined.
That rating system doesn't seem to be working for me, but thanks again. It's wonderful.
Here's a zip file (only 2.2MB) http://www.savefile.com/files/1695621 containg all the slides plus their starting time index (in file texas.txt). The video is 350MB long as provided so I haven't uploaded that but you can download it directly with (for example) mplayer using the command:
C:\mp2\mplayer>mplayer -dumpstream -dumpfile texas.wmv mms://as04snlnto.son.sandia.gov/mediasite/44148de6-159c-468f-b4ac-0b2490591d15.wmv
Using this combination you'll get the video and slides stored locally should anyone wish.
Also I think it may be the case that if you are running a version of Windows Media Player prior to V11 with Firefox 3 it may be ok to download a recommended plugin - however I haven't tested this as I'm running WMP V11.
Jeffrey-
That was excellent.
FF
It took me a while to steel myself to actually watch the presentation, but I do think it was the best one I have given. It might have had something to do with the audience. It was a group--at Sandia Labs with video links to two other national labs--that I didn't want to disappoint in any way (I've also had lots of practice lately).
Excellent job. I've read all of these arguments from you before in snippets here and there, but to see the entire presentation is quite impressive. There were good questions from the audience also.
One fellow asked about the effect of acts of terrorism on export rates. I think Mr. Vail's observations are that as energy prices become more expensive, the payback for energy saboteurs increases. Increased attacks on energy sources further drive higher prices leading to an even greater ROI for sabotage. This feedback loop is one that I'm afraid will play a greater role in driving energy costs.
About the tax increase on energy and reduction of the payroll tax, Gore has the killer bumper sticker line: "We should be taxed for what we burn, not for what we earn."
Thanks very much for making it available; I sent it to a number of people who otherwise might not have seen it (that don't read here).
I'm running XP, Firefox 3, didn't have a message to download and it seemed to work fine. I really liked the video and the slides working together in tandem vs. the usual power point without the full explanations that the presentation offers.
I'll second that (or third or fourth it). Great to see you getting the message out.
Yes, Great Presentation-->Big Kudos to Westexas!!!
Go,go,go Alan Drake! We really need to start building RRs & TODevelopment ASAP!
Good Morning from Melbourne, Australia.
It WAS 1am. Wife had been snoring, dog growling at a possum outside. Earplugs not working. Brain refuses to shutdown. Now it's 2.30am. Wife's quiet, dog's asleep... But why on earth did I start your one hour presentation?!
I guess the main question I keep asking myself, if your models are to be believed (as a PO newbie with an average IQ, I struggle a bit with the black dots more or less trending up, followed by a nose-diving blue line - I'm sure many of my fellow Average Joes and Janes would also), is how long do we have?* I read here often that many Todsters believe BAU will begin a rapid shutdown in less than a decade. But how can I tell family and friends that? I can't even accept it!
Dang, I was just starting to enjoy this mid-life thing.
* Factor in also that our city is basically one huge suburb of three million people, with a very poor rail service and little hope of political improvement to it in the forseeable future.
Regards, Matt B
Oh well, back to bed... Sweet dreams or nightmares?
The key characteristic of our simple model, several case histories and ongoing regional and world data is that it shows an accelerating net export decline rate. I expect to see a continued accelerating rate of decline in world net oil exports, which is why I always finish with a strong push for Alan Drake's plans.
Alan Drake's plans are suitable for urban areas, but are of little use for rural and small town areas. This urban/rural conflict is holding up progress.
When ethanol is rejected and only one solution that may suit urban areas is imposed there is going to be resistance from rural areas since they do not see any benefit.
A questioner asked about the percentage of liquid energy use that ethanol would be if all corn were converted to it. This implies that total liquid energy supply can continue at the same level it is now. It can not.
A more relevant question is what percentage of liquid fuel will ethanol be when we reach zero imports due to the ELM. By that time the ethanol percentage would be much larger because only domestic oil production would be available. This is not a minor point.
This inability to project oneself into the future situation is leading to a false conclusion about the usefulness of ethanol in mitigating Peak Oil.
The genius of Alan's approach is that he wants us to go with what we know works--using technology that was basically perfected more than 100 years ago, and built out with little or no liquid fuels.
http://www.plano.gov/Departments/parksandrecreation/recenters/interurban...
Plano, Texas Interurban Museum
And BTW, I think that local biodiesel plants, for agricultural use, probably make a lot of sense. Keeping with the theme of going with what was perfected more than 100 years ago, that is of course why Rudolph Diesel designed the engine in the first place--to allow farmers to have mechanized equipment powered by vegetable oil.
Compare and contrast that to what Plano has become; described by a college pal of mine (thirty years ago) as "the land where the BMW's roam free."
It has all the earmarks of what 'could' of been, had we not decided to go down the car path. not what 'can' be considering the current circumstances..
With some effort and expense (and trashing some wasted investments) a LOT can be done in a decade or two. Start now, and get as much done as fast as possible.
Alan
Alan Drake has many facets to the plans he has outlined. Trolleys may not be much use in small-town Iowa (right?), as they won't be in much of Maine, but a comprehensive system of electric Passenger and Freight Rail across the country will keep highway-bound, rural areas from becoming increasingly isolated. The plains states could be great contributors to an HVDC grid, possibly parallel to and serving these efficient electric rails, as they are fed in part by Iowa windpower.
I make no particular claims around ethanol, but I worry about the implication of doubling our dependency on crops for energy and for food, using materials vulnerable to drought, soil condition, fertilizer supplies, etc..
Either way, I don't think the Ethanol argument has any factors that preclude the sensibility of an Electric Rail buildout.
Bob
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_town_tramway_systems_in_the_United_...
Iowa - Albia, Ames, Boone, Burlington, Cedar Rapids, Centerville, Charles City, Clinton, Council Bluffs, Davenport, Des Moines, Dubuque, Fort Dodge, Fort Madison, Independence, Iowa City, Keokuk, Marshalltown, Mason City, Muscatine, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa, Red Oak, Sioux City, Tama-Toledo, Cedar Falls -Waterloo PLUS several interurbans.
Maine - Augusta, Bangor, Bath, Biddeford-Saco, Brunswick, Calais-St. Stephen, NB, Fairfield, Lewiston, Portland, Rockland, Sanford, Waterville
Best Hopes for Urban & Rural Rail,
Alan
Very good link Alan, thanks, Some of those towns (in Iowa at least) are under 10,000 in population.
My hometown was smaller - about 2000 people - and I was born in 1952. Once it had passenger train service that stopped there, by the time I was about 5 or so it still existed but I think you had to catch it at the county seat 7 miles away (by that point owning a car was pretty much assumed). At least until the 1960s several buses a day stopped in town as well. And there were businesses covering the whole gamut of what people needed. They're all dead now, the main street has a few new boutique businesses that aren't covered by the mall 16 miles away. Walmart's about 20 miles away. Even the main highway (US 34) has been diverted south of town, adding to the civic demise.
Most of the people I know in Iowa live in towns or cities, but none of them, far as I know, believe ethanol is a good idea, by the way. Apparently they even didn't before they listened to me. ;)
Thanks, Alan;
I just wrote to one of my State Leg. Reps, (after your Post last week) but probably didn't advocate the positions clearly enough. Here is a bit of the response that I have to find arguments to counter.. should have checked with you right away, but had to get into 'Home Weatherization' mode.
I did reply, in brief saying 'I know we can't afford to do it, but we also can't afford NOT to..' , and words to that effect. I think the argument for having interurbans will sell sooner here than of having intown trolleys, but I'd love to hear what angles you use when showing this to State Govts.
Best hopes for working outside our skillsets,
Bob Fiske
Kenosha Wisconsin pop 96,240 has a streetcar system (recently voted to expand it). Uses old Toronto streetcars (Toronto about to scrap some more).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetcars_in_Kenosha%2C_Wisconsin
Also Little Rock
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Rail_Streetcar
Seashore Trolley Museum is in Maine, I know the (former ?) Chairman of the Board, I think that they would be open to helping out a combo local & tourist line in Portland ME.
Portland OR has figured out how to build streetcar track for $300/ft in street (2003 $)
Best Hopes for small Streetcar Systems,
Alan
Soviet Elektrichka
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elektrichka
Interesting technical but even more so social commentary.
I can see one and two car EMUs connecting small towns a few times/day. With a container, box or flat car as well.
Alan
Thanks Texas Jeff and I'll have a read through Mr Drake's material when I get a chance. However, what's your "best guess" at global BAU collapse (assuming world powers and the Big Oilers do little to help steer a new path). Three years? Five years? Ten? Twenty?
I need a plan to determine whether to save for that farm or not.
Regards, Matt B
Still living in MS with a decade of debt in my pocket!
Matt, the credit crunch is beating PO to the punch, though there are some that believe it was triggered by the plateau in oil production.
It may not mean the end of BAU or not in Australia (then again, it certainly may), but it looks almost certain to cause severe global recession, possibly depression. I've always felt that the initial stages of PO would manifest as economic downturn rather than sudden shortages at the pump. Saving money & getting out of debt really is a very good plan right now, as is trying to ensure your job is on the "non discretionary" side of the economy.
That said, there's been previous articles about Australia's exposure to net exports. A substantial proportion of our oil comes from Vietnam and Malaysia, two countries on the fast track to zero exports over the next two or three years. After that we'll join the queue in the Middle East, along with many other thirsty nations...
One criticism that I have of the video of the presentation is that the visual materials displayed on the projector screen are not included. If the video could be edited to include this material (Powerpoint I presume?) it would be more effective.
Do you mean you don't see the slides at all? A frame should be opening up to the right of the video window with all the slides displaying in sequence at the correct time. This doesn't seem to work properly in various browsers/OS. Are you using Windows/IE or something else?
If when you visit the page you see (to the right of the embedded video) a big blue square with mediasite at the bottom there should be some buttons above that. Click the thumbnail one and you can browse the slides manually if they do not display automatically.
I viewed the video with Windows Media Player, which I placed in full-screen mode since playing it in-browser clipped the video. Therefore, no graphs/charts for me :(
Strangely the first time I played it the full video was clipped to what seemed like the top left quarter unless I went to fullscreen. Every other time I've tried it the video was scaled correctly.
One of the best Peak Oil presentations I've watched. What was clear to me is when you look at your body of evidence Peak Oil is not some way out theory but exactly the opposite.
At the end of your presentation your thesis "Can we continue to look at infinite growth in a finite world?" seemed irrefutable.
Thanks!
As the saying goes, if you want more of something you subsidize it, and if you want less of something you tax it. This should be obvious even to an idiot, which tells you something about the IQ level of the people running the USA.
I don't agree-the people running the USA are having a great time-never better. A study was done quantifying the dollar value of being elected a senator or congressman, and on average it is gigantic-the actual salary is inconsequential. These constant "idiot" references only tend to muddy the waters, which is what TPTB desire.
BrianT,I think that when most people on TOD refer to the powers-that- be as idiots,or worse,they are refering to their lack of medium to long term vision,not their present ability to milk the system.
It's getting to the point where I no longer know how to interpret any claims of increased production from exporters, because I don't have a running handle yet on how much is left after going through the filter of domestic consumption. It's easier therefore to game declining production from Russia and Mexico, for example, as patently and uniformly bad news.
G
Great point Anti-doomer. We can expect these fuel subsidies to be phased out in coming years, while demand keeps falling in the developed world. US demand (El Fatso) is falling rapidly.
The advent of many EV cars (GM Volt) in the next few years is truly remarkable -- the OPEC-killer, the death-ray for oil speculators. There may be one more run left in oil prices, or maybe it is crying-time for the oil bulls. Too soon to tell. The bulls have one ball left after the last price plummet, but full castration in on the slate.
"we can expect these fuel subsidies to be phased out in coming years" NO! NO! NO!
Fuel subsidies WON'T be phased out till AFTER a country has an economic collapse or revolution.
An example, my family is Egyptian and the cost of subsidies there dwarf the spending on health and education combined. In '77 Egypt had bread riots that would have had the same result as the '79 Iranian revolution if the price rises were not reversed. Now Egypt has even greater cost of subsidising bread and the number of cars is up tenfold.
Subsidies (food and fuel) will kill Egypts economy and cause a revolution in the next few years (rising population,rising consumption, rising cost per unit and declining production, ouch!. Eliminating subsidies will bring that revolution forward to now so the governments will of course keep subsidizing to put off that day. Same in many of the other subsidizing countries (or do you think Chavez etal are popular enough that they wouldn't be ousted?)
The same thought comes to my mind. Ship them to countries with subsidized fuel, like China, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia. This would help people here unload things that they would otherwise be unable to sell, but this only works if they don't do something stupid like go out and buy another SUV.
Several weeks ago I recommended loading up those car carriers with used SUVs and pickups for their return trip to the far east.
How does this help globally, or even just the US?
The best thing we could do is to minimize world consumption. If anything, we should pay cold hard cash for inefficient cars and recycle the materials in to high-efficiency cars for local sale and export.
It would help with the national balance of payments issue. If they displace new SUV production overseas the effect on foreign consumption would be a wash. If they expand global use of SUVs it drives up consumption/demand/price. I suspect in places like China owning a vehicle, even if it is driven infrequently is a status symbol, so perhaps these exported SUVs won't consume much.
Somehow this reminds me of the housing market. Someone buys a stupid SUV and it doesn't work out. All taxpayers pay hard cash to get it out of trouble.
Answer:
2008 20mpg or no license
2009 25mpg or no license
2010 30mpg or no license
Unlicensed vehicals go to the junk yard. BTW: The same argument could be made of old semi tractors that burn a lot more diesel than newer ones.
Never happen! Because the ones making the laws need to be re-elected and the ones with SUVs elect them. That's one reason I am a doomer.
Via Con Dios or Vaya Con Dios (both forms are spelled correctly)
A friend of mine, Tara, has a brother named Lynford, could you be one and the same? I was telling her and Bobby about Peak Oil when I visited a couple weeks ago. Sounds like Josh is on board the Doomer wagon.
Not the same. See my profile. Only child but I have some half sisters from later in life father re-married.
I see nothing serious to stop the doomer outcome of this mess the world is in. I also believe it will be earlier rather than later because of unemployment acceleration among other things.
I think that "Vaya" means "go" while "via" means "way, path, avenue etc."
"I'm sure that someone has already started buying up cheap used SUV's in the US and shipping them overseas."
You can put them in with the ag equipment that's going to
places like Greece and Brazil.
I wonder if Greece has gotten 4 row pickers yet?
Westexas said:
They're going to Mexico. Every month I see caravans running south on Interstate 35, for resale across the border.
Maybe this will be the smallpox blanket of the 21st century -- low-cost Hummers for exporting countries? It'll hasten along ELM curves for sure.......might even make some sense IF we had an alt-energy self-sufficient nation. But we don't.
I've seen this exact same sentiment earnestly expressed on several automobile enthusiast sites where the readership is generally of a reactionary political bent.
This frightens me because it implies that there are many in the West that are absolutely bent on making the worst choices possible going forward. It also frightens me because, with regard to autos, it appears that the "bigger is better" mentality has already propagated across the cultural divide between the Occident and the Orient.
I agree that the last thing we should want to do is to export our gas-guzzling vehicles to other parts of the world. (For the most part, those kinds of vehicles aren't already sold there because customers don't want them--high fuel prices being one reason.)
Rather, I'd like to see the US relax import restrictions on used vehicles from overseas. There are tons of compact diesel-powered cars and trucks in Asia, Europe and Latin America that aren't sold here. In Canada, you can import a foreign vehicle 15 years old or older, but in the US its 25 years. Up there, they import all kinds of low mile Japanese diesel powered vehicles, especially trucks, SUVs and vans, that get 30+ MPG and run great on biodiesel.
Many here in the US would like to choose smaller, but our choices have been artificially limited.
Those right hand drive vehicle scare me, especially when someone else is driving one. All the rest is true---good, low mileage, high mpg vehicles are coming into Canada in large numbers
Okay, wolverine,
I've got one that's even more extreme, and sicker:
http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=901919
"Would this help the economy?
What if, instead of recruitment bonuses, the military offered a new Ford/Chevy/Dodge truck/car after completion of their tech school? I'm sure the GOV could work out something with the Big 3 to provide vehicles at a reduced cost, increasing production/sales/etc..."
And the most mind-bending fact is that the replies don't exactly address the futility, much less the irony, of this whole blood-for-oil thing. I can imagine that Phase II of the program would pay a bounty in gallons of unleaded for every confirmed kill in-country.
Reading these conservative forums is a great way to get the pulse of the working class, if you have the stomach for it.
Thanks, I think, nelsone.
I'm just getting really tired of the seeming reactionary monopoly on public discourse in this country. In the long run I just want to hole up and be left alone to the business of sustaining myself and my family.
Now they are going to get our natural gas too!
http://www.silobreaker.com/DocumentReader.aspx?Item=5_884743940
The Chinese, sadly, are building an infrastructure based upon a lifestyle that, at best, would be appropriate and understandable if we were still in the 1950s. They have seen the past that is completely incompatible with the future and have decided to expand their economy based upon the symbols of the past. There is not much excuse for what has happened in the United States except to say that we were unable to project what would happen based upon our lifestyle. But it is obvious now how unsustainable the SUV/suburban lifestyle is and yet the Chinese choose to use that paradigm as their linchpin of development. They are busy making oil deals all over the world to make a mad rush to experience the thrill of the SUV lifestyle, a lifestyle that cannot possibly last more than a mere decade if that.
This has to do down as one of the greatest follies of the 21st century. We have seen the future and choose to ignore it.
Those Americans who want to cling to their SUVs and their high energy lifestyle will make the argument that there is no point in giving up their oil use if the Chinese will just take up the slack. In this context, personal, even national actions seem futile and irrelevant.
Well said.
The Chinese may be repeating the U.S. folly, but the U.S. was warned by the twin oil shocks of the 1970's that we needed to change our ways and we didn't heed the message. Here we are almost 30 years later again confronting the same problem. Seriously, folks, just why should the Chinese slow their rush to wealth? Their national consumption per person is way below ours and they have made a major effort to control their population, something the U.S. appears to be unwilling to even discuss, let alone do anything about.
All the while, the Chinese are building a capacity to produce electric vehicles, starting at the bottom with electric bicycles and scooters. There's no major company in the U.S. which is building such. Heck, we don't even have a company which builds modern motorcycles (sorry, Harley). We do here repeated claims that GM will begin to build EV's, sometime -- in a couple of years -- maybe, but the Chinese are already doing that. Remember how Honda grew from a maker of small motorcycles to being the builder of highly desirable, fuel efficient cars. The Japanese motorcycle manufacturers destroyed the British bike builders, who did not keep up the technical advances from Japan. BMW went thru a similar transition after WW II and now builds expensive vehicles in the U.S.
All those Chinese freeways will work equally well for EV's as for gas or diesel vehicles and also work with buses. I wonder whether the Chinese Government has a longer term view, as they will need the roads for whatever vehicles are available to use them. When they are done building, the roads will be new, unlike our U.S. Interstate system. We know how good the Chinese engineering can be, since we trained quite a lot of themselves over decades. In 30 or 50 years, the Chinese might still be a functioning nation, while the U.S. has become a second rate collection of city/states not unlike Europe after the 14th century. Could be that it's all part of the plan...
E. Swanson
You can't talk about population control for citizens until you nix immigration, and we're not to that point yet. I think as soon as unemployment pops up we will be though.
Like the US "National System of Interstate and DEFENSE Highways", the Chinese highway system also has military as well as civilian applications. The Chinese are prepared to quickly deploy massive military resources to subdue any civil disorder anywhere in their territory - that is how their regime stays in power. They are also quite capable of quickly cutting off all motor fuel to the civilian sector anywhere or everywhere if neecessary, or even of expropriating all privately owned motor vehicles if that is what they feel they have to do.
It is a different country with a different system. Keep that in mind.
China is following in other east asian countries' footsteps, not the US. China doesn't have the space and national mentality of ample/infinite resources to follow the American footstep. But following the east asian footstep still means huge oil consumption though.