Khebab, thanks for this compilation.

Here's the forecast I produced last year which I believe is using similar methodology to that used by J. Burn this year - i.e. the forecast is built upon the historic production stack, some assumption is made about decline (I'll return to that later) with new projects built upon that to produce the forecast. I think JB's forecast looks pretty similar to mine though I note he is modeling crude oil and mine is for crude + condensate + NGL (C+C+NGL).

Forecast numbers are production capacity. Actual production may be lower depending upon demand. Click all charts to enlarge

This forecast is built upon the significant body of work done modeling reserves and decline in Ghawar last year by Stuart Staniford and myself aided and abetted by a gang of TODers. At the end of it all Stuart and I reached very similar conclusions.

This is the revised base case Ghawar forecast upon which the Saudi forecast is built:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2507

The weaknesses with this Saudi forecast that I would identify myslef are as follows:

• The 500,000 kbd estimates for discovered undeveloped and yet to find are pure guess work.
• I have applied 5% decline to the heritage assets and this may be far too high. As JB points out here there are still large undrilled areas on certain supergiants that can be drilled to compensate for decline. This may be particularly true in the northern sour heavy fields of Safaniyah, Marjan and Zaluf.
• No allowance is made for secondary recovery from the now wet areas of Ghawar. With the right investment these may produce vast amounts of oil with high water cut forward to 2100.

Each of these points are likely to add to the forecast shown and this will likely help bridge the gap between the reserves held in this forecast and those reported by the likes of Colin Campbell.

A note for Khebab: is it possible to remove the Euan 2007 Ghawar base case and high case lines from the compilation - which I think were your own guess work and which are superceded by the forecast shown above. They appear in any case to be wrongly labelled? And is it possible to add the C+C+NGL forecast as shown above? You should already have the XL file.