<Georgia Conflict - Open Thread #3 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: August 13, 2008>

84 comments on Yet Another Forecast for Saudi Oil Production

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Sam Foucher on August 12, 2008 - 1:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Following your comment, I've updated the chart in JoulesBurn story.

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Euan Mearns on August 12, 2008 - 1:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks Sam,

So what is HSM and where did the Brown and Khebab forecast come from and has Jeffrey seen it?

Euan

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Sam Foucher on August 12, 2008 - 1:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You can click on the links within the table in order to get a detailed explanation. In a nutshell:

- The HSM is a variant of the Shock model proposed by WHT, the Saudi Arabia forecast is based on a discovery dataset from IHS:

- The Brown & Khebab is based on a bootstrapped HL technique with a fairly large uncertainty, I took only the upper forecast (URR @ 250 Gb):

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WebHubbleTelescope on August 12, 2008 - 7:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think that the HSM is one of the best approaches for SA, in particular given the fact it is almost impossible to get good reserve growth numbers off of discovery data from such an inscrutably circumspect national oil company.

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84 comments on Yet Another Forecast for Saudi Oil Production

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