I'm not sure which way your sarcasm is supposed to cut, it's not clear from your message. I assume someone raised that clearly irrelevant argument against him somewhere else, and you are attempting to pre-empt it.

I regard Kunstler's predictions as a convincing possible future, but certainly not inevitable. Suburbia has a lot of disadvantages but I think at least some portion of it will continue to be inhabitable and inhabited. Not so much because I am in love with suburbia, but because of simple economics: people have already invested so much in their homes that they will make do to the extent possible. Selling and moving won't be such an easy option when their house's value drops, while the value of more livable/walkable homes may skyrocket (relatively speaking). Given a choice between abandoning everything they put into a suburban house and starting from scratch, or trying to make do however possible, I think most people will make the latter choice. Certainly some of the more outlying, more recently developed suburbs may come to be largely abandoned, but older suburbs I think will continue to be inhabited. While people have less access to each other and to common supplies, they have space to grow gardens, and can probably borrow a ride once in a while to stock up on certain things.

That leaves the question of jobs, and how to get to them, which is the most disruptive problem. Many more people will be working at home, either telecommuting or running a small home business. Shops will open in people's neighborhoods, perhaps even in people's garages. Carpooling will become much more prevalent for those who have to commute. That still leaves a gap, and outlying areas will again be the least practical, but by no means is it a total collapse.

"That still leaves a gap, and outlying areas will again be the least practical, but by no means is it a total collapse."

So how do the "supplies" get into the "city" to be distributed to
these still inhabited suburbs?

Start thinking Nigeria pipeline explodes as people line up
to get gasoline from them.

and helos sold by Taliban after stolen from supply "train"
into Afghanistan.

I went to town the other day. I needed some steel. "Town" is 140 miles round trip. The drive both ways took about two hours. If I rode my Mule, it would be a four day trip, at least, and maybe five, depending on what I did while in town. How valuable is fuel?

I make the trip into town every couple of months for stuff I can't get around here, mainly steel for my shop, or sometimes, bullets (I keep a Winchester next to the front door for critters). I've noticed this year the lack of highway maintenance. The highway is cracking and there are many unfilled cracks. I guess the counties have other priorities for spending their limited budgets. Asphalt apparently isn't one of them. Best Wishes from the Fremont

depending on what I did while in town.

So what is the problem? That 5 day trip sounds like it would be my choice! :)

What I do in town? See a movie? Bad Chinese food? Maybe a junkyard visit? No problemo. Five days round trip, that's OK. Four nights sleeping out no problem either. Wintertime will be a bit rough, but I can do it. The five hundred miles, round trip, to visit my Daughter will just take up one half of the month, maybe a bit more, again, it depends. Whatever minimum wage is, $7 per hour (?), well the five days for 140 miles, 8 hours per day, times $7/hr. times 5 days = $280. To compare, my truck gets 15 mpg diesel, at $5 per gallon = 10 gallons for the 150 mile round trip, more or less, or $50 in fuel vs. $280 lost wages at minimum wage for the 5 day trip. Of course, this is pretty meaningless. The point is, we get a lot for our fuel costs, even at $5 per gallon. A $50 fuel bill beats the hell out of five days round trip and four nights on the ground, rain or shine.

Hey, the world as we know it is about to end and you gotta go all coy and serious on me? And here I was going to invite you to Mabel's place when you had that day in town.:(

Wouldn't a bicycle be quicker than your mule?

Don't have to feed it either.

You can't pull a plow, or a wagon for instance.

And speed will not be a prerequisite BTW.

One can tow several hundred lbs. of payload on a bike trailer, and more on the bike/trike itself.

http://worksmancycles.com/shopsite_sc/store/html/page6.html

Best Hopes for Bicycles & Tricycles,

Alan

Do you know anyone who does this regularly, or even occassionally, for the distances mentioned? I bike to work (and everywhere else, as I don't have a car), an 8 mile roundtrip with significant hills in 15 minutes there, 20-25 back, carrying up to 40-50 pounds when work requires traveling, and I can't imagine towing several hundred pounds up the hills I encounter on my trip would be pleasant, whether trying to brake or pedal. Granted I've never tried towing weight before, but towing that much weight on anything but rather flat ground strikes me as a challenge I would rather dodge. Anyway, just curious if this does happen.

You can pull an amazing amount of weight with a bike trailer. Going uphill is tough, and stopping is too. But, gearing is everything, and as long as you accept very low speeds on the climbs, 1000 lb on a smooth road is very doable with the right gears.

If you ride enough with your trailer, maybe you can make the Olympic cycling team, like Svein Tuft. This is an AMAZING story:

http://www.bcsportsbeat.ca/More/olympian_svein_tuft_story_719.htm

20 years ago in Beijing the streets were full of bicycle "trucks" carrying all sorts of goods around the city. They were slow but it was amazing what they could carry.

Scien: Suburbia is a generalization, as you state. The inner burbs should be as strong as inner urban areas, IMO. The car culture is too important to too many people to leave without a fight.

I assume someone raised that clearly irrelevant argument against him somewhere else, and you are attempting to pre-empt it.

Or it might be a made up absurdity to point out the irrelevance of many of the attacks on JHK.

Given a choice between abandoning everything they put into a suburban house and starting from scratch, or trying to make do however possible, I think most people will make the latter choice.

Jim calls it the "psychology of prior investment." I call it throwing your money away. But in any case, more and more people are walking away--because their mortgage is more than the value of the financial black hole that they reside in.

We just have way, way too much housing space. Zoning regulations will probably be scrapped, and a lot of houses in reasonable proximity to mass transit lines will be subdivided and/or turned into tenement housing.