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178 comments on Geopolitical Disruptions #1: Theory of Disruptions to Oil & Resource Supply
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178 comments on Geopolitical Disruptions #1: Theory of Disruptions to Oil & Resource Supply
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No it hasn't "lost all value". It may have become a lot lower in price but it remains the same fine china tableware with the same (non-monetary) value. As in knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing!
Very much the same fallacy as Simmons points out about oil - that because its price is only £1xx it fails to be properly valued as more like the $2xxx + that it is really worth, too valuable for mere burning and transport.
I disagree in the past people handed their fine china down from one generation to the next not only did it have monetary value but it picked up tremendous sentimental value. Or it was presented as a wedding gift and this invoked feelings every time it was used etc.
It was not a price issue although price/cost and limited availability ensured that china could be used as this sort of gift.
Mass production destroys these concepts. Look at the McMansion craze in housing. Large homes used to be custom homes built for people with real wealth and generally speaking they where works of art ( Often ugly but )
The McMansion destroyed this concept and created the middle class mansion instead that probably will decay rapidly because of its cheap construction.
So all value has been lost.
Another thing one reason that ELP (Economize Localize Produce) is so attractive is that local production naturally ensures that what is produced is resource constrained at some level. This constraint is really about getting back to making works of art not mass produced garbage. And I'm not talking about the physical serviceability of mass produced work such such a china vs hand made china. I'm talking about this concept of treasuring and in a sense respecting the giving a long life to something every time we change the value of the raw materials by applying energy and creative thinking.
Every time a object no matter how mundane is made by hand you have the chance for human inspiration to create something new and different. Mass production destroys this. What we treasure is this embodiment of human thought and skill in a object and with that its treasured art and more often a unique capturing of a thought whim or even more important concept or breakthrough.
Localization and by default constrained and limited production brings this back.
I agree there is some validity in your reply. But it is a largely subjective thing and depends on the person. And meanwhile the teacups are still teacups that hold the same amount of tea just as solidly.
A person such as myself recognises a thing for its beauty and usefulness. I don't care how cheap it was or how mass-produced.
I'd like to cite an example. I have 2 Bechstein model 5 (= model 10) pianos. The market price of these is relatively low because ignorant people (= the vast majority) assume that non-overstrung pianos are inferior. But I myself just recognised outstanding, brilliantly-designed pianos for what they were - it is so rare to find pianos that have good uniform tone etc., let alone with a smaller size too. Only later via the internet did I learn that expert others with the required discernment of quality recognise these as some of the best pianos ever made (and in my experience there are far more Bechstein 5s/10s than any other model of any make, a reflection of that fact). Personally I don't give a fig that the ignorant assume these to be less valuable, more fool them. By the way, quality pianos have been in great part mass-produced for the past 150 years, big deal. The higher the quality the masser the production (because huge research and expertise is involved)!
Good observations. I've thought about a related concept in regards to digital reproduction of art.
In the recent past the (audio) quality of recorded music would decline over time, and there was little that could be done about it. Now with digital storage, it can be copied and what's more, distributed around the world in an identical state. Does it lose value through this, or gain it?
As a musician, I'm socially dissuaded from investing all my time in songwriting/performing, because so much music is available due to modern distribution channels (internet/tv music channels/radio). I think my inclination to write/perform comes - to a degree - from the wish to acquire social capital. But since there's now a global market to compete with, I'm forced more into the (more detrimental) aquisition of financial capital instead.
I have often thought how much difference it would make to social outcomes of musicians if music could not be recorded or amplified. Performance would be limited to small groups. The same applies to many art forms.
To some extent this issue is not a matter of recording but access to distribution channels. If you think about it the real problem is a performing art needs an audience. The reason I bring this up is obviously there is a imbalance in access to customers between the small time musician that the industry. Internet radio is beginning to close this gap. But the key point is that every time you don't perform we lose the chance for a famous song to be created. So the main point of loosing the chance for human inspiration stands. Only when people are actively involved in a process esp the arts can new art be created. The recording industry destroys a lot of this. Look at Rap and indeed most of our new musical forms they where all developed by street musicians or bar bands.
I've noticed in bars the tendency to have DJ's instead of live music for example.
Back to the interesting problem of high fidelity recording. All I can do is compare it to a computer program programs can be perfectly copied but we have a vibrant open source community so perfect copying works to our advantage. The big difference I see is the with programs we can choose to send the source which allows people to apply their own inspiration to a original work. I'd say that the problem with music in a world where it can be perfectly copied is that you lack a real format for sending music out in a form that allows it to be edited and modified by others.
So what probably needs to happen is that music should actually be send in the form of a electronic notes. Voice removed editable tracks etc. The voice format itself probably needs some sort of word recognition boundary so that its also editable. You can see that I'm suggesting that the problem is music is not being distributed in a form that allows others to perform the work and add their own inspiration. Karaoke is a small example of this and it keeps older songs alive and well.
In general this problem is true for all of the performing arts to overcome the problems of digital reproduction and its destruction of human inspiration they need to follow the open source model and release the ability to perform and edit the work to create new works. Thus the underlying problem is not high fidelity reproduction but having closed the doors to allow works to be adapted.
I see what you're getting at, but don't really equate the creation/performance of music with software development (I do both). Maybe it's a personal thing, and although both are creative, I consider software development a logical, rationalised and designed process where there is little room for emotion, whereas music (for me anyway) is an emotional outpouring during which if the rational mind intervenes too much, the music suffers.
I have thought about open source music before though, and it seems like a good idea, although most musicians I've met are quite precious about ownership issues - perhaps that's because they tend to earn less than software developers?
I still think I'd prefer a less globalised music market, on the other hand I'm certainly glad to have had access to such an array of choice and influence... so maybe it's just jealousy!
I suppose employing DJs for entertainment rather than instrumentalists is analogous to employing a man and a plough rather than and army of people with spades. In both cases cheap energy/technology is leveraged, and forms a replacement for people.
Its a interesting problem and exposes the flaws of generalizations perfectly. But by using the basic concept of what your trying to achieve which is to inject and distribute your own musical inspirations I think you can frame the problem correctly. As is often the case the biggest problem is identifying the problem once its identified then solutions can be tried. Personally I think the entire music industry is seriously sick sort of like the Software industry which is controlled by a few major players. The open source movement was lucky to succeed. I think the music industry needs the same sort of lucky/stealth change that breaks the strangle hold of the recording studios. Considering the immense wealth offered to successful musicians it not surprising that they are part of the problem. The film/acting industry suffers from similar dynamics.
As we run out of Natural Gas to fire our air conditioners maybe people will return to live music and this will break up the recording cartel.
I dunno all I do know is that on average the poorer communities are far more musical then the wealthy ones.
I do know from my own life that cool music was far more prevalent when I was younger then it is today. Although I don't like rap in general some really good songs where created early on now its been commercialized.
Its interesting that the state of music at any point in time seems to be very reflective of the social and economic conditions. I'm not sure how to interpret this but music somehow acts as sort of a indicator of our social state. Not just rich and poor but also it embodies our happy/sad concepts in a collective way.
Country music for example..
I think we have made a mistake by not really listening to our own music to understand our societies.
I think you're right about music reflecting society, but also think music (and art generally) has some emotional power to help change societies to some degree too. At the moment I'll admit there's little evidence of this.
Appealing to peoples emotions has often been useful for leaders in difficult times - sometimes notoriously. If we can harness these powers positively on a more local level - as global/national institutions reduce in significance, it might help provide at least a little help in getting our societies through what is coming.
In a perfect world, I agree with you. As the main character in "The Forgotten Door" says, "How can a thing have two values?" But in a market economy, you are dreaming dreamy dreams.
Cheers
The market economy is only relevant to the price, not to the differing values it has to different people. The market makes not the slightest difference to the sound etc of my piano. Or the elegance of a fine design. The high prices of Rolex watches do not make them any less ugly, let alone more attractive than my £20 highly-accurate and reliable Lorus which is actually elegant unlike any Rolex I've seen.
I am reminded of the bidders one encounters on ebay, whom I call loonies. They have no concept of how much it is worth to themselves. For instance I happen to want a second widget w to go with my present widget w, which works well with my already-installed system. So a w is worth twice for me what it is for others. But when the looney sees that I bid 80 for it he then "reasons" that it must be worth at least 85 for him. And so on ad idioticum to his """winning""" the auction at whatever idiotic cost it takes. There's a way of beating these loonies but that's a trade secret not to be given away here.
Unfortunately most of the loonies bidding on oil futures are working to a presumption that the price is "high" at present and will come down even in the longterm.
Marketing junk aside i.e Rolex etc. What one pays for if you choose a different economic model is to purchase products that are built using continuous input of human inspiration or purchase copies of a single design session. If you choose products that have continuous input then you probably will pay a slightly higher price then those that don't. Hand made really means a unified design and manufacturing process i.e the designers are the builders and also directly responsible to the customers.
No marketing depts no sales no managers etc etc just people building something beautiful because they love to built it and making a decent living. As the costs of mass production, marketing and distribution increase I think we will find that moving back to a simpler approach makes sense and then we will discover how much we lost by cutting the designers out of the manufacturing process.
Just to bring this back slightly on track :)
We have the same problems in politics the voters have been isolated from the governments.
Democracy works very well up to a certain threshold but the process is readily corruptible and turned into a marketing campaign when the voters lose personal contact with their representatives.
Or system of laws tends to work a lot better when its derived from case law not the ones congress imposes since its far less disconnected from the populace. I'd lave to see the courts really be able to rule on tax laws based on case history for example the IRS would lose more often then not.
This disconnect between the rulers and the ruled is what allows these political problems to develop.
For example take the Georgia conflict I'm sure that if all the citizens of the countries involved were allowed to hammer out a agreement then we would not have these sorts of problems. Physically thats too many people to get together but a representative approach of 1:100 or 1:1000 is readily doable and these people could reach a binding agreement probably in a few weeks at worst.
You will notice that no modern form of government allows people to take this sort of direct approach for solving major problems this is by design.