I don't get this need to try and analyze daily fluctuations of these markets.

You might as well go to the track and bet on the ponies.

Its not that we are trying to predict these fluctuations to make money (though certainly many do). But there seems to be a continual flood of rationalizations of why oil has gone from $10 to $120 in under 9 years due to everything except the real reasons, i.e. that population and demand are increasing, and geology and flow rates are becoming limited. If people acknowledge this backdrop, then each day to day movement can have its own players and story while policymakers address the looming crises. But the day to day players seem to be telling policymakers what the story is, and that's not helping.

Everyone wants the good times to roll, again. HA!

I told a friend of mine on the west coast, "Gas has gone down a quarter, I guess the SUV's will make a roaring comeback ... "

Here's from the Financial Times, July 30; (Javier Blas): “After years of strong growth, liquidity in commodities futures markets, particularly crude oil, is falling abruptly as the credit crunch finally hits leveraging in the sector and contributes to a sharp increase in price volatility. The number of outstanding contracts - known as open interest in industry jargon - in key US commodities markets has fallen 5.5% since March and is now at its lowest level since January, according to Barclays… In oil, open interest has fallen to its lowest in more than a year and a half. Analysts and traders say the reduction in liquidity has been brought about by financial institutions deleveraging - particularly among cash-squeezed Wall Street banks…”

"Markets will fluctuate." J. P. Morgan.

Worse than that the same clowns who are shooting their wads in the energy commodities casinos are the ones who are supposedly investing in new energy technology.

Over the weekend I ran into a friend of a friend who had a supposedly decently viable tidal power company. I say had, because he's having to shut up shop just as he was trying to scale up to a commercial demonstrator because his venture capital firm decided it could get better ROI with the huge swings of the last few months on futures.

Once again I say: "The market didn't put a man on the moon - not while it could play the crack spread instead"