384 comments on DrumBeat: August 5, 2008
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384 comments on DrumBeat: August 5, 2008
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Consider a lottery ticket.
The 50% "confidence level" payoff is zero.
The expected payoff is maybe 30 cents - infinitely greater.
You encounter this situation whenever you have a skewed distribution of possibilities. In other words, whenever it is probably nothing, but it could be a jackpot.
You have to understand the difference between the median and the mean, but given the lack of reliable data, it probably doesn't make much difference.