158 comments on May 2008 EIA Oil Production Record. Will it Too be Revised Downward?
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158 comments on May 2008 EIA Oil Production Record. Will it Too be Revised Downward?
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So what have you and Nate been smoking tonight?
Like I said, it's just a theory...and I wasn't able to figure out when Birol became the go-to guy...what is your recall?
Hi Chris - I'm on vacation in S France and have succumbed to some of the local pleasures. Rumors circulating in Scotland that the Sun had gone out I find were over done.
I likely agree with your analysis that Fatih Birol has brought a new sense of realism to the IEA - BUT - the 2008 estimate showing crude production rising to over 80 mmbpd in 2030 is hallucinatory.
What event in the early 2020s is going to turn oil depletion around?
It is interesting to observe the shifting perceptions from 2006 to 2008. 2007 was a bad year for forecasting?
You lucky dog...it's been WAY too long since I sampled the pleasures of Provence! Have a duck confit or an epoisse for me.
Agreed that the projections of both are still too optimistic, but I think they're backing into the truth slowly. I, for one, will be extremely interested to see how EIA responds to the IEA report in November.
It's easy enough to say that the supply problem will resolve itself more than a decade in the future, if palliatives are what you're after. Such projections rarely get called out. So that's a nice little safety zone for them.
I think 2007 wasn't a bad year for forecasting so much as a good year for optimism. Energy stocks were all on a tear.