Preview quit working for me a couple of weeks ago.
Two different pc's, operating sys and providers too.

Please don't be too harsh. The picture is cute.

Hackers worry me. Saw a programme on Australian TV a few nights ago where some patriotic Chinese hackers are working out how to disable the West. Programme said there were several hundred thousand of them in hacking clubs and supposedly they disabled the power supply in North East US a year or so ago.
Guess the olympic games were boring to watch so they made their own fun.

Interesting...the PC I'm on right now got it's first ever virus quarantined and removed by Norton AV last night as well.

The oil production numbers are often revised. From what I understand, the EIA data is among the best that can be easily accessed (approximately free). How accurate the production figures really are is difficult to ascertain.

Given that the recent crude-oil price spike to ~$133/bbl (WTI) average for Jun & Jul has occurred on a world oil production "plateau" and indeed may have happened during a slight upswing in production, one is left wondering what the price response will be when global production starts to decline. According to WT, the recent price rise is perhaps largely due to a "bidding war" over declining net exports. Net exports would likely decline even faster with diminishing production rates. Thus, sharply higher prices can be anticipated.

In regards to the data, I wonder how many of us on TOD will ever see Peak Oil in the "rear-view mirror." At a minimum, three to five years of production declines would likely be required to prove peak. It's an open question as to wether-or-not any of the agencies that provide oil production figures will still be functional five years after peak, and, if they are still operating, if the data will be freely accessible. There's also the potential for data manipulation (for the conspiracy-minded among us :o) In any event, what this means is that when Peak Oil has/is occurred/ing is largely a personal judgment based on the available information.

-best,

Wolf in YVR BC

I would disagree that these numbers, by themselves, constitute a convincing argument for Peak Oil. One only has to ask whether oil production has ever plateaued like this before. Reviewing the historical production numbers in the Energy Export Databrowser one sees that world oil production spent the first half of the 1980's in retreat and only regained the 1980 highs by the end of the decade:

Discrepancy between consumption and production represents the uncertainty in the numbers.

The early 1980's were years of major economic and political upheaval throughout the world accompanied by huge jumps in the price of oil. This combination caused a noticeable decline in the amount of oil consumed and, hence, produced.

Today we are once again in a period of major economic and political upheaval accompanied by huge jumps in the price of oil. It is conceivable, though I expect unlikely, that demand for oil could actually decline below current production capacity with a concomitant decline in oil prices. Such a development would cause many to disregard the message of Peak Oil if the argument for it is only based on production numbers or price.

So no. To me 17 months of bound-to-be-revised production numbers do not constitute a convincing or reliable argument. More information about historical trends in discovery, total production, production per well and national and per capita consumption rates are needed to make a scientifically rigorous argument that the availability of oil is about to decline. Taken together, these trends make what I consider to be a very convincing argument that cannot be discounted by a single month's or even year's increase in production or decrease in price.

Making the data behind these historical trends easily accessible is what I'm trying to do with the databrowser.

Happy Exploring!

-- Jon