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83 comments on Countdown to $200 oil (10) - oil at $115!!
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83 comments on Countdown to $200 oil (10) - oil at $115!!
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There's no reason to suggest the past trend will continue, but if it does, ~$200 would be hit at the end of 2010.
There are some good reasons to think that it won't continue, at least for a few years, - chiefly a global economic slowdown being lead by the USA as a result of popping property market bubbles, and the ongoing credit crisis effecting the global financial/banking sector.
Where I am (if the Spanish Govt supplied rose tinted spectacles are removed) economic growth next year will probably be 0%, plus or minus a fraction. This years growth figure has been consistently revised down as the months go by.
I agree that there "are some good reasons to think that it won't continue".
The statement that "there's no reason to suggest the past trend will continue" is however simply wrong. There are also some (maybe not so good) reasons for the global demand to grow in the coming years. Some of the reasons are
- Most economies in Europe and Asia have proved to be quite robust so far.
- Thanks to the high energy taxes on gasoline in Europe, the demand for fuel has not dropped in many countries. Where I live (Switzerland), the consumption is even increasing.
- Demand growth for oil will also come from China, India and the oil exporters.
- The Olympics will soon be over.
- Let's see where the dollar goes.
$200 a barrel might prove deadly for the US economy, but not so elsewhere.
Then again: What would a deep recession in the US mean for the global demand for oil? 1% down? 10%?
Chris
Much appreciate your chart and explanations.
You and Jerome add value.
Phil
If oil doesn't go up today, then the oil bull market is not only dead, the funeral preparations are being readied. If you want to kill your portfolio, go long on oil.