227 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread #2
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
227 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread #2
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
- Oilwatch Monthly November 2009
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
- The Bullroarer - Friday 20th November 2009
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“Most people spend more time and energy going around problems than in trying to solve them.”
—Henry Ford
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
So what do people think that Russia's endgame is?
IMO Russia will demand:
Georgian military expelled from all of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Explicit autonomy for these 2 regions.
Destruction of georgia's more advanced weapon sustems (air force and military radar facilities).
I wouldn't expect the Russians to grab land outside these 2 regions. Although it wouldn't surprise me if they crossed those borders to briefly occupy and destroy Georgian military installations.
So what do people think that Russia's endgame is?
Russia will regain Batumi, saahkasvili will be gone
and Georgia will join the SCO.
Armenia will be stronger.
Another lose/lose/lose for America.
Main problem facing America is that the Bush presidency -- and arguably American administrations in general -- is ideologically driven. Not that this necessarily puts US foreign policy at a disadvantage. Ideology certainly motivates: people will die for it.
Disadvantage, however, is that it narrows perspective. The neocons who put together the Project for a New American Century are go-getters but they do not see nuance.
Where brawns is all that is needed to settle a question, the neocons will send in the guns.
Putin, on the other hand, is Russia's equivalent to a latter-day Bismarck. He sees nuance. He's no doubt read -- and understands -- The Prince by Machiavelli. He straddles the world stage like a chess board.
Where both brains & brawns is needed -- in other words, strategy & diplomacy -- Putin will play the game for all it is worth.
IMO, the long term prospects for America don't look too promising: appears that neither McCain nor Obama have the caginess of Putin. Hopefully, whoever wins the White House may have enough sense to surround himself with advisers of a similar ilk.
Putinn was compared to Cardinal Richelieu in an article
I read yesterday.
Either way, no one is comparing anyone in DC
to anything but failure.
The above observation may be correct and appears to be calmly composed. I really appreciate that.
Still, I have to ask the rhetorical question in relation to the whole discussion at hand:
Who gives a flying hoot about what America wins or loses in Georgia?
It's not their business to be there to begin with - advancing their own selfish interests.
The same goes for Russia as well, of course.
The real question is: What about the people of Georgia?
They are being played like the proverbial pawn in this grand chessboard game of geopolitical strategy. Russians and Americans couldn't care less as of what happens to them. They will be sacrificed the second it makes any strategic sense.
I find it really sad that more and more of us westerners on are succumbing to the old way of cold war style thinking of "us against them". Next thing we know, we'll be building walls in some of these places with armed guards and all (sorry, scratch that... already doing that).
Is this what people really want? More war, more confrontation, more friction in international affairs?
I tend to think that we ought to consider the real living people in the middle of this - and not just perverse geopolitical games that supposedly grown up children in the military and central governments play to amuse themselves, stroke their inflated egos - in order to try and reaffirm their distorted world view.
I really don't understand the current nostalgia for cold war, but if this is indeed the way it is going to be, then roll on Iran, roll on Syria, roll on Libya, roll on Sudan, roll on the rest of the Middle East repartitioning.
Because that is exactly what we are going to get, if we continue on this "us against them" type of simplistic game theoretical zero-sum thinking: US vs. Russia, US vs China, etc.
Do people really want war this much?
Or is this all already about the 'unavoidable' resource wars for oil, access to pipelines and geo-strategic locations for bases (read: oil production/pipeline protection forces) ?
If so, then the game for peak oil is already lost. Like James Schlesinger (ex-CIA, ex-DoE) said:
I sincerely hope I'm reading the signals wrong here and all this is just standard political posturing and that it'll all blow over soon with hopefully not a single more civilian casualty added to the body count.
That's pretty much what Neville Chamberlain said, and he was of course right.
But he was also wrong.
It's a difficult thing. Sometimes it's better to just not get involved, other times it's better to jump in, balls-to-the-wall, with a full-on effort and no compromise.
But you never know for sure which it was until afterwards.
The latest report from the BBC has Russian troops in Senaki, which is in Georgia proper near Abkhazia. If this is true then it appears that the Russians are going to sweep in from the Georgian side of the Kodori Gorge in order to expell the Georgian troops holding the position.
BBC report:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7554507.stm
Map:
http://encarta.msn.com/map_701509822/abkhazia.html
This is a clearly aggressive move. Russia is intent on not just expelling Georgian troops from the disputed areas, but an undisputed military victory and degradation of the Georgian armed forces.
Regardless of who started this Russia is going to be the new mentor for whoever is the next leader of Georgia.
Your already behind. Russia has invaded areas well away from those previously mentioned.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7554507.stm
I'd guess they want a puppet regime in Georgia, doing exactly what they are told.
Turkey have to be getting a bit worried.
The Turks have been living next to a Georgia taking orders from the Kremlin for centuries. Indeed, the Turks and Georgians (muslims vs christians) have been enemies for most of their national existence (centuries). It's a return to a very longstanding status quo ante, so what do the Turks have to be worried about?
Of course, it isn't like there has never been any past precedent of Russia conquering, occupying, and annexing neighboring states.
Were Russia to take the whole of Georgia and forceably bring it back into the fold of the Russian Federation, this would place the BTC pipeline under its control. It would also send quite a message to the other former soviet republics. Not quite "checkmate", but quite a big move nevertheless.
When the electricity comes back on and gas is moving thru the pipes will be the sure sign that Russia is back
in charge.
And the women can quit breaking up their furniture to cook with.
;}
Same for Iraq BTW
Control of all energy flows to the EU, and economic and military superiority over all the Central states. This is just the beginning.
Really I don't think they are worried about the US right now, but in building a buffer (economic, energy, and military) vs China long-term.
I think the endgame is pretty obvious. When this ends Russia will have neutralised the security threat represented by Georgia, it will leave no possibility for its return and it will de facto have control over the pipeline strengthening its control over energy exports.
Having played its hand, Russia will then have to act quickly to neutralise US influence over Europe. Any reaction against Russia by Europe will likely cause Russia to cut energy exports during the winter, which given the current trend may be colder than usual. Ukraine also will have to be neutralised as a threat to Russia and will likely be leaned on heavily.
Iran is now probably a key element in any Russian plans for the US. The overall plan will be to soften US power so as to allow the emergence of a Russia and China as global power players on a par with the US. This begs the question of what China's role is in this and what forthcoming action can be expected of from China. When the Olympics finish, will China make its own power play?
The ball is in play, everyone will now need to make their moves. I think we are seeing the start of a major shift in global power relationships.
China announces imminent takeover of Taiwan, by force if necessary.
Taiwan asks for US assistance.
US remains strangely silent, knowing China has it by the balls as a holder of massive amounts of currency and debt.
Conservatives blame Clinton.