I thought that Ace had one of the more reasonable crude oil price curves for oil, increasing by perhaps $20/bbl per year as supply dropped further and further behind demand.

What his crude oil price curve did not capture, and what noone can fortell, is what the undulating plateau will look like. I would say that we have definitely entered the undulating plateau period.

I also recall that Skrebowski reported that crude oil would be in the $60 to $80/bbl range. My model showed $90/bbl, but I am sure that like my model, Skrebowski's model did not factor in a crash in the housing market which caused investors to put their money into commodities, including oil, and a slide in the dollar's value.

What is likely to happen is that investors are investing away from commodities now, but that they will likely reinvest when oil becomes a "hot item" again, thus driving up oil prices once again.

So I would think that the crude oil price curves like those of Skrebowski and Ace represent an average price for crude oil moving forward, but that its price will undulate below and above that average price.

Retsel