Robert, thanks for the great summary and clear-cut argument against pre-election gasoline price manipulation. I am inclined to agree. However, this I'm still curious about some relevant questions, here outlined.

Here are the weekly gasoline prices going from the end of May to the beginning of November for the four election years 1996-2008 (Source: EIA):

Due to the much higher prices, the year 2008 is given its own axis, but with the same scale as used for the 1996-2004 price trendlines. And 2008, of course, hasn't reached November at this time. Interesting: Each election year has had higher prices than the previous one, a reflection of the growing cost of gasoline over the past decade. The "Ike spike" is quite evident in the 2008 trace.

Looking at two points in time--the price at Memorial Day and Election Day--might miss some important trends. Note that in all these elections years, the price of gasoline did fall at points through the summer. This brings to mind a few questions: How much does the price of gasoline have to fall to have a favorable influence on the voting populace (if there is even a favorable response due to the price of gasoline)? In 1996, losing a dime a gallon from $1.30 to $1.20 might have had a much more significant effect than in 2008 going from $3.50 to $3.40. I point this out because 1996 looks fairly flat, but did lose about a dime a gallon going into the summer.

Also, how long is the voting public's memory (probably short)? A downward trend through much of the summer, with some escalation late in the season, as in 2004, still might carry some favorable response, as the perception may be of lower prices going into the election. Maybe.

Here is, by the way, another way of addressing the price manipulation question:

These are the prices post-election for the three years 1996, 2000 and 2004. With rampant manipulation, prices might be expected to climb at some point post-election as more agreeable profit-making is resumed after the vote. Prices did not climb during the two months after the three elections. Indeed, during two of the years, prices continued to fall and in 1996 prices remained remarkably flat.

Anyway, thanks again Robert.

-best,

Wolf