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344 comments on DrumBeat: August 27, 2008

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westexas on August 27, 2008 - 9:20am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Linked uptop:

``No one could've predicted'' recent record energy prices, Guy Caruso, administrator of the agency, said today at a press conference in Washington sponsored by Platts.

I guess Matt Simmons, among others, has been declared to be a non-person. Our contribution, from our (Khebab/Brown) top five net exporters paper:

Declining net oil exports will inevitably result, absent a severe decline in demand in importing countries, in continued rapid increases in oil prices, as oil importing countries furiously bid against each other for declining oil exports.

Interesting that major oil companies continue to bail out of retail gasoline stations, despite assertions by some, such as ExxonMobil, that oil production won't peak for decades to come:

"Contrary to the theory, oil production shows no signs of a peak... Oil is a finite resource, but because it is so incredibly large, a peak will not occur this year, next year, or for decades to come"

ExxonMobil Advertisement in New York Times, June 2, 2006

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PaulusP on August 27, 2008 - 9:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"The economy is doing great"

"There is no housing bubble"

"We'll spread peace and democracy"

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totoneila on August 27, 2008 - 9:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Don't forget R-squared's + other TODer's earlier price bet either. IMO, both won their predictions at the $100 pricepoint Jan. 1st.

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tstreet on August 27, 2008 - 9:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No one could have predicted that this administration would be a disaster. Oh, wait. Does not Caruso realize the irony and utter stupidity of his comment?

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DownSouth on August 27, 2008 - 10:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

But look at what EIA's current predictions look like:

The agency currently forecasts oil prices will be between $120 and $130 a barrel for the rest of the year. According to the agency's annual energy outlook, prices will fall to a low of $57 a barrel in 2016 and then reach about $70 in 2030.

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GregTX on August 27, 2008 - 10:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

According to the agency's annual energy outlook, prices will fall to a low of $57 a barrel in 2016 and then reach about $70 in 2030.

That must be in the Saudi Arabia local market after the worldwide recession has stopped all trade. I think oil could easily see north of $1000/bbl before world trade falls apart.

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BrianT on August 27, 2008 - 10:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dinner for two at Wendys will cost $70 in 2030-at least your gas to drive there will be dirt cheap.

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GregTX on August 27, 2008 - 10:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think Wendy's business model breaks down around $10/sandwich?

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PaulusP on August 27, 2008 - 10:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

$70 in 2030 is after they erase 8 zero's from the 100 billion dollar bill.

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xeroid on August 27, 2008 - 10:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

prices will fall to a low of $57 a barrel in 2016 and then reach about $70 in 2030

Any sensible person knows that the future is unknowable in detail. The EIA is just letting other sensible people know, for sure, that they have absolutely no idea what the future price will be. It's just their politically correct way of saying it since their paymaster politicians have asked them to make a prediction.

The question is, are the politicians sensible people?

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BrianT on August 27, 2008 - 10:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I disagree-the EIA is making a loud public statement that they believe that oil will be so cheap in 2030 that any talk of oil supply is a total waste of time.

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Lynford on August 27, 2008 - 11:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Actually: It will be $57.28634 on May 17th 2016.

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Just Another Statistic on August 27, 2008 - 12:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This is pure craziness. Obviously oil is going to be $57.30 on the 16th... And 5 decimal places! Jesus. Even T. Boone Pickens only uses 4.

Seriously, I like Xeroid's take.

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westexas on August 27, 2008 - 10:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!"

http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/#quotes

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The Dude on August 27, 2008 - 10:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

DVD: The Best of Baghdad Bob. Information Ministers Gone Wild!

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344 comments on DrumBeat: August 27, 2008

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