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292 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure & Production Impacts/Models (Updated!--Thread 2)

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unrepentantcowboy on August 28, 2008 - 9:48am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

If I were bowling, this looks to be a perfect stike in the making.

Water temperatures in the gulf are favorable for this storm to intensify. I don't know how to post the map but here's a link.

http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/show/?file=../regions/gulfmexico/sst/noaa/...

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izzy on August 28, 2008 - 9:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There is a 5% chance of hurricane force winds in New Orleans, according to NHC.

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unrepentantcowboy on August 28, 2008 - 10:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I was referring to oil infrastructure.

As far as New Orleans, due to the counterclockwise rotation of the storm, as the storm approaches land, (under the current model) the wind will come from the east, straight into the mouth of the river.

It's not the wind, it's the rain.

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ace on August 28, 2008 - 8:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Gustav will impact oil infrastructure and production levels.

For the 2008 hurricane season, the EIA estimates that mean shut in production will be 20 million barrels. However, the EIA believes that the median shut in production of 11 million barrels is a better representation.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/forecasting/2008_sp_03.pdf

Below is an updated oil production forecast for the USA Gulf of Mexico showing recent hurricane outages.

click to enlarge

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BillJames on August 29, 2008 - 11:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Excellent

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steve from Virginia on August 29, 2008 - 10:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Today, it looks like cooler air will keep Gustav away from the New Orleans area. I wouldn't be surprised if Gustav winds up in Mexico.

The real question mark is Hanna. It is hard to see Hanna avoiding Florida.

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MadMaster on August 28, 2008 - 11:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Remember, it is 26.5C that is the important temp.

Above 26.5C and hurricanes grow. Below, and they decrease in size.

From that SST picture, the temperature seems to be between 29C and 32C.

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steve from Virginia on August 28, 2008 - 12:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think this is the key:

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&hours=24

If the cooler air (which is north and west of the big T-storms in the midwest) gets to the gulf coast before Gustav (which is off the map @ the lower right-hand corner), then that hurricane will likely drift to the west. The gulf energy platforms will be in Gustav's powerful North-East quadrant, but the shear would limit Gustav's intensity.

Hanna could turn more directly westward toward Florida. If there is an infill of cooler air, then the storm tracks would diverge, with Gustav tracking toward Texas then turning north over the plains and Hanna tracking west then turning north, perhaps moving out to sea without making landfall.

Official NHC has this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144513.shtml?5day#con...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144212.shtml?5day#con...

If the cooler air doesn't fill in, then Gustav will steer more towards New Orleans/Mississippi but will create shear that will limit Hanna's intensity.

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The Interloafer on August 28, 2008 - 1:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Florida could get hit by Hanna, or it could get hit by Gustav. If Florida manages to avoid a hurricane hit within the next 5-7 days, they will have "dodged a bullet."

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292 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure & Production Impacts/Models (Updated!--Thread 2)

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